Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-5 (section)

=== 5.8.4 Adaptation ===

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Adaptation options in land- and aquatic-based culturing food production systems include both governance actions and changes in the factors of production ( [[#5.4.4|Section 5.4.4]] , 5.5.4, [[#Reverter--2020|Reverter et al., 2020]] ). In contrast, adaptation options in fisheries are primarily concentrated in the socioeconomic dimension, especially governance and management ( [[#Brander--2018|Brander et al., 2018]] ; [[#Holsman--2019|Holsman et al., 2019]] ), and given the scale of the problem, there are relatively few intentional, well-documented examples of implemented tactical responses ( [[#Bell--2020|Bell et al., 2020]] ).

The proportion of fisheries operating at levels that are considered biologically unsustainable by the FAO has increased from 10% in 1974 to 34.2% in 2017 ( [[#FAO--2020d|FAO, 2020d]] ). There is ''high confidence'' that reducing stresses on marine ecosystems reduces vulnerability to climate change and augments resilience ( [[#Barange--2019|Barange, 2019]] ; Woodworth-Jefcoats et al., 2019; [[#Ogier--2020|Ogier et al., 2020]] ). Specifically, overfishing is the most critical non-climatic driver affecting the sustainability of fisheries, and therefore improving management could help rebuild fish stocks, reduce ecosystem impacts and increase the adaptive capacity of fishing ( ''high confidence'' ); ( [[#Barange--2019|Barange, 2019]] ; [[#Das--2020|Das et al., 2020]] ). Pursuing sustainable fisheries practices under a low-emissions scenario would decrease risk by 63%; in contrast, under the most extreme RCP8.5, both profit and harvest decline relative to today even under the most optimistic assumptions about global fisheries management reforms ( [[#Gaines--2018|Gaines et al., 2018]] ; [[#Sumaila--2019|Sumaila et al., 2019]] ; [[#Free--2020|Free et al., 2020]] ).

One adaptation strategy in the fishing sector is developing the capacity to recognise and respond to new opportunities that might arise from climate change by establishing a policy and planning setting that augments the fishers’ flexibility to change target species of fisheries or even engage in different productive activities. A key element would be the design and implementation of management schemes that consider flexible permits, sharing quotas, rethinking boundaries and reference points in response to system changes ( [[#Brander--2018|Brander et al., 2018]] ; Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter). Large-scale distribution and productivity changes of commercial fish species will demand the ability to implement cooperative fishing strategies ( [[#Cisneros-Montemayor--2020|Cisneros-Montemayor et al., 2020]] ; [[#Østhagen--2020|Østhagen et al., 2020]] ), and adjust multi-lateral treaties and other legal instruments used for managing shared transboundary ecosystems ( [[#Butler--2019|Butler et al., 2019]] ; Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter).

There is ''high confidence'' that making climate change and adaptive capacity a mainstream consideration in global, regional, environmental and fisheries governance structures can improve the response capacity to ocean change ( [[#Gaines--2018|Gaines et al., 2018]] ; [[#Bindoff--2019|Bindoff et al., 2019]] ; [[#Holsman--2020|Holsman et al., 2020]] ; [[#Ojea--2020|Ojea et al., 2020]] ). For example, spatial management that includes strategies such as Territorial Use Rights for Fishing (TURFs), locally managed marine areas (LMMAs) and customary tenure is an approach that has climate change adaptation potential in small-scale fisheries but will require adjustments in governing and managing institutions that allow them to be more dynamic and flexible ( [[#Le%20Cornu--2018|Le Cornu et al., 2018]] ). In regions where some of these measures have already been tested, institutional, legal, financial and logistical barriers to successful adaptation have been encountered, such as market failures stemming from uncertainty around new or emerging species, or policy barriers derived from the fact that the creation of scientific information needed to change regulations is likely slower than the pace of changes in stocks ( [[#Peck--2018|Peck and Pinnegar, 2018]] ).

