Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-18 (section)

=== 18.1.5 Chapter Roadmap ===

<div id="h2-5-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div>

This chapter engages with understanding CRD and the pathways to achieving it by building on the concepts introduced in [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-1|Chapter 1]] of this Working Group II report, as well as the regional and sectoral context presented in other chapters ( [[#18.5|Section 18.5]] ). Notably, this chapter takes off where Chapters 16 and 17 end: recognising the significance of the representative key risks for CRD and the decision making context of different actors who are implementing policies and practices to pursue different CRD pathways and manage climate risk. Therefore, this chapter assesses options for pursuing CRD and the broader system transitions and enabling conditions in support of CRD.

This chapter hosts three Cross-Chapter Boxes, which have their natural home here. The Cross-Chapter Box on Gender, Justice and Transformative Pathways (Cross-Chapter Box GENDER) assesses literature specifically on gender and climate change to uncover the importance of a justice focus to facilitate transformative pathways, both towards CRD, as well as a means to achieving gender equity and social justice. The Cross-Chapter Box on The Role of Indigenous Knowledge in Understanding and Adapting to Climate Change (Cross-Chapter Box INDIG) highlights that achieving CRD requires confronting the uncertainty of a climate change future. There are many perspectives about what future is desired and how to reach it. Integrating multiple forms of knowledge is a strategy to build resilience and develop institutional arrangements that provide temporary solutions able to satisfy competing interests ( [[#Grove--2018|Grove, 2018]] ). Indigenous knowledge is proven to enhance resilience in multiple contexts (e.g., [[#Chowdhooree--2019|Chowdhooree, 2019]] ; [[#Inaotombi--2019|Inaotombi and Mahanta, 2019]] ). Meanwhile, Cross-Chapter Box FEASIB acts as an appendix to the WGII report, synthesising information on the feasibility associated with different adaptation options for reducing risk.

In assessing the opportunities and constraints associated with the pursuit of sustainable development, this chapter proceeds in [[#18.2|Section 18.2]] to assess the links between sustainable development and climate action, including examination of current patterns of development and consideration for synergies and trade-offs among different strategies and options. Then, in [[#18.3|Section 18.3]] , the chapter assesses five systems transitions to identify the shifts in development that would enable CRD. [[#18.4|Section 18.4]] assesses the role of different actors in the pursuit of CRD as well as the public and private arenas in which they engage. [[#18.5|Section 18.5]] synthesises CRD assessments from different WGII sectoral and regional chapters to identify commonalities and differences. The chapter concludes in [[#18.6|Section 18.6]] with a summary of key opportunities for enhancing the knowledge needed to enable different actors to pursue CRD.

<div id="box-18.1" class="h2-container box-container"></div>

'''Box 18.1 | Transformations in Support of Climate Resilient Development Pathways'''
<div id="h2-22-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div>

Transformational changes in the pursuit of climate resilient development pathways (CRDPs) involve interactions between individual, collective and systems change (Figures 18.1–18.3). There are complex interconnections between transformation and transition ( [[#Feola--2015|Feola, 2015]] ; [[#Hölscher--2018|Hölscher et al., 2018]] ), and they are sometimes used as synonyms in the literature ( [[#Hölscher--2018|Hölscher et al., 2018]] ). Much of the transitions literature focuses on how societal change occurs within existing political and economic systems. Transformations are often considered to involve deeper and more fundamental changes than transitions, including changes to underlying values, worldviews, ideologies, structures and power relationships ( [[#Göpel--2016|Göpel, 2016]] ; [[#O’Brien--2016|O’Brien, 2016]] ; [[#Kuenkel--2019|Kuenkel, 2019]] ; [[#Waddock--2019|Waddock, 2019]] ). Systems transitions alone are insufficient to achieve the rapid, fundamental and comprehensive changes required for humanity and planetary health in the face of climate change ( ''high confidence'' ). Transformative action is increasingly urgent across all sectors, systems and scales to avert dangerous climate change and meet the SDGs ( [[#Pelling--2015|Pelling et al., 2015]] ; [[#IPCC--2018a|IPCC, 2018a]] ; [[#IPCC--2021b|IPCC, 2021b]] ; [[#Shi--2021|Shi and Moser, 2021]] ; Vogel and [[#O’Brien--2021|O’Brien, 2021]] ) ( ''high confidence'' ). The SR1.5 identified transformative change as necessary to achieve transitions within land, water and ecosystems systems; urban and infrastructural systems; energy systems; and industrial systems. This box summarises key points in the transformations literature relevant to CRD.

