Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

=== 9.1.1 Point of Departure ===

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This chapter assesses the scientific evidence on observed and projected climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation options in Africa. The assessment refers to five African sub-regions—north, west, central, east and southern—closely following the African Union (AU), but including Mauritania in west Africa and Sudan in north Africa because much of the literature assessed places these countries in these regions (Figure 9.1). Madagascar and other island states are addressed in Chapter 15.

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[[File:e420a7f86dddcb25cd88f179d2ed853b IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_9_001.png]]

'''Figure 9.1 |''' '''The''' '''five regions of Africa used in this chapter, also showing estimated population density in 2019.''' The population of Africa was estimated at 1.312 billion for 2020, which is about 17% of the world’s population but this is projected to grow to around 40% of the world’s population by 2100 ( [[#UNDESA--2019a|UNDESA, 2019a]] ). Although 57% of the African population currently live in rural areas (43% urban), Africa is the most rapidly urbanising region globally and is projected to transition to a majority urban population in the 2030s, with a 60% urban population by 2050 ( [[#UNDESA--2019b|UNDESA, 2019b]] ). The 2019 gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in constant 2010 USD averaged USD 2250 across the 43 countries reporting data, ranging from USD 202 (Burundi) to USD 8840 (Gabon), with 40% of the population of sub-Saharan Africa living below the international poverty line of USD 1.90 per day in 2018 ( [[#World%20Bank--2019|World Bank, 2019]] ). The highest life expectancy at birth is 67 (Botswana and Senegal) and the lowest is 52 (Central African Republic) [[#World%20Bank--2019|World Bank (2019)]] . Grid-cell population density data for mapping are from [[#Tatem--2017|Tatem (2017)]] ; [[#WorldPop--2021|WorldPop (2021)]] .

The contribution of Africa is among the lowest of historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions responsible for human-induced climate change and it has the lowest per capita GHG emissions of all regions currently ( ''high confidence'' ) (Figure 9.2). Yet Africa has already experienced widespread impacts from human-induced climate change ( ''high confidence'' ) (Figure 9.2; see Table 9.1).

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[[File:98f0b7bdf883e42d0fe77c1af99f8e16 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_9_002.png]]

'''Figure 9.2 |''' '''Historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends for Africa compared to other world regions:'''

'''(a)''' Per person GHG emissions by region and their change from 1990 to 2019 (circles represent countries, diamonds represent the region average).

'''(b)''' Total GHG emissions by region since 1990.

'''(c)''' The total GHG emissions in 1990 and 2019 for the 15 highest emitting countries within Africa.

'''(d)''' Total emissions in Africa since 1990, broken down by GHG (left) and sector (right). Methane and CO 2 emissions comprise an almost equal share of GHG emissions in Africa, with the largest emissions sectors being energy and agriculture ( [[#Crippa--2021|Crippa et al., 2021]] ). Agriculture emissions in panel (d) do not include land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF CO 2 ). One-hundred-year global warming potentials consistent with WGI estimates are used. Emissions data are from [[#Crippa--2021|Crippa et al. (2021)]] , compiled in Working Group III (WGIII) Chapter 2.

Since AR5 (Assessment Report 5), there have been notable policy changes in Africa and globally. The Paris Agreement, 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the Sendai Framework and Agenda 2063 emphasise interlinked aims to protect the planet, reduce disaster risk, end poverty and ensure all people enjoy peace and prosperity ( [[#AU--2015|AU, 2015]] ; [[#UNFCCC%20Paris%20Agreement--2015|UNFCCC Paris Agreement, 2015]] ; [[#UNISDR%20Sendai%20Framework--2015|UNISDR Sendai Framework, 2015]] ; [[#United%20Nations%20General%20Assembly--2015|United Nations General Assembly, 2015]] ). To match these interlinked ambitions, this chapter assesses risks and response options both for individual sectors and cross-sectorally to assess how risks can compound and cascade across sectors, as well as the potential feasibility and effectiveness, co-benefits and trade-offs and potential for maladaptation from response options ( [[#Simpson--2021b|Simpson et al., 2021b]] ; [[#Williams--2021|Williams et al., 2021]] ).

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