Adaptation capacity is limited by the financial capacity of some countries ( [[#Bindoff--2019|Bindoff et al., 2019]] ). For example, in West African fisheries, adaptation costs associated with replacing the loss of coastal ecosystems and productivity is estimated to require 5–10% of countries’ GDP ( [[#Zougmoré--2016|Zougmoré et al., 2016]] ). For Pacific Islands and Coastal Territories, fisheries adaptation will require significant investment from local governments and the private sector ( [[#Rosegrant--2016|Rosegrant et al., 2016]] ), and reducing dependence on or finding alternatives to vulnerable marine resources ( [[#Johnson--2020|Johnson et al., 2020]] ; [[#Mabe--2020|Mabe and Asase, 2020]] ).

Adaptive capacity is strongly associated with social capital (i.e., the networks, shared norms, values and understandings that facilitate cooperation within or among groups) ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Stoeckl--2017|Stoeckl et al., 2017]] ; [[#D’agata--2020|D’agata et al., 2020]] ) and depends on to what extent stakeholders are aware of climate change and their perception of risk ( [[#Ankrah--2018|Ankrah, 2018]] ; [[#Martins--2018|Martins and Gasalla, 2018]] ; [[#Chen--2020|Chen, 2020]] ). Improving information flows allows for a more efficient co-management implementation ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Vasconcelos--2020|Vasconcelos et al., 2020]] ). Utilisation of local and Indigenous knowledge has the potential to facilitate adaptation ( [[#Bindoff--2019|Bindoff et al., 2019]] ), not only because it represents actual experiences and autonomous adaptations, but also because it facilitates reaching shared understanding among stakeholders and adoption of solutions. Challenges to hybridising local ecological knowledge and scientific knowledge include differences in stakeholder or governance perceptions about the validity of each knowledge set and issues of expertise and trust (Harrison et al., 2018). Engaging Indigenous Peoples and local communities as partners across climate research ensures this knowledge is utilised, enhancing the usefulness of assessments ( [[#Bindoff--2019|Bindoff et al., 2019]] ) and facilitating the co-construction and implementation of sustainable solutions ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Braga--2020|Braga et al., 2020]] ; [[#Bulengela--2020|Bulengela et al., 2020]] ). Building climate resilience in the fishing sector also involves recognising gender and other social inequities ( [[#Call--2019|Call and Sellers, 2019]] ), and ensuring that all stakeholders are equally involved in the adaptation plans, including their design and the capacity-building training programmes.

There is ''high confidence'' that, for the freshwater fisheries systems, the most immediate adaptation option is the effective linkage of fisheries management to the adaptation plans of other sectors, especially water management (hydropower, irrigation and the commitment to maintaining environmental flows) ( [[#Harrod--2018a|Harrod et al., 2018a]] ; [[#Kao--2020|Kao et al., 2020]] ). In some regions, organisations are already addressing this issue; for example, The Office of Water (OW) in the USA is aimed at ensuring that drinking water is safe while ecosystem is conserved to provide healthy habitat for fish, plants and wildlife; however, success strongly depends on the possibility of integrating the jurisdictional framework of different agencies ( [[#Poesch--2016|Poesch et al., 2016]] ), the implementation of effective monitoring programmes ( [[#Paukert--2016|Paukert et al., 2016]] ) and finding ways to incentivise the early restoration of degraded systems ( [[#Ranjan--2020|Ranjan, 2020]] ).

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'''Cross-Chapter Box: MOVING PLATE: Sourcing Food When Species Distributions Change'''
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Authors: H. Gurney-Smith (Canada/UK), W. Cheung (Canada), S. Lluch Cota (Mexico), E. Ojea (Spain), C. Parmesan (France/UK/USA), J. Pinnegar (UK) P. Thornton (Kenya/UK), M-F. Racault (UK/France), G. Pecl (Australia), E.A. Nyboer (Canada), K. Holsman (USA), K. Miller (USA), J. Birkmann (Germany), G. Nelson (USA) and C. Möllmann (Germany)

This Cross-Chapter Box, the ‘moving plate’, addresses climate-induced shifts and domesticated production suitability of food species consumed by people. Marine, freshwater and terrestrial systems are already experiencing species shifts in response to climate change ( ''very high confidence'' ) (see also Sections 2.4.2.1. and 3.4.3., Figure MOVING PLATE.1 this chapter), with subsequent impacts on food provisioning services, pests and diseases ( ''high confidence'' ) (see Box 5.8 and Cross-Chapter Box ILLNESS in Chapter 2). This Box highlights food insecurity and malnutrition of vulnerable peoples under climate change for both wild and domesticated aquatic and terrestrial species, and discusses challenges for adaptation and the roles that management (transboundary and ecosystem-based) can play to enable food security, reduce conflicts and prevent resource over-extraction.