Transformative actions aimed at ‘deliberately and fundamentally changing systems to achieve more just and equitable outcomes’, ( [[#Shi--2021|Shi and Moser, 2021]] : 2) shift pathways towards climate resilient development (CRD) ( ''high confidence)'' . Transformative action in the context of CRD specifically concerns leveraging change in the five dimensions of development (people, prosperity, partnership, peace, planet) that drive societal choices and climate actions towards sustainability ( [[#18.2.2|Section 18.2.2]] ; Figure 18.1). Climate actions that support CRD are embedded in these dimensions of development; for example, social cohesion and equity, individual and collective agency, and democratising knowledge processes have been identified as steps to transform practices and governance systems for increased resilience ( [[#Ziervogel--2016b|Ziervogel et al., 2016b]] ; [[#Nightingale--2020|Nightingale et al., 2020]] ; [[#Colloff--2021|Colloff et al., 2021]] ; Vogel and [[#O’Brien--2021|O’Brien, 2021]] ) ( ''high confidence'' ). Transformative actions towards sustainability and increased well-being, which are dominant components of CRD, include those that explicitly redress social drivers of vulnerability, shift dominant worldviews, decolonialise knowledge systems, activate human agency, contest political arrangements, and insert a plurality of knowledges and ways of knowing ( [[#Görg--2017|Görg et al., 2017]] ; [[#Fazey--2018a|Fazey et al., 2018a]] ; [[#Brand--2020|Brand et al., 2020]] ; [[#Gram-Hanssen--2021|Gram-Hanssen et al., 2021]] ; [[#Shi--2021|Shi and Moser, 2021]] ). They alter the governance and political economic arrangements through which unsustainable and unjust development logics and knowledges are implemented ( [[#Patterson--2017|Patterson et al., 2017]] ; [[#Shi--2021|Shi and Moser, 2021]] ) by shifting the goals of a system or altering the mindset or paradigm from which a system arises, for example, from individualism and nature-society disconnect to solidarity and nature-society connectedness along the CRD dimensions in Figure 18.1, and connecting inner and external dimensions of sustainability ( [[#Göpel--2016|Göpel, 2016]] ; [[#Abson--2017|Abson et al., 2017]] ; [[#Wamsler--2018|Wamsler and Brink, 2018]] ; [[#Fischer--2019|Fischer and Riechers, 2019]] ; [[#Horcea-Milcu--2019|Horcea-Milcu et al., 2019]] ; [[#Wamsler--2019|Wamsler, 2019]] ).

There is no blueprint for how transformation is generated. An expanding literature suggests that transformation takes place through diverse modalities and context-dependent actions ( [[#O’Brien--2021|O’Brien, 2021]] ). Transformation may require actions that disrupt moral or social boundaries and structures that are perpetuating unsustainable systems and pathways (Vogel and [[#O’Brien--2021|O’Brien, 2021]] ) ( ''high confidence'' ). Extreme events and long-term climatic changes can trigger a realigning of practices, politics and knowledge ( [[#Carr--2019|Carr, 2019]] ; [[#Schipper--2020b|Schipper et al., 2020b]] ) ( ''high confidence'' ). While some see opportunities for generating social and political conditions needed for CRD in such actions and events ( [[#Beck--2015|Beck, 2015]] ; [[#Han--2015|Han, 2015]] ; [[#Shim--2015|Shim, 2015]] ; [[#Mythen--2016|Mythen and Walklate, 2016]] ; [[#Domingo--2018|Domingo, 2018]] ), this is not guaranteed. Climate shocks, when managed within socio-political systems in ways that safeguard rather than alter practices and structures, can also reinforce rather than shift the status quo ( [[#Mosberg--2017|Mosberg et al., 2017]] ; [[#Carr--2019|Carr, 2019]] ; [[#Marmot--2020|Marmot and Allen, 2020]] ; [[#Arifeen--2021|Arifeen and Nyborg, 2021]] ) ( ''high confidence'' ). Further, in the absence of equitable and inclusive decision making and planning, realignments resulting from disruptive actions and events can limit inclusiveness and lead to poor or coercive decision-making processes that undermine the equity and justice foundations of sustainable development ( [[#Orlove--2020|Orlove et al., 2020]] ; [[#Shi--2021|Shi and Moser, 2021]] ) and lead to adverse socio-environmental outcomes that generate transformations away from CRD (Vogel and [[#O’Brien--2021|O’Brien, 2021]] ) ( ''high confidence'' , see also CROSS-CHAPTER BOX 2).

