Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-8 (section)

==== 8.4.2.5 Tropical Cyclones ====

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Tropical cyclones (TCs) projections are primarily assessed in [[IPCC:Wg1:Chapter:Chapter-11#11.7.1.5|Section 11.7.1.5]] . Here, we extend this analysis by assessing the implications of projected changes in tropical cyclones on the water cycle.

The AR5 concluded that TC rainfall rate was ''likely'' to increase through the 21st century. [[IPCC:Wg1:Chapter:Chapter-11#11.7.1.5|Section 11.7.1.5]] assesses that the average tropical cyclone rain-rate is projected to increase with warming ( ''high confidence'' ), and peak rain rates are projected to increase at greater than the Clausius–Clapeyron scaling rate of 7% °C <sup>–1</sup> warming in some regions due to increased low-level moisture convergence ( ''medium confidence'' ). The increase in TC rainfall rate is explained by increased TC intensity resulting from increasing SSTs, and increased environmental water vapour ( [[#Chauvin--2017|Chauvin et al., 2017]] ; M. [[#Liu--2019|]] [[#Liu--2019|Liu et al., 2019]] ).

Consistent with the observed poleward migration of tropical cyclone activity ( [[#Kossin--2014|Kossin et al., 2014]] ), in the SH a larger proportion of storms are projected to decay south of 25°S at the end of the 21st century but with negligible changes in genesis latitude and storm duration for the Australian region (CSIRO and BoM, 2015; [[#Sharmila--2018|Sharmila and Walsh, 2018]] ) . An analysis of projections for North Pacific islands indicate that the maximum intensity of storms will increase but the number of tropical cyclones will decrease in some places, such as Guam and Kwajalein Atoll in the tropical north-western Pacific, or remain the same in other regions like near Okinawa (Japan) or Oahu (Hawaii) ( [[#Widlansky--2019|Widlansky et al., 2019]] ). TC-induced storm tides affecting landfall in the Pearl River delta over South China are projected to increase by the end of the 21st century (J. [[#Chen--2020|]] [[#Chen--2020|Chen et al., 2020]] b)

In summary, there is ''high confidence'' that heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones is projected to increase, in response to well-understood processes related to increased low-level moisture convergence and environmental water vapour.

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