Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/SPM (section)

=== Complex, Compound and Cascading Risks ===

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'''B.5 Climate change impacts and risks are becoming increasingly complex and more difficult to manage. Multiple climate hazards will occur simultaneously, and multiple climatic and non-climatic risks will interact, resulting in compounding overall risk and risks cascading across sectors and regions. Some responses to climate change result in new impacts and risks. ( '''''high confidence''''' )   Expand Links to chapters 1.3, 2.4, Box 2.2, Box 9.5, 11.5, 13.5, 14.6, Box 15.1, CCP1.2, CCP2.2, CCB COVID, CCB DISASTER, CCB INTEREG, CCB SRM'''
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'''B.5.1''' Concurrent and repeated climate hazards occur in all regions, increasing impacts and risks to health, ecosystems, infrastructure, livelihoods and food ( ''high confidence'' ). Multiple risks interact, generating new sources of vulnerability to climate hazards, and compounding overall risk ( ''high confidence'' ). Increasing concurrence of heat and drought events are causing crop production losses and tree mortality ( ''high confidence'' ). Above 1.5°C global warming increasing concurrent climate extremes will increase risk of simultaneous crop losses of maize in major food-producing regions, with this risk increasing further with higher global warming levels ( ''medium confidence'' ). Future sea level rise combined with storm surge and heavy rainfall will increase compound flood risks ( ''high confidence'' ). Risks to health and food production will be made more severe from the interaction of sudden food production losses from heat and drought, exacerbated by heat-induced labour productivity losses ( ''high confidence'' ). These interacting impacts will increase food prices, reduce household incomes, and lead to health risks of malnutrition and climate-related mortality with no or low levels of adaptation, especially in tropical regions ( ''high confidence'' ). Risks to food safety from climate change will further compound the risks to health by increasing food contamination of crops from mycotoxins and contamination of seafood from harmful algal blooms, mycotoxins, and chemical contaminants ( ''high confidence'' ). { Figure TS.10c, 5.2, 5.4, 5.8, 5.9, 5.11, 5.12, 7.2, 7.3, 9.8, 9.11, 10.4, 11.3, 11.5, 12.3, 13.5, 14.5, 15.3, Box 15.1, 16.6, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP1.2 CCP1.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP6.2 CCP6.2] , , WGI AR6 SPM A.3.1, WGI AR6 SPM A.3.2, WGI AR6 SPM C.2.7 }

'''B.5.2''' Adverse impacts from climate hazards and resulting risks are cascading across sectors and regions ( ''high confidence'' ), propagating impacts along coasts and urban centres ( ''medium confidence'' ) and in mountain regions ( ''high confidence'' ). These hazards and cascading risks also trigger tipping points in sensitive ecosystems and in significantly and rapidly changing social-ecological systems impacted by ice melt, permafrost thaw and changing hydrology in polar regions ( ''high confidence'' ). Wildfires, in many regions, have affected ecosystems and species, people and their built assets, economic activity, and health ( ''medium to high confidence'' ) '''.''' In cities and settlements, climate impacts to key infrastructure are leading to losses and damages across water and food systems, and affect economic activity, with impacts extending beyond the area directly impacted by the climate hazard ( ''high confidence'' ). In Amazonia, and in some mountain regions, cascading impacts from climatic (e.g., heat) and non-climatic stressors (e.g., land use change) will result in irreversible and severe losses of ecosystem services and biodiversity at 2°C global warming level and beyond ( ''medium confidence'' ). Unavoidable sea level rise will bring cascading and compounding impacts resulting in losses of coastal ecosystems and ecosystem services, groundwater salinisation, flooding and damages to coastal infrastructure that cascade into risks to livelihoods, settlements, health, well-being, food and water security, and cultural values in the near to long-term ( ''high confidence'' ). (Figure SPM.3) { Figure TS.10, 2.5, 3.4, 3.5, Box 7.3, Box 8.7, Box 9.4, 11.5, Box 11.1, 12.3, 13.9, 14.6, 15.3, 16.5, 16.6, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP1.2 CCP1.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP2.2 CCP2.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.2 CCP5.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.3 CCP5.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP6.2 CCP6.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP6.3 CCP6.3] , Box [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP6.1 CCP6.1] , Box [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP6.2 CCP6.2] , CCB EXTREMES, WGI AR6 Figure SPM.8d }

'''B.5.3''' Weather and climate extremes are causing economic and societal impacts across national boundaries through supply-chains, markets, and natural resource flows, with increasing transboundary risks projected across the water, energy and food sectors ( ''high confidence'' ). Supply chains that rely on specialized commodities and key infrastructure can be disrupted by weather and climate extreme events. Climate change causes the redistribution of marine fish stocks, increasing risk of transboundary management conflicts among fisheries users, and negatively affecting equitable distribution of food provisioning services as fish stocks shift from lower to higher latitude regions, thereby increasing the need for climate-informed transboundary management and cooperation ( ''high confidence'' ). Precipitation and water availability changes increases the risk of planned infrastructure projects, such as hydropower in some regions, having reduced productivity for food and energy sectors including across countries that share river basins ( ''medium confidence'' ). { Figure TS.10e-f, 3.4, 3.5, 4.5, 5.8, 5.13, 6.2, 9.4, Box 9.5,14.5, Box 14.5, Box 14.6, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.3 CCP5.3] , CCB DISASTER, CCB EXTREMES, CCB INTEREG, CCB MOVING PLATE }

'''B.5.4''' Risks arise from some responses that are intended to reduce the risks of climate change, including risks from maladaptation and adverse side effects of some emissions reduction and carbon dioxide removal measures ( ''high confidence'' ). Deployment of afforestation of naturally unforested land, or poorly implemented bioenergy, with or without carbon capture and storage, can compound climate-related risks to biodiversity, water and food security, and livelihoods, especially if implemented at large scales, especially in regions with insecure land tenure ( ''high confidence'' ). { Box 2.2, 4.1, 4.7, 5.13, Table 5.18, Box 9.3, Box 13.2, CCB NATURAL, CWGB BIOECONOMY }

'''B.5.5''' Solar radiation modification approaches, if they were to be implemented, introduce a widespread range of new risks to people and ecosystems, which are not well understood ( ''high confidence'' ). Solar radiation modification approaches have potential to offset warming and ameliorate some climate hazards, but substantial residual climate change or overcompensating change would occur at regional scales and seasonal timescales ( ''high confidence'' ). Large uncertainties and knowledge gaps are associated with the potential of solar radiation modification approaches to reduce climate change risks. Solar radiation modification would not stop atmospheric CO 2 concentrations from increasing or reduce resulting ocean acidification under continued anthropogenic emissions ( ''high confidence'' ). { CWGB SRM }

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