Editing IPCC:AR6/SROCC/Chapter-5 (section)

===== 5.5.2.2.3 Adaptation in fisheries and aquaculture =====

Sixty percent of assessed species are projected to be at high risk from both overfishing and climate change by 2050 (RCP8.5), particularly tropical and subtropical species (Cheung et al., 2018b). Overfishing is one of the most important non-climatic drivers affecting the sustainability of fisheries (Islam et al., 2013; Heenan et al., 2015; Faraco et al., 2016; Dasgupta et al., 2017; Cheung et al., 2018b; Harvey et al., 2018). Pursuing sustainable fisheries practices under a low emissions scenario would decrease risk by 63%. This highlights the importance of effective fisheries management (Gaines et al., 2018). Eliminating overfishing would, however, require reducing current levels of fishing effort, with a potential short-term reduction in catches impacting livelihoods and the food security of coastal communities (Hobday et al., 2015; Dey et al., 2016; Rosegrant et al., 2016; Campbell, 2017; Finkbeiner et al., 2018). Despite consensus on the effectiveness of eliminating overfishing in supporting climate change adaptation in fisheries ( ''robust evidence, high agreement)'' , successful adaptation outcomes remain aspirational.

Range shifts under ocean warming (Section 5.2.3) will alter the distribution of fish stocks across political boundaries, thus demand for transboundary fisheries management will increase. Redistribution of transboundary fish stocks between countries (Ho et al., 2016; Gourlie et al., 2017; Asch et al., 2018) could destabilise existing international fisheries agreements and increase the risk of international conflicts (Section 5.4.2). Adaptation to reduce risks in international fisheries management could involve improving planning for cooperative management between countries informed by reliable predictions (Payne et al., 2017) and projections (Pinsky et al., 2018) of species shifts and associated uncertainties. Cooperative international fisheries arrangements, such as flexible fishing effort allocation and adaptive frameworks (Colburn et al., 2016; Cvitanovic et al., 2016; Faraco et al., 2016) may also improve the robustness of fisheries management (Miller et al., 2013). Thus, although range shifts pose significant challenges to transboundary fisheries management, proactive planning and adjustment of fisheries management arrangements, informed by scientific projections, could help improve adaptive capacity ( ''medium confidence'' ). The effectiveness of incorporating MPAs as an adaptation strategy to climate change can be improved by considering climate impacts in the design of MPAs ( ''medium, high agreement'' ).

Improving integrated coastal management and better planning for MPAs by incorporating projected shifting biological communities, abundance and life history changes (Álvarez-Romero et al., 2018) due to climate change could contribute towards improved fisheries adaptive management by, for example, increasing resilience of habitats, providing refugia for species with shifting distributions and by conserving biodiversity (Faraco et al., 2016; Valmonte-Santos et al., 2016; Dasgupta et al., 2017; Le Cornu et al., 2017; Roberts et al., 2017; Asch et al., 2018; Cheung et al., 2018b; Harvey et al., 2018; Jones et al., 2018; O’Leary and Roberts, 2018) (Sections 5.2.3, 5.3, 5.4.1), but MPAs may also reduce access to subsistence fishers, increasing their vulnerability to food insecurity (Bennett et al., 2016; Faraco et al., 2016). The global area of MPAs is rapidly increasing towards the United Nations’ target of 10% of the global ocean. While this is encouraging, it is estimated that only 2% of the ocean is well enough managed, as described in (Edgar et al., 2014), to meet conservation goals (Sala et al., 2018). Improving the implementation and coordination of policies, and improving integrated coastal management and MPAs have emerged in the literature as important adaptation governance responses ( ''robust evidence, medium agreement'' ).

Governance responses to support adaptation in fisheries communities include conducting vulnerability assessments, improving monitoring of ecosystem indicators and evaluating management strategies (Himes-Cornell and Kasperski, 2015b; Busch et al., 2016). Socioeconomic factors like access to alternative income, mobility, gender and religion collectively shape a community’s adaptation response (Arroyo Mina et al., 2016). In West Africa, the industrial fishery response to climate change induced reductions in landings was the expansion of fishing grounds, which increased operational costs (Belhabib et al., 2016). This response is not available to artisanal and local fishing communities, who are considered highly vulnerable (Kais and Islam, 2017). Access to finance to support these communities or their governments could help them reach novel fishing grounds, and, therefore, potentially reduce their vulnerability. Food security linked to fisheries depends on stock recovery, but also on access to and distribution of the harvest, as well as gender considerations (Béné et al., 2015). Hence, granting preferential access to dependent coastal communities should be considered in examining policy options. Other adaptation responses include improved fishing gear and technology, use of fish aggregating devices and uptake of insurance products (Zougmoré et al., 2016) [see Barange et al. (2018) for a summary of possible adaptation responses]. Community response as a part of climate change adaptation for local fisheries is an important element in assessing adaptive capacity ( ''medium evidence, good agreement'' ),

