Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-6 (section)

=== Case Study 6.2: Semarang, Indonesia ===

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The City of Semarang, on the northern coast of Central Java in Indonesia, has a population of nearly 1.8 million ( [[#CBS--2019|CBS, 2019]] ). The city has experienced rapid urbanisation over last three decades, with the population almost doubling and density reaching 4650 people per square kilometre ( [[#Handayani--2014|Handayani and Rudiarto, 2014]] ; Handayani et al., 2020b). Semