Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-1 (section)

=== 1.3.1 The 2015 Agreements ===

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In 2015 the world concluded four major agreements that are very relevant to climate action. These include: the Paris Agreement under the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the UN agreements on Disaster Risk Reduction (Sendai) and Finance for Development (Addis Ababa), and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

'''The Paris Agreement (PA).''' The Paris Agreement aims to ‘hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’ ( [[#UNFCCC--2015|UNFCCC 2015]] ), alongside goals for adaptation (IPCC AR6 WGII), and ‘aligning financial flows’ (see ‘finance goal’, below) , so as ‘to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change, in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty.’

The Paris Agreement is predicated on encouraging progressively ambitious climate action from all countries on the basis of Nationally Determined Contributions ( [[#Clémençon--2016|Clémençon 2016]] ; [[#Rajamani--2016|Rajamani 2016]] ). The NDC approach requires countries to set their own level of ambitions for climate change mitigation but within a collaborative and legally binding process to foster ambition towards the agreed goals ( [[#Bodansky--2016|Bodansky 2016]] ; [[#Falkner--2016|Falkner 2016]] a). The PA entered into force in November 2016 and as of February 2021 it already had 190 Parties (out of 197 Parties to the UNFCCC).

The PA also underlines ‘the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances’ (PA Art. 2, para. 2), and correspondingly that ‘developed country Parties should continue taking the lead by undertaking economy-wide absolute emission reductions’. It states that developing country Parties should continue enhancing their mitigation efforts, and are encouraged to move over time towards economy-wide emission reduction or limitation targets in the light of different national circumstances.

In order to achieve the its long term temperature goal, the Paris Agreement aims ‘to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century’ (PA Art. 4 para. 1). The PA provides for five-yearly stocktakes in which Parties have to take collective stock on progress towards achieving its purposes and its long-term goal in the light of equity and available best science (PA Art. 14). The first global stocktake is scheduled for 2023 (PA Art. 14, para. 3).

The Paris Agreement’s finance goal aims to make ‘finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development’ (PA Art. 2.1C). In keeping with the acknowledged context of global sustainable development and poverty eradication, and the corresponding aims of aligning finance and agreed differentiating principles as indicated above, ‘…the developed country parties are to assist developing country parties with financial resources’ (PA Art. 9). The Green Climate Fund (GCF), an operating entity of the UNFCCC Financial Mechanism to finance mitigation and adaptation efforts in developing countries ( [[#GCF--2020|GCF 2020]] ), was given an important role in serving the Agreement and supporting PA goals. The GCF gathered pledges worth USD10.3 billion, from developed and developing countries, regions, and one city (Paris) ( [[#Antimiani--2017|Antimiani et al. 2017]] ; [[#Bowman--2019|Bowman and Minas 2019]] ). Financing has since increased but remains short of the goal to mobilise USD100 billion by 2020 (Chapter 15).

Initiatives contributing to the Paris Agreement goals include the Non-State Actor Zone for Climate Action (NAZCA: now renamed as Global Climate Action) portal, launched at COP20 (December 2014) in Lima, Peru, to support city-based actions for mitigating climate change ( [[#IISD--2015|IISD 2015]] ) and Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action which is a UNFCCC-backed series of events intended to facilitate collaboration between governments and the cities, regions, businesses and investors that must act on climate change.

Details of the Paris Agreement, evaluation of the Kyoto Protocol, and other key multilateral developments since AR5 that are relevant to climate mitigation including the CORSIA aviation agreement adopted under ICAO, the IMO shipping strategy, and the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), are discussed in Chapter 14.

'''SDGs.''' In September 2015, the UN endorsed a universal agenda – ‘Transforming our World: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development’. The agenda adopted 17 non-legally-binding SDGs and 169 targets to support people, peace, prosperity, partnerships and the planet. While climate change is explicitly listed as SDG 13, the pursuit of the implementation of the UNFCCC is relevant for a number of other goals including SDG 7 (clean energy for all), SDG 9 (sustainable industry), and SDG 11 (sustainable cities), SDG 12 (responsible consumption and production) as well as those relating to life below water (SDG 14) and on land (SDG 15) ( [[#Biermann--2017|Biermann et al. 2017]] ). Mitigation actions could have multiple synergies and trade-offs across the SDGs ( [[#Pradhan--2017|Pradhan et al. 2017]] ) (Chapter 17) and their net effects depend on the pace and magnitude of changes, the specific mitigation choices and the management of the transition. This suggests that mitigation must be pursued in the broader context of sustainable development as explained in [[#1.6|Section 1.6]] .

'''Finance.''' The Paris Agreement’s finance goal (above) reflects a broadened focus, beyond the costs of climate adaptation and mitigation, to recognising that a structural shift towards low-carbon climate-resilient development pathways requires large-scale investments that engage the wider financial system (Sections 15.1 and 15.2.4). The SR1.5 report estimated that 1.5°C pathways would require ''increased investment'' of 0.5–1% of global GDP between now and 2050, which is up to 2.5% of global savings/investment over the period. For low- and middle-income countries, SDG-compatible infrastructure investments in the most relevant sectors are estimated to be around 4–5% of their GDP, and ‘infrastructure investment paths compatible with full decarbonisation in the second half of the century need not cost more than more-polluting alternatives’ ( [[#Rozenberg--2019|Rozenberg and Fay 2019]] ).

The parallel 2015 UN Addis Ababa Conference on Finance for Development, and its resulting Action Agenda, aims to ‘address the challenge of financing … to end poverty and hunger, and to achieve sustainable development in its three dimensions through promoting inclusive economic growth, protecting the environment, and promoting social inclusion.’ The Conference recognises the significant potential of regional cooperation and provides a forum for discussing the solutions to common challenges faced by developing countries ( [[#15.6.4|Section 15.6.4]] ).

Alongside this, private and blended climate finance is increasing but is still short of projected requirements consistent with Paris Agreement goals ( [[#15.3.2|Section 15.3.2]] .1). The financing gap is particularly acute for adaptation projects, especially in vulnerable developing countries. From a macro-regulatory perspective, there is growing recognition that substantial financial value may be at risk from changing regulation and technology in a low-carbon transition, with potential implications for global financial stability ( [[#15.6.3|Section 15.6.3]] ). To date, the most significant governance development is the Financial Stability Board’s Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) and its recommendations that investors and companies consider climate change risks in their strategies and capital allocation, so investors can make informed decisions ( [[#TCFD--2018|TCFD 2018]] ), welcomed by over 500 financial institutions and companies as signatories, albeit with patchy implementation (Sections 1.4. 4 and 15.6.3).

'''Talanoa Dialogue and Just Transition.''' Asmandated at Paris COP21 and launched at COP23, the ‘Talanoa Dialogue’ ( [[#UNFCCC--2018a|UNFCCC 2018a]] ) emphasised holistic approaches across multiple economic sectors for climate change mitigation. At COP24 also, the Just Transition Silesia Declaration, focusing on the need to consider social aspects in designing policies for climate change mitigation was signed by 56 heads of state ( [[#UNFCCC--2018b|UNFCCC 2018b]] ). This underlined the importance of aiming for Just Transitions in reducing emissions, at the same time preserving livelihoods and managing economic risks for countries and communities that rely heavily on emissions-intensive technologies for domestic growth ( [[#Markkanen--2019|Markkanen and Anger-Kraavi 2019]] ), and for maintaining ecosystem integrity through nature-based solutions.

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