Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-17 (section)

=== 17.6.2 Strategies for Managing a Portfolio of Climate Risks ===

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Since WGII AR5, new methods for simultaneously considering multiple societal and sectoral objectives, climate risks and adaptation options have emerged ( [[#17.3.2|Section 17.3.2]] ; [[#Adam--2014|Adam et al., 2014]] ; [[#Hadka--2015|Hadka et al., 2015]] ; [[#Garner--2016|Garner et al., 2016]] ; [[#Rosenzweig--2017|Rosenzweig et al., 2017]] ; [[#Giupponi--2017a|Giupponi and Gain, 2017a]] ; [[#Stelzenmuller--2018|Stelzenmuller et al., 2018]] ; [[#Marchau--2019|Marchau et al., 2019]] ), including methods for accounting for different sources of uncertainty and types of risk ( [[#17.3.1|Section 17.3.1]] ; [[#Giupponi--2017a|Giupponi and Gain, 2017a]] ). Different decision-making approaches can be complementary ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#17.3.1|Section 17.3.1]] ; [[#Kwakkel--2016|Kwakkel et al., 2016]] ), and multiple approaches will likely be necessary in managing the risks across sectors, over different spatial scales, and over short to long time scales ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Cross-Chapter Box PROGRESS in this Chapter; [[#Girard--2015|Girard et al., 2015]] ; [[#Rouillard--2016|Rouillard and Spray, 2016]] ).

Deciding on which adaptations to adopt when managing climate risks inevitably needs examination of trade-offs in outcomes ( ''very high confidence'' ) (Sections 17.3.1, 17.5.1; Cross-Chapter Box FEASIB in Chapter 18). A current difficulty with integrated assessments is to develop a set of metrics that are appropriately scaled for the different sectors or outcomes to be compared (e.g., Sections 12.5.2.6, 17.3.1, 17.5.2; Cross-Chapter Box PROGRESS in this Chapter). For climate resilient development, dimensions of poverty, equity, justice and health need to be factored into analyses (Boxes 17.1, 17.5), many of which are difficult to quantify ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-18#18.2.4|Section 18.2.4]] ). Moreover, uncertainties on the interactions within and between sectors can make trade-off analyses uneven in their precision across sectors and uncertain as to the outcome of an implemented adaptation ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Sections 4.7.2, 17.4, 17.5).

Expertise and resources for using tools and approaches for integrated risk management vary between the developed and developing countries ( ''high confidence'' ) (e.g., [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-4#4.7.2|Section 4.7.2]] ). Exploration of adaptation scenarios can be derived from Earth System Models ( ''high confidence'' ) (e.g., Sections 4.7.1.2, 11.7.3.1). However, the feasibility of possible adaptations and the degree to which they are likely to be effective (Box 17.1) will require further exploration as success will depend on appropriate enabling conditions, including institutional support and capacity, available financial resources and knowledge, and suitable conditions for stakeholder participation ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#17.4|Section 17.4]] ). The current levels of uncertainty surrounding the effectiveness of many adaptation options ( [[#17.5.2|Section 17.5.2]] ; Cross-Chapter Box PROGRESS in this Chapter) means that decision-making approaches applicable to deep uncertainty (Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in this Chapter; [[#17.3.1|Section 17.3.1]] ) will apply in many if not most cases ( ''medium confidence'' ). An early step in identifying suitable integrated pathways for managing climate risks, establishing ‘no regrets’ anticipatory options in a timely manner, and avoiding path dependencies is to jointly map the steps for adapting to sectoral risks and determine suitable ways to avoid maladaptations arising ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#17.3.1|Section 17.3.1]] , Cross-Working Group Box URBAN in [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-6|Chapter 6]] and Cross-Chapter Boxes DEEP in this Chapter). The application of Dynamic Adaptive Pathway planning has been successfully used in this way in Australasia ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-11#11.7.3|Section 11.7.3]] ) and Europe (Sections 13.6.2.2, 13.10.2) ( [[#Lawrence--2019|Lawrence et al., 2019]] a; [[#Haasnoot--2020a|Haasnoot et al., 2020a]] ). Current experience suggests that synergies between sectors can save resources and effort ( ''limited evidence'' ) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-13#13.11.2|Section 13.11.2]] ). Iterative processes can then enhance adaptation programmes by including more detailed modelling, and updated knowledge as the experience is acquired ( [[#17.3.1|Section 17.3.1]] ).

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