Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/TS (section)

=== Food systems, food security and forestry ===

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'''TS.B.3 Climate change is already stressing food and forestry systems, with negative consequences for the livelihoods, food security and nutrition of hundreds of millions of people, especially in low and mid-latitudes (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). The global food system is failing to address food insecurity and malnutrition in an environmentally sustainable way.''' (Figure TS.2, Figure TS.3, Figure TS.6 FOOD-WATER, Figure TS.7 VULNERABILITY) { 4.3.1, 5.4.1, 5.5.1, 5.7.1, 5.8.1, 5.9.1, 5.10.1, 5.11.1, 5.12.1, 6.3.4.7; 7.2, 9.8.1, 9.8.2, 13.10, 9.8, 10.3.5, 12.3, 13.5.1, 14.5.1, 14.5.4, 15.3.3, 15.3.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.3 CCP5.2.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.5 CCP5.2.5] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2 CCP6.2.7] , CCB NATURAL }

'''TS.B 3.1 Climate change impacts are negatively affecting agriculture, forestry, fisheries and aquaculture, increasingly hindering efforts to meet human needs (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''')''' . Human-induced global warming has slowed the growth of agricultural productivity over the past 50 years in mid and low latitudes ( ''medium confidence'' ). Crop yields are compromised by surface ozone ( ''high confidence'' ). Methane emissions have negatively impacted crop yields by increasing temperatures and surface ozone concentrations ( ''medium confidence'' ). Warming is negatively affecting crop and grassland quality and harvest stability ( ''high confidence'' ). Warmer and drier conditions have increased tree mortality and forest disturbances in many temperate and boreal biomes ( ''high confidence'' ), negatively impacting provisioning services ( ''medium confidence'' ). Ocean warming has decreased sustainable yields of some wild fish populations ( ''high confidence'' ) by 4.1% between 1930 and 2010. Ocean acidification and warming have already affected farmed aquatic species ( ''high confidence'' ). (Figure TS.3, Figure TS.6 FOOD-WATER) { 2.4.3, 2.4.4, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, 4.3.1, 5.2.1, 5.4.1, 5.5.1, 5.6.1, 5.7.1, 5.8.1, 5.9.1, 9.8.2, 9.8.5, 11.3.4, 11.3.5, Box 11.3, 13.3.1, 13.5.1, 14.5.1, 14.5.4, 15.3.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.3 CCP5.2.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.5 CCP5.2.5] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.5 CCP6.2.5] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2 CCP6.2.8] , CCB MOVING PLATE }

'''TS.B.3.2 Warming has altered the distribution, growing area suitability and timing of key biological events, such as flowering and insect emergence, impacting food quality and harvest stability (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''')''' . There is ''high confidence'' that climate change is altering the distribution of cultivated and wild terrestrial, marine and freshwater species. At higher latitudes, warming has expanded the available area but has also altered phenology ( ''high confidence'' ), potentially causing plant–pollinator and pest mismatches ( ''medium confidence'' ). At low latitudes, temperatures have crossed upper tolerance thresholds, more frequently leading to heat stress and/or shifts in distribution and losses for crops, livestock, fisheries and aquaculture ( ''high confidence'' ). { 2.4.2, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, 5.4.1, 5.7.4, 5.8.1, 5.12.3, 9.8.2, 12.3.1, 12.3.2, 12.3.6, 13.5.1, 13.5.1, 14.5.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.5 CCP5.2.5] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.5 CCP6.2.5] , CCB MOVING PLATE }

'''TS.B.3.3 Climate-related extremes have affected the productivity of all agricultural and fishery sectors, with negative consequences for food security and livelihoods (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' The frequency of sudden food production losses has increased since at least the mid-20th century on land and sea ( ''medium evidence, high agreement'' ). The impacts of climate-related extremes on food security, nutrition and livelihoods are particularly acute and severe for people living in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, small islands, Central and South America and the Arctic and small-scale food producers globally ( ''high confidence'' ). Droughts induced by the 2015–2016 El Niño, partially attributable to human influences ( ''medium confidence'' ), caused acute food insecurity in various regions, including eastern and southern Africa and the Dry Corridor of Central America ( ''high confidence'' ). In the northeast Pacific, a 5-year warm period (2013 to 2017) impacted the migration, distribution and abundance of key fish resources ( ''high confidence'' ). Increasing variability in grazing systems has negatively affected animal fertility, mortality and herd recovery rates, reducing livestock keepers’ resilience ( ''medium confidence'' ). (Figure TS.6 FOOD-WATER) { 3.5.5, 4.3.1, 5.2.1, 5.4.1, 5.4.2, 5.5.2, 5.8.1, 5.9.1, 5.12.1, 5.14.2, 5.14.6, 9.8.2, 9.8.5, 13.5.1, 14.5.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2 CCP6.2] , CCB MOVING PLATE, WGI AR6 11.2–11.8 }

'''TS.B.3.4 Climate-related emerging food safety risks are increasing globally in agriculture and fisheries (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Higher temperatures and humidity caused by climate change increases toxigenic fungi on many food crops ( ''very high confidence'' ). Harmful algal blooms and water-borne diseases threaten food security and the economy and livelihoods of many coastal communities ( ''high confidence'' ). Increasing ocean warming and acidification are enhancing movement and bioaccumulation of toxins and contaminants into marine food webs ( ''medium confidence'' ) and with bio-magnification of persistent organic pollutants and methyl mercury already affecting fisheries ( ''medium confidence'' ). Indigenous Peoples and local communities, especially where food safety monitoring is underdeveloped, are among the most vulnerable to these risks, in particular in the Arctic ( ''high confidence'' ). (Figure TS.8 HEALTH) { 3.5.5, 5.8.1, 5.9.1, 5.11.1, 7.2.2, 7.2.4, 14.5.6, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2 CCP6.2.8] , CCB ILLNESS }

'''TS.B.3.5 The impacts of climate change on food systems affect everyone, but some groups are more vulnerable.''' Women, the elderly and children in low-income households, Indigenous Peoples, minority groups, small-scale producers and fishing communities and people in high-risk regions more often experience malnutrition, livelihood loss and rising costs ( ''high confidence'' ). Increasing competition for critical resources, such as land, energy and water, can exacerbate the impacts of climate change on food security ( ''high confidence'' ). Examples include large-scale land deals, water use, dietary patterns, energy crops and use of feed crops. (Figure TS.10 COMPLEX RISK) { 2.6.5, 4.8.3, 5.4.2, 5.5.2, 5.9.2, 5.12.2, 5.12.3, 5.13.1, 5.13.3, 5.13.4; 6.3.4, 9.8.1, Box 9.5, 12.3.1, 12.3.2, 14.5.2, 14.5.4, 14.5.6, 14.5.7, 14.5.8, 14.5.11, Box 14.6, 15.3.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.3 CCP5.2.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.5 CCP5.2.5] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2 CCP6.2.7] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2 CCP6.2.8] }

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