Evidence for transformative actions largely exists at the community or city level. While identifying how to rapidly and equitably generate transformations at a global scale has remained elusive, there is ''high agreement'' but ''limited evidence'' from studies of ecosystem services that suggest facilitating a wide range of locally appropriate management decisions and actions can bring about positive global-scale outcomes ( [[#Millennium%20Ecosystem%20Assessment--2005|Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005]] ). Diverse local efforts to transform towards sustainability in the face of climate change have been observed, such as community mobilisation for equitable and just adaptation actions and alternative visions of societal well-being ( [[#Shi--2020b|Shi, 2020b]] ) and farmer-led shifts in agricultural production systems ( [[#Rosenberg--2021|Rosenberg, 2021]] ). There has been an increase in transformative actions taking place through city-level resilience building aimed at shifting inequitable relations and opening up space for a plurality of actors ( [[#Rosenzweig--2018|Rosenzweig and Solecki, 2018]] ; [[#Ziervogel--2021|Ziervogel et al., 2021]] ) ( ''high confidence'' ).

<div id="_idContainer009" class="Box_Header-continued"></div>

Box 18.1

Prospects for transformation towards CRD increase when key governance actors work together in inclusive and constructive ways through engagement in political, knowledge-technology, ecological, economic and socio-cultural arenas ( ''high confidence'' , [[#18.4.3|Section 18.4.3]] ). Yet the interactions between key governance actors involve struggles and negotiations in addition to collaborations ( [[#Kakenmaster--2019|Kakenmaster, 2019]] ; [[#Muok--2021|Muok et al., 2021]] ). Transformative actions meet resistance by precisely the political, social, knowledge and technical systems and structures they are attempting to transform ( [[#Blythe--2018|Blythe et al., 2018]] ; [[#Shi--2021|Shi and Moser, 2021]] ) ( ''high confidence'' ). There is expanding evidence that many adaptation efforts have failed to be transformative, but instead entrenched inequities, exacerbated power imbalances and reinforced vulnerability among marginalised groups and that, instead, marginalised groups and future trends in vulnerability need to be placed at the centre of adaptation planning ( [[#Atteridge--2018|Atteridge and Remling, 2018]] ; [[#Mikulewicz--2019|Mikulewicz, 2019]] ; [[#Owen--2020|Owen, 2020]] ; [[#Eriksen--2021a|Eriksen et al., 2021a]] ; [[#Eriksen--2021b|Eriksen et al., 2021b]] ; [[#Garschagen--2021|Garschagen et al., 2021]] ) ( ''high confidence'' ). Beyond the enablers, drivers or modalities, another question tackled in the literature is how to evaluate transformation by establishing criteria for transformation assessments ( [[#Ofir--2021|Ofir, 2021]] ; [[#Patton--2021|Patton, 2021]] ; [[#Williams--2021|Williams et al., 2021]] ), experience-based lessons on managing transformative adaptation processes ( [[#Vermeulen--2018|Vermeulen et al., 2018]] ), climate policy integration ( [[#Plank--2021|Plank et al., 2021]] ), investment criteria ( [[#Kasdan--2021|Kasdan et al., 2021]] ) and political economy analysis frameworks for climate governance ( [[#Price--2021|Price, 2021]] ).

<div id="box-18.2" class="h2-container box-container"></div>

'''Box 18.2 | Visions of Climate Resilient Development in Kenya'''
<div id="h2-23-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div>

The government of Kenya’s (GoK) ambition through Vision 2030 is to create a globally competitive and prosperous country with a high quality of life by 2030. It aims to transform Kenya into a newly-industrialising, middle-income country providing a high quality of life to all its citizens in a clean and secure environment.