Range contractions, shifts or extirpations are projected for terrestrial and aquatic species under warming, with greater warming leading to larger shifts and losses, where mitigation would therefore benefit climate refugia and reduce projected biodiversity declines ( [[#Smith--2018|Smith et al., 2018]] ; [[#Warren--2018|Warren et al., 2018]] ). Marine species are moving poleward faster than terrestrial and freshwater species, despite faster warming on land ( [[#Pecl--2017|Pecl et al., 2017]] ; [[#Lenoir--2019|Lenoir et al., 2019]] ; [[#Woolway--2020|Woolway and Maberly, 2020]] ), leading to new or exacerbated socioeconomic conflicts within and between countries (see Figure MOVING PLATE.1 this chapter, see Sections 13.5.2.2., 15.3.4.4., FAQ 15.3., [[#Mendenhall--2020|Mendenhall et al., 2020]] ). There is large variation in the magnitude and pattern of species shifts, even among similar species within a region, leading to changes in communities in a given region ( [[#Brown--2016|Brown et al., 2016]] ; [[#Pecl--2017|Pecl et al., 2017]] ). The number of extreme heat stress days are projected to increase for domesticated species like cattle (see Figure MOVING PLATE.1 this chapter), leading to shifts in suitable habitat for raising livestock in the open with associated impacts in animal productivity and the costs of adapting in Africa, Asia, and Central and South America ( [[#Thornton--2021|Thornton et al., 2021]] ).

Nutritional dependency, cultural importance, livelihood, or economic reliance on shifting species will increase impacts of climate change, especially for small-scale fishers (marine and freshwater), farmers, women and communities highly dependent on local sources of food and nutrition ( ''high confidence'' ) (see Figures MOVING PLATE.1 and MOVING PLATE.3 this chapter, Sections 3.5.3., 8.2.1.2. and 15.3.4.4, [[#McIntyre--2016|McIntyre et al., 2016]] ; [[#Blasiak--2017|Blasiak et al., 2017]] ; [[#Kifani--2018|Kifani et al., 2018]] ; [[#Bindoff--2019|Bindoff et al., 2019]] ; [[#Atindana--2020|Atindana et al., 2020]] ; [[#Hasselberg--2020|Hasselberg et al., 2020]] ; [[#Farmery--2021|Farmery et al., 2021]] ). Micronutrient concentrations from marine fisheries vary with species, providing higher concentrations of calcium, iron and zinc in tropical regions and higher concentrations of omega-3 fatty acids in polar regions ( [[#Hicks--2019|Hicks et al., 2019]] ). While consumption of smaller species rich in micronutrients may provide significant benefits against deficiencies in Asia and Africa, local dietary changes in fish consumption may be linked to food preferences, fish availability due to international trade or illegal fishing and competing usage of fish (see Figure MOVING PLATE.3 this chapter, [[#Hicks--2019|Hicks et al., 2019]] ; [[#Sumaila--2020|Sumaila et al., 2020]] ; [[#Vianna--2020|Vianna et al., 2020]] ). Industrial fleets are likely to switch target species ( [[#Belhabib--2016|Belhabib et al., 2016]] ) and inhibit small-scale fishers via illegal, unreported or unregulated fishing in EEZs ( [[#Belhabib--2019|Belhabib et al., 2019]] ; [[#Belhabib--2020|Belhabib et al., 2020]] ). Extreme events can exacerbate issues, as fisheries are frequently increasingly exploited as a coping mechanism under times of crisis, increasing illegal fishing activities and conflict among maritime users ( [[#Pomeroy--2016|Pomeroy et al., 2016]] ; [[#Mazaris--2018|Mazaris and Germond, 2018]] ). Spatial conflicts between artisanal and commercial foreign fishing fleets are already occurring in Ghana ( [[#Penney--2017|Penney et al., 2017]] ), and from climate-induced tropical tuna shifts in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean Islands (see [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-15#15.3.4.4|Section 15.3.4.4]] ., ( [[#Bell--2018|Bell et al., 2018]] a)). Properly managed small-scale fisheries can reduce poverty and improve localised food security and nutrition in low-income countries but will likely require restriction in the number of fishers, boat size or fishing days ( [[#Purcell--2015|Purcell and Pomeroy, 2015]] ; [[#Hicks--2019|Hicks et al., 2019]] ).

