Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-16 (section)

===== 16.5.3.4.3 Vulnerability trends in deltas =====

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Deltas are characterised by multi-faceted vulnerabilities of their environment and human populations. Over 200 indicators are being used in the literature to characterise and analyse vulnerability in deltas, spanning social, ecological and economic aspects ( [[#Sebesvari--2016|Sebesvari et al., 2016]] ). However, only a few studies model or dynamically assess trends in vulnerability, particularly for the future, at global scale, or take a comparative approach. But overall, a global trend assessment suggests that social vulnerability to climate hazards has been improving over the past years in all world regions hosting major deltas apart from Oceania, yet with emerging economies and developing countries in Africa showing less improvement than the Americas, Asia and Europe ( [[#Feldmeyer--2017|Feldmeyer et al., 2017]] ). An analysis of 48 major deltas finds that vulnerability therefore is a less dominant source of future increase in risk than exposure ( [[#Haasnoot--2012|Haasnoot et al., 2012]] ). However, case study research from individual deltas suggests that delta populations, particularly those with agriculture-based livelihoods, have seen more limited vulnerability reduction due in particular to the impacts of environmental hazards, stress and disasters ( ''high confidence'' ). In the Mekong Delta, for instance, the strong economic growth since the beginning of Vietnam’s reform process has not led to a reduction of vulnerability across the board for all socioeconomic groups ( [[#Garschagen--2015|Garschagen, 2015]] ). Rather, issues such as widespread landlessness or continued poverty have maintained and, in some respect, increased social vulnerability.

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