( [[#Government%20of%20Kenya--2008|Government of Kenya, 2008]] ). Dryland regions in Kenya occupy 80–90% of the land mass, are home to 36% of the population ( [[#Government%20of%20Kenya--2012|Government of Kenya, 2012]] ) and contribute about 10% of Kenya’s gross domestic product (GDP) ( [[#Government%20of%20Kenya--2012|Government of Kenya, 2012]] ), which includes half of its agricultural GDP ( [[#Kabubo-Mariara--2009|Kabubo-Mariara, 2009]] ). In dryland regions, pastoralism has long been the predominant form of livelihood and subsistence ( [[#Catley--2013|Catley et al., 2013]] ; [[#Nyariki--2019|Nyariki and Amwata, 2019]] ). The GoK seeks to improve connectivity and communication infrastructure within the drylands to better exploit and develop livestock, agriculture, tourism, energy and extractive sectors ( [[#Government%20of%20Kenya--2018|Government of Kenya, 2018]] ). It argues that the transformation of dryland regions is crucial to enhance the development outcomes for the more than 15 million people who inhabit these areas ( [[#Government%20of%20Kenya--2016|Government of Kenya, 2016]] : 17) and to help the country to realise its wider national ambitions including a 10% year on year growth in GDP ( [[#Government%20of%20Kenya--2012|Government of Kenya, 2012]] ). A key element within this vision is the promotion and implementation of the Lamu Port South Sudan Ethiopia (LAPSSET) project. The LAPSSET Corridor consists of two elements: the 500 meter wide Infrastructure Corridor where the road, railway, pipelines, power transmission and other projects will be located and the Economic Corridor of 50 km on either sides of the infrastructure corridor which will be contain other industrial investments ( [[#Enns--2018|Enns, 2018]] ). Supporters of the LAPSSET project argue that it will help achieve priorities laid out in the Vision 2030 by opening up poorly connected regions, enabling the development of pertinent economic sectors such as agriculture, livestock and energy, and supporting the attainment of a range of social goals made possible as the economy grows ( [[#Stein--2019|Stein and Kalina, 2019]] ).

However, the development narrative surrounding LAPSSET remains controversial in its assumptions, not least because it is being promoted in the context of a highly complex and dynamic social, economic and biophysical setting ( [[#Cervigni--2016|Cervigni and Morris, 2016]] ; [[#Atsiaya--2019|Atsiaya et al., 2019]] ; [[#Chome--2020|Chome, 2020]] ; [[#Lesutis--2020|Lesutis, 2020]] ). Some of the key trends driving contemporary and likely future change in dryland regions are changing household organisation, evolving customary rules and institutions at local and community levels, and shifting cultures and aspirations ( [[#Catley--2013|Catley et al., 2013]] ; [[#Washington-Ottombre--2013|Washington-Ottombre and Pijanowski, 2013]] ; [[#Tari--2014|Tari and Pattison, 2014]] ; [[#Cormack--2016|Cormack, 2016]] ; [[#Rao--2019|Rao, 2019]] ). Dryland regions are also witnessing demographic growth and change in land use patterns linked to shifts in the composition of livestock (for example from grazers to browsers), a decrease in nomadic and increase in semi-nomadic pastoralism, and transition to more urban and sedentary livelihoods ( [[#Mganga--2015|Mganga et al., 2015]] ; [[#Cervigni--2016|Cervigni et al., 2016]] ; [[#Greiner--2016|Greiner, 2016]] ; [[#Watson--2016|Watson et al., 2016]] ). At a landscape level, land is becoming more fragmented and enclosed, often associated with increases in subsistence and commercial agriculture and the establishment of conservancies and other group or private land holdings ( [[#Reid--2014|Reid et al., 2014]] ; [[#Carabine--2015|Carabine et al., 2015]] ; [[#Nyberg--2015|Nyberg et al., 2015]] ; [[#Greiner--2016|Greiner, 2016]] ; [[#Mosley--2016|Mosley and Watson, 2016]] ). In addition, there are political dynamics associated with Kenya Vision 2030 and decentralisation, the influence of international capital, foreign investors and incorporation into global markets ( [[#Cormack--2016|Cormack, 2016]] ; [[#Kochore--2016|Kochore, 2016]] ; [[#Mosley--2016|Mosley and Watson, 2016]] ; [[#Enns--2020|Enns and Bersaglio, 2020]] ), as well as increasing militarisation and conflict in the drylands ( [[#Lind--2018|Lind, 2018]] ). Allied to these social and political dynamics are ongoing processes of habitat modification and degradation and biophysical changes linked in part to climate variability ( [[#Galvin--2009|Galvin, 2009]] ; [[#Mganga--2015|Mganga et al., 2015]] ). The interconnected nature of these drivers will intersect with LAPSSET in myriad ways. For example, the implementation of LAPSSET may accentuate some trends, such as increases in land enclosure and a shift towards more urban and sedentary livelihoods ( [[#Lesutis--2020|Lesutis, 2020]] ). Conversely, the perceived threat LAPSSET could pose to pastoral lifestyles may lead to greater visibility, solidarity and strength of pastoralist institutions ( [[#Cormack--2016|Cormack, 2016]] ).