Shifting species have negative implications for the equitable distribution of food provisioning services, increasing the complexity of resolving sovereignty claims and climate justice ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Allison--2015|Allison and Bassett, 2015]] ; [[#Ayers--2018|Ayers et al., 2018]] ; Baudron et al.; [[#Ojea--2020|Ojea et al., 2020]] ; [[#Palacios-Abrantes--2020|Palacios-Abrantes et al., 2020]] ). Higher-latitude countries generally have higher GHG emissions and will benefit from poleward-migrating resources from tropical poorer and lower-emitting GHG countries ( [[#Free--2020|Free et al., 2020]] ). In this context, climate justice supporting fishing arrangements could offset socioeconomic impacts from exiting species ( [[#Mills--2018|Mills, 2018]] ; [[#Lam--2020|Lam et al., 2020]] ) and have negative implications particularly for small-scale operators ( [[#Farmery--2021|Farmery et al., 2021]] ), However, considerations of climate justice have not been used by Regional Fisheries Management Organizations (RFMOs) allocation shares to date ( [[#Engler--2020|Engler, 2020]] ). Species shifting from one historical jurisdiction to another may result in an incentivised depletion of the resource by the country the stock is shifting away from; reforming management to allocate resource sharing of quotas and permits or stock-unrelated side payments in bilateral or multilateral cooperative agreements may compensate or prevent loss ( [[#Diekert--2017|Diekert and Nieminen, 2017]] ; [[#Free--2020|Free et al., 2020]] ; [[#Ojea--2020|Ojea et al., 2020]] ; [[#Østhagen--2020|Østhagen et al., 2020]] ; Cross-Chapter Paper Polar 6.2.).

Strong governance, ecosystem-based and transboundary management are considered fundamental to ameliorate the impacts of climate change ( ''high confidence'' ) but may be limited in effectiveness by the magnitude of change projected under low or no mitigation scenarios (see Sections 2.6.2., 14.4.2.2. and 15.3.4.4., [[#Harrod--2018c|Harrod et al., 2018c]] ; [[#Pinsky--2018|Pinsky et al., 2018]] ; [[#Holsman--2020|Holsman et al., 2020]] ; [[#Ojea--2020|Ojea et al., 2020]] ). Flexible and rapid policy reform and management adaptation will help to meet sustainability targets ( [[#Nguyen--2016|Nguyen et al., 2016]] ; [[#Pentz--2020|Pentz and Klenk, 2020]] ), and may only be available for countries with the scientific, technical and institutional capacity to implement these ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Peck--2018|Peck and Pinnegar, 2018]] ; Figures MOVING PLATE.2 and 3 this chapter). Other adaptation options include ‘follow the food’ thereby migrating further ( [[#Belhabib--2016|Belhabib et al., 2016]] ), provision of alternative livelihoods ( [[#Thiault--2019|Thiault et al., 2019]] ; Cross-Chapter Box MIGRATE in Chapter 7, [[#Free--2020|Free et al., 2020]] ), increasing ecosystem resilience by rebuilding coastal mangroves ( [[#Tanner--2014|Tanner et al., 2014]] ; and Box 1.3) and riparian areas of freshwater ecosystems ( [[#Mantyka-Pringle--2016|Mantyka-Pringle et al., 2016]] ) and autonomous adaptations, such as harvesting gear modifications to access new target species ( [[#Harrod--2018c|Harrod et al., 2018c]] ; [[#Kifani--2018|Kifani et al., 2018]] ), practice change, and early-warning systems (see [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-11#11.3.2.3|Section 11.3.2.3]] ; [[#Pecl--2019|Pecl et al., 2019]] ; [[#Melbourne-Thomas--2021|Melbourne-Thomas et al., 2021]] ). Adaptive capacity will change with country, region, scale (commercial, recreational, Indigenous) of fishery, jurisdiction, and resource dependence (see Figure MOVING PLATE.2 this chapter for adaptation options for marine, freshwater and terrestrial systems). While shifting fishing fleets or herding may be an adaptation option to follow resources, limits to feasibility include institutional, legal, financial and logistical barriers such as costs of sourcing food and operational economic viability ( [[#Belhabib--2016|Belhabib et al., 2016]] ); this could potentially lead to maladaptation through increased GHG emissions from fuel usage and cultural displacement from traditional fishing and herding lands. Overall, decreases in GHG emissions under future scenarios would reduce increases in global temperatures and limit species shifts, thereby lowering the likelihood of conflicts and food insecurity ( ''high confidence'' ).

