Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-6 (section)

=== Case Study 6.1: Urbanisation and Climate Change in the Himalayas: Increased Water Insecurity for the Poor ===

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The Hindu Kush Himalayan region extends over roughly 3500 km covering eight countries: Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, China, India, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Myanmar. Projections show that by 2050, more than 50% of the population in Hindu Kush countries will live in cities ( [[#UNDESA--2014|UNDESA, 2014]] ). The region is home to 10 major river basins that feed south and south-east Asia. In 2017, the total population in the 10 major river basins with their headwaters in the region was around 1.9 billion, including 240 million in the mountain and hills of the Hindu Kush (Wester et al., 2019). The region is characterised by unique mountain topography, climate, hydrology and hydrogeology. Each one of these factors plays an important role in determining the availability of water for people living in the Himalayas (Nepal, Flügel and Shrestha, 2014; Scott et al., 2019; [[#Prakash--2020|Prakash and Molden, 2020]] ). The total landmass that can support physical infrastructure for towns to develop is much less in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region as compared with the plains. Due to this physical constraint, the process of urbanisation is slow in the region. Only 3% of the total population in the region live in larger cities and 8% in smaller towns (Singh et al., 2019b). However, there has been an increase in urbanisation, largely due to regional imbalances in providing economic opportunities for the poor. People from rural areas are flocking to the nearest urban centres in search of employment and other economic opportunities ( [[#Singh--2019|Singh and Pandey, 2019]] ). As a result, the share of urban population is increasing in the region, while that of the rural population is declining.

One of the major challenges of urbanisation in the Himalayas is sprawling small towns with populations of under 100,000 (see Figure 6.6). These towns are expected to become major urban centres within a decade because of high growth rate. A recent study by [[#Maharjan--2018|Maharjan et al. (2018)]] on migration documented that 39% of rural communities have at least one migrant, of whom 80% are internal and the remaining 20% are international. Around 10% of the migration is reported as environmental displacement. Males account for the majority of the migration, which forms an important aspect of gendered vulnerability (Sugden et al., 2014; Goodrich, Prakash and Udas, 2019). The ever-expanding urban population in the Himalayas generates many challenges, especially in the context of climate change adaptation. First, unplanned urbanisation is causing significant changes in land use and land cover, with recharge areas of springs being reduced. Most of the towns in Hindu Kush Himalayan region meet their water needs using supplies from springs, ponds and lakes which are largely interlinked systems. Water insecurity in hill towns are becoming the order of the day (Virk et al., 2019; Bharti et al., 2019; Singh et al., 2019a; Sharma et al., 2019). Second, climate-induced changes in the physical environment include increased rainfall variability. Due to this, heavy rains are becoming frequent and are leading to more landslides. Third, global warming has increased the average temperature in the Himalayas which has caused glacier melt and subsequent change in hydrological regimes of the region. One of the contributing factors of glacial decline is also the deposition of black carbon (Gautam et al., 2020; Gul et al., 2021) which is contributed by burning of crop residue in Punjab (Kant et al., 2020). These critical stressors, climatic and non-climatic, are adversely affecting the socioecology of urban conglomerations in the region (Pervin et al., 2019). Encroachment or degradation of natural water bodies and the disappearance of traditional water systems such as springs are evident ( [[#Shah--2018|Shah and Badiger, 2018]] ; Sharma et al., 2019). While water availability in these towns has been adversely affected by the climatic and socioeconomic changes, demand for water has increased greatly (Molden, Khanal and Pradhan, 2018). Some of the towns are major tourist attractions that create a floating population in peak tourist seasons, challenging the carrying capacities of the towns. The residents must cope with water scarcity as the demand for water increases in peak seasons and water distribution through the public water supply systems becomes highly inequitable (Raina, Gurung and Suwal, 2018). The usual challenges of utilities being inefficient also applies in these areas, though it becomes much more critical as the sources of water are limited and the local geology limits the ability to access groundwater. All these processes are resulting in increased water insecurity for the poor and marginalised in urban towns of Hindu Kush ( [[#Prakash--2020|Prakash and Molden, 2020]] ). To cope with the scarcity situation, people are adapting through various means such as rationing of intra-household water access and groundwater extraction to access water supply (Virk et al., 2019; Bharti et al., 2019; Sharma et al., 2019). This is due to lack of long-term strategies and options provided by utilities.

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[[File:b08ac6c0f0d9912444c7ee8ecd3fdecb IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_6_006.png]]

'''Figure 6.6 |''' '''Urbanisation in Hindu Kush Himalayan Region.''' Figure based on Singh et al ''.'' (2019b)

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