Fisheries management strategies depend heavily upon data collection and monitoring systems. These include the accuracy of data collected in respect of predicting environmental conditions, over time scales from months to decades (Dunstan et al., 2018), effective monitoring and evaluative mechanisms (Le Cornu et al., 2017; Gourlie et al., 2018), controlling for aspects of fish population dynamics like recruitment success and fish movement (Mace, 2001). Seasonal to decadal  [https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/climate-prediction climate prediction]  systems allow for skillful predictions of climate variables relevant to fisheries management strategies (Hobday et al., 2016b; Payne et al., 2017). Effective fisheries adaptation responses will require knowledge development including better monitoring, modelling and improving decision support frameworks ( ''medium evidence, high agreement'' ) and improving forecasting and early warning systems ( ''medium evidence, medium agreement'' ).

In considering a participatory decision making approach for fisheries management that responds to climate change, Heenan et al. (2015){Heenan,  #274;Heenan, 2015 #274} provided a number of key elements that contribute towards a successful outcome. These include expert knowledge of climate change threats to fish habitats, stocks and landings, the necessity of transdisciplinary collaboration and stakeholder participation, broadening the range and scope of fisheries systems and increased commitment of resources and capacity. This was considered in the context of the ability of developing countries to sustainably exploit fisheries resources and related ecosystems. More research is required on socioecological responses to climate change impacts on fishery communities, including such aspect as like risk reduction, adaptive capacity through knowledge attainment and social networks, developing alternative skills and participatory approaches to decision making (Dubey et al., 2017; Shaffril et al., 2017; Finkbeiner et al., 2018). Important fisheries adaptation responses in relation to knowledge management include improving participatory processes ( ''robust evidence, high agreement'' ), integrating knowledge systems ( ''medium evidence, high agreement'' ), and stakeholder identification, outreach and education ( ''medium evidence, medium agreement'' ). Ecosystem-based adaptation, community participatory programmes, and improving agricultural and fisheries practices are very strongly supported in the literature ( ''high confidence'' ).

Less still is known about how climate change will affect the deep oceans and its fisheries (Section 5.2.3 and 5.2.4), the vulnerability of its habitats to fishing disturbance and future effects on resources not currently harvested (FAO, 2019). Johnson et al. (2019) concluded that in a 20- to 50-year timeframe, the effectiveness of virtually all north Atlantic deep water and open ocean area-based management tools can be expected to be affected. They concluded that more precise and detailed oceanographic data are needed to determine possible refugia, and more research on adaptation and resilience in the deep sea is needed to predict ecosystem response times.

As with fisheries, community- and ecosystem-based adaptation responses, an integrated coastal management framework is considered useful for planning for anticipated challenges for aquaculture (Ahmed and Diana, 2015b; Barange et al. 2018). Where ''in situ'' adaptation is not possible, translocation and polyculture (Ahmed and Diana, 2015a; Bunting et al., 2017) have been suggested as appropriate responses, but this would suit commercial rather than subsistence interests. Policy, economic, knowledge and other types of support are required to build socioecological resilience of vulnerable coastal aquaculture communities (Harkes et al., 2015; Bunting et al., 2017; Rodríguez-Rodríguez and Bande Ramudo, 2017), which requires a deep understanding of the nature of stressors and a commitment for collective action (Galappaththi et al., 2017). Climate resilient pathway development (see Cross-Chapter Box 2) is considered a useful framework for Sri Lankan shrimp aquaculture (Harkes et al., 2015). Another example of successful aquaculture adaptation is the employment of near real time monitoring technology to track the carbonate chemistry in water to reduce bio-erosion in shellfish from acidification (Barton et al., 2015; Cooley et al., 2016). Numerous adaptation responses are available for aquaculture, but some options, like translocation and technological responses may not be available to subsistence-based communities ( ''medium evidence'' ).

An example of eco-engineering-based adaptation option in seaweed aquaculture under climate change is

artificial upwelling, as shown by experiments and observations. Artificial upwelling powered by green energy (solar, wind, wave or tidal energy) to seaweeds (Jiao et al., 2014b; Zhang et al., 2015; Pan and Schimel, 2016) can moderate the amount of deep water upwelled to the euphotic zone to just meet the demands of nutrients and DIC by the seaweed for photosynthesis, while avoiding the acidification and hypoxia that often occur in natural upwelling systems (Jiao et al., 2018a; Jiao et al., 2018b) ( ''high confidence'' ). Such artificial upwelling based eco-engineering may also gradually release the ‘bomb’ of rich nutrients and hypoxia in the bottom water, which could otherwise breakout following storms (Daneri et al., 2012) ( ''high confidence'' ).

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