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Cross-Chapter Box: MOVING PLATE

'''Coastal Regions of the Gulf of Guinea: Ghanian Fisheries'''
Marine fisheries in Ghana are dominated by artisanal fishers with overfished stocks, high nutritional fish dependency, high illegal fishing, low governance capacity (−0.21 2018, ( [[#World%20Bank--2019|World Bank, 2019]] )) and low climate awareness in regional fisheries management (Figure MOVING PLATE.3 this chapter; see Chapter 9; [[#Nunoo--2014|Nunoo et al., 2014]] ; [[#Belhabib--2015|Belhabib et al., 2015]] ; [[#Belhabib--2016|Belhabib et al., 2016]] ; [[#Kifani--2018|Kifani et al., 2018]] ; [[#Belhabib--2019|Belhabib et al., 2019]] ). Artisanal fishing plays a pivotal role in reducing poverty and food insecurity, and the impacts of climate change will risk developing poverty traps (see [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-8#8.4.5.6|Section 8.4.5.6]] ., ( [[#Kifani--2018|Kifani et al., 2018]] )). Climate change induced species redistribution is a large risk to Ghanian fisheries, with projections of over 20 commercial fish species exiting the region with no new species entering under RCP4.5 by 2100 ( [[#Oremus--2020|Oremus et al., 2020]] ), and has already seen increases in warmer-water species with declining stocks. Adaptation options being applied are extending fishing ranges, increasing fishing effort (and cost) to access declining fish (with government fuel incentives) ( [[#Kifani--2018|Kifani et al., 2018]] ; [[#Muringai--2021|Muringai et al., 2021]] ), developing aquaculture for alternative livelihoods, implementing fleet monitoring to reduce illegal fishing, and developing a robust Fisheries Information and Management System that accounts for environmental and climate drivers ( [[#Johnson--2014|Johnson et al., 2014]] ; [[#FAO--2016|FAO, 2016]] ; [[#Kassi--2018|Kassi et al., 2018]] ). However, fisheries remain insufficiently regulated, there is a lack of a skilled workforce, and there is low access to credit; collectively, these factors limit options for artisanal fishers to find alternative sustainable employment ( [[#FAO--2016|FAO, 2016]] ).

'''Shifting Distributions of Freshwater Fishery Resources: Knowledge Gaps'''
Freshwater fisheries provide the primary source of animal protein and essential micronutrients for an estimated 200 million people globally and are especially important in tropical developing nations (see [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-9#9.8|Section 9.8]] , [[#Lynch--2017|Lynch et al., 2017]] ; [[#Funge-Smith--2019|Funge-Smith and Bennett, 2019]] .). There is evidence that freshwater fishes have undergone climate-induced distribution shifts ( [[#Comte--2015|Comte and Grenouillet, 2015]] ; see [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-9#9.8.5.1|Section 9.8.5.1]] .), and further shifts are projected as water temperatures rise and hydrological regimes change, with the largest effects predicted for equatorial, subtropical and semi-arid regions ( [[#Barbarossa--2021|Barbarossa et al., 2021]] ). Currently, the effects of distribution shifts on local fishery catch potential, food security and/or nutrition have not been quantified for any major inland fishery, representing a key knowledge gap for anticipating future adaptation needs for freshwater fishing societies. However, studies on fishers’ perceptions of climate-induced changes in fishery catch rates have revealed that using local knowledge to adjust management practices (see [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-12|Chapter 12]] Central and South America this volume; [[#Oviedo--2016|Oviedo et al., 2016]] ) and shifting gears, fishing grounds and target species (see [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-9#9.8.5.3|Section 9.8.5.3]] .; [[#Musinguzi--2016|Musinguzi et al., 2016]] ) can be effective adaptation options.

'''Terrestrial Species Shifts'''
There is ''robust evidence'' of shifts that terrestrial species have shifted poleward in high latitudes, with general declines of sea-ice dependent as well as some extreme-polar-adapted species ( ''high confidence'' ) (Arctic and Siberian Tundra, see [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-2#2.4.2.2|Section 2.4.2.2]] ., Cross-Chapter Paper 6), with often deleterious effects on the food security and traditional knowledge systems of Indigenous societies ( [[#Horstkotte--2017|Horstkotte et al., 2017]] ; [[#Pecl--2017|Pecl et al., 2017]] ; [[#Mallory--2018|Mallory and Boyce, 2018]] ; [[#Forbes--2020|Forbes et al., 2020]] ). Recent decades have seen declines in Arctic reindeer and caribou (see [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-2#2.5.1|Section 2.5.1]] ., Cross-Chapter Paper 6), and adaptation responses include utilisation of Indigenous knowledge with scientific sampling to maintain traditional management practices ( [[#Pecl--2017|Pecl et al., 2017]] ; Barber et al.; [[#Forbes--2020|Forbes et al., 2020]] ). Preserving herder livelihoods will necessitate novel solutions (supplementary feeding, seasonal movements), where governance, ecological and socioeconomic trade-offs will be balanced at the local level ( [[#Horstkotte--2017|Horstkotte et al., 2017]] ; [[#Pecl--2017|Pecl et al., 2017]] ; [[#Mallory--2018|Mallory and Boyce, 2018]] ; [[#Forbes--2020|Forbes et al., 2020]] ). Wild meat consumption plays a critical, though not well understood, role in the diets and food security of several hundred million people ( ''medium evidence'' ), for example in lower latitudes such as Central Africa and the Amazon basin ( [[#Bharucha--2010|Bharucha and Pretty, 2010]] ; [[#Godfray--2010|Godfray et al., 2010]] ; [[#Nasi--2011|Nasi et al., 2011]] ; [[#Friant--2020|Friant et al., 2020]] ). Although illegal in many countries, wild meat hunting occurs either in places where there is no or limited domesticated livestock production, or in places where shock events such as droughts and floods threaten food supply, forcing increased reliance on wild foods including bush meat ( [[#Mosberg--2015|Mosberg and Eriksen, 2015]] ; [[#Bodmer--2018|Bodmer et al., 2018]] ). Appropriate management of wild meat for reliant peoples under projected climate change will necessitate incorporating social justice elements into conservation and public health strategies (see Cross-Chapter Box ILLNESS in Chapter 2, Cross-Chapter Box COVID in Chapter 7, [[#Friant--2020|Friant et al., 2020]] ; [[#Ingram--2020|Ingram, 2020]] ; [[#Pelling--2021|Pelling et al., 2021]] ).

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'''Figure Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE.1 |''' '''Global vulnerabilities to current and projected climate change for living marine resources and cattle.'''

'''(a)''' Ocean areas are delineated into FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations) regions. Ocean sensitivity is calculated from aggregated sensitivities from [[#Blasiak--2017|Blasiak et al. (2017)]] S1 country data based on number of fishers, fisheries exports, proportions of economically active population working as fishers, total fisheries landings and nutritional dependence, which was subsequently re-analysed for each FAO region depicted here. Arrows denote projected average commercial and artisanal fishing resource shifts in location under RCP2.6 and under RCP8.5 (dark-blue and red arrows, respectively) scenarios by 2100. Text boxes highlight examples of vulnerabilities ( [[#Bell--2018|Bell et al., 2018]] a), conflicts ( [[#Miller--2013|Miller et al., 2013]] ; [[#Blasiak--2017|Blasiak et al., 2017]] ; [[#Østhagen--2020|Østhagen et al., 2020]] ) or opportunities for marine resource usage ( [[#Robinson--2015|Robinson et al., 2015]] ; Stuart- [[#Smith--2018|Smith et al., 2018]] ; [[#Meredith--2019|Meredith et al., 2019]] ).

'''(b)''' Projected changes in the number of extreme heat stress days for cattle from early (1991–2010) to end of century (2081–2100) under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, shown as arrows rooted in the most affected area in each IPCC sub-region pointing to the nearest area of reduced or no extreme heat stress. Arrows are shown only for sub-regions where &gt;1 million additional animals are affected. Areas in green are those with &gt;5000 animals per 0.5° grid cell in the eary 21st century ( [[#Thornton--2021|Thornton et al., 2021]] ).

[[File:166a924696e0e5aae00ce36103c8d6cc IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_5_Cross-Chapter_Box_MOVING_PLATE_2.png]]

'''Figure Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE.2 |''' '''Common adaptation options, limitations and potential for adaptation and maladaptation in aquatic and terrestrial species with climate-induced movement of food species and reliant peoples.'''

[[File:be0305f39f78e2341f0773992bbec52b IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_5_Cross-Chapter_Box_MOVING_PLATE_3.png]]

'''Figure Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE.3 |''' '''Global documented fisheries adaptive capacity to climate change and regional seafood micronutrient deficiency risk.''' Ocean areas are delineated into FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations) regions. Fisheries management adaptive capacity is a function of: averaged GDP World Development Indicators for 2018 ( [[#World%20Bank--2020|World Bank, 2020]] ); climate awareness assessments of 30 of the FAO recognised most recent RFMOs with direct fisheries linkages (see Supplementary Material SM5.5); governance effectiveness index based on six aggregate indicators (voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence/terrorism, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, control of corruption) from 2018 World Governance Indicator ( [[#World%20Bank--2019|World Bank, 2019]] ) data; and heterogeneity of countries within each FAO zone (highly heterogeneous regions are less likely to establish sustainable and efficient fisheries management for the entire FAO zone). Land area represents the percentage regional averaged seafood micronutrient deficiency risk of calcium, iron, zinc and vitamin A from 2011 data ( [[#Beal--2017|Beal et al., 2017]] ).

In terrestrial, marine and freshwater systems, human populations already impacted by poverty and hunger experience greater risk under climate change. Future food security will depend on access to other sustainable sources either via transnational agreements or resource/livelihood diversification. Sudden shocks across food production systems ( [[#Cottrell--2019|Cottrell et al., 2019]] ) can lead to increases in fisheries harvest and wild meat consumption, and following food species may result in community relocations or disruption and loss of access to historical places of attachment ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Pecl--2017|Pecl et al., 2017]] ; [[#Lenoir--2019|Lenoir et al., 2019]] ; [[#Meredith--2019|Meredith et al., 2019]] ; [[#Melbourne-Thomas--2021|Melbourne-Thomas et al., 2021]] ; see Cross-Chapter Box MIGRATE in Chapter 7). Ecosystem-based management approaches exist for terrestrial, marine and freshwater systems, but have proved successful only with early engagement of local small-scale, subsistence fishers/harvesters, utilising Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge and needs, in addition to those of larger-scale operators ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Huntington--2015|Huntington et al., 2015]] ; [[#McGrath--2015|McGrath and Costello, 2015]] ; [[#Huq--2016|Huq and Stubbings, 2016]] ; [[#Huq--2017|Huq et al., 2017]] ; [[#Raymond-Yakoubian--2017|Raymond-Yakoubian et al., 2017]] ; [[#Nalau--2018|Nalau et al., 2018]] ; [[#Raymond-Yakoubian--2018|Raymond-Yakoubian and Daniel, 2018]] ; [[#Pecl--2019|Pecl et al., 2019]] ; [[#Planque--2019|Planque et al., 2019]] ). Currently, there are large regional differences in climate literacy in RFMOs ( [[#Sumby--2021|Sumby et al., 2021]] ) which, when combined with low governance and GDP per capita, will limit adaptation capacity and increase vulnerabilities, particularly for tropical and subtropical regions already at increased risk due to poleward species migrations (see Figure MOVING PLATE.3 this chapter). Trade will be an alternative to compensate for the moving plate but has specific risks that can amplify inequities and maladaptation ( [[#Asche--2015|Asche et al., 2015]] ; [[#Vianna--2020|Vianna et al., 2020]] ).

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Cross-Chapter Box: MOVING PLATE

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