<div id="_idContainer011" class="Box_Header-continued"></div>

Box 18.2

There is a recognised need to adapt and chose development pathways that are resilient to climate change while addressing key developmental challenges within dryland regions, notably, poverty, water and food insecurity, and a highly dispersed population with poor access to services ( [[#Government%20of%20Kenya--2012|Government of Kenya, 2012]] ; [[#Bizikova--2015|Bizikova et al., 2015]] ; [[#Herrero--2016|Herrero et al., 2016]] ). The current vision for development of dryland regions comes with both opportunities and threats to achieve a more climate-resilient future. For example, the growth in and exploitation of renewable energy resources, made possible through increased connectivity, brings climate mitigation gains but also risks. These risks include the uneven distribution of costs in terms of where the industry is sited compared with where benefits primarily accrue, and may exacerbate issues around water and food insecurity as strategic areas of land become harder to access ( [[#Opiyo--2016|Opiyo et al., 2016]] ; [[#Cormack--2018|Cormack and Kurewa, 2018]] ; [[#Enns--2018|Enns, 2018]] ; [[#Lind--2018|Lind, 2018]] ). While LAPSSET will bring greater freedom of movement for commodities, benefitting investors, improving access to markets and urban centres, supporting trade or ease of movement for tourists supporting economic goals, it can also result in the relocation of people and impede access to certain locations for the resident populations. Mobility is a key adaptation behaviour employed in the short and long term to address issues linked with climatic variability ( [[#Opiyo--2014|Opiyo et al., 2014]] ; [[#Muricho--2019|Muricho et al., 2019]] ). With modelled changes in the climate suggesting decreases in income associated with agricultural staples and livestock-dependent livelihoods, development that constrains mobility of local populations could retard resilience gains ( [[#Ochieng--2017|Ochieng et al., 2017]] ; [[#ASSAR--2018|ASSAR, 2018]] ; [[#Enns--2018|Enns, 2018]] ; [[#Nkemelang--2018|Nkemelang et al., 2018]] ). The likely increase in urban populations and the growth in tourism and agriculture may lead to increases in water demand at a time when water availability could become more constrained owing to the reliance on surface water sources and the modelled increases in evapotranspiration due to rising mean temperature, more heatwave days and greater percentage of precipitation falling as storms ( [[#ASSAR--2018|ASSAR, 2018]] ; [[#Nkemelang--2018|Nkemelang et al., 2018]] ; [[#USAID--2018|USAID, 2018]] ). These pressures could make it harder to meet basic health and sanitation goals for rural and poorer urban populations, issues compounded further by likely increases in child malnutrition and diarrheal deaths linked to climate change ( [[#WHO--2016|WHO, 2016]] ; [[#ASSAR--2018|ASSAR, 2018]] ; [[#Hirpa--2018|Hirpa et al., 2018]] ; [[#Nkemelang--2018|Nkemelang et al., 2018]] ; [[#Lesutis--2020|Lesutis, 2020]] ). Development must pay adequate attention to these interconnections to ensure that costs and benefits of achieving climate mitigation and adaptation goals are distributed fairly within a population.

<div id="18.2" class="h1-container"></div>

<span id="linking-development-and-climate-action"></span>