Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-13 (section)

==== 13.8.1.2 Migration and Displacement of People ====

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Most migration and displacement due to climate change is taking place within national borders and single regions (Cross-Chapter Box MIGRATE in Chapter 7). There is ''low confidence'' in climate change contributing to migration from outside Europe into Europe ( [[#Gemenne--2011|Gemenne, 2011]] ; [[#Topilin--2016|Topilin, 2016]] ; [[#Gemenne--2017|Gemenne and Blocher, 2017]] ; [[#Selby--2017|Selby et al., 2017]] ). Some economic models project that asylum applications to the EU might increase by a third at 2.5°C GWL and more than double beyond 4°C GWL by end of the century ( [[#Missirian--2017|Missirian and Schlenker, 2017]] ), but empirical evidence shows that applications might decrease due to growing economic and legal barriers in the capacity of populations to emigrate from Africa or other regions ( [[#Kelley--2015|Kelley et al., 2015]] ; [[#Zickgraf--2018|Zickgraf, 2018]] ; [[#Borderon--2019|Borderon et al., 2019]] ).

Migration of people within Europe is predominantly triggered by economic disparities among European countries ( [[#Fischer--2018|Fischer and Pfaffermayr, 2018]] ). There is ''limited evidence'' and ''low agreement'' for climate-driven impacts on these movements ( [[#Hoffmann--2020|Hoffmann et al., 2020]] ). Small-scale climate-induced displacement within Europe occurs in the aftermath of flood and drought disasters and over short distances ( [[#Cattaneo--2019|Cattaneo et al., 2019]] ). The unequal distribution of future climate risks ( [[#13.1|Section 13.1]] ) and adaptive capacity across European regions may increase pressure for internal migration ( [[#Williges--2017|Williges et al., 2017]] ; [[#Forzieri--2018|Forzieri et al., 2018]] ). For instance, projected SLR ( [[#13.2.1|Section 13.2.1]] ; Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3) may result in planned relocation of coastal settlements and inland migration in the UK, the Netherlands and the northern Mediterranean ( [[#Mulligan--2014|Mulligan et al., 2014]] ; [[#Antonioli--2017|Antonioli et al., 2017]] ). The number of people living in areas at risk in Europe is projected to increase with future SSPs increasing exposure ( [[#Merkens--2016|Merkens et al., 2016]] ; [[#Byers--2018|Byers et al., 2018]] ; [[#Harrison--2019|Harrison et al., 2019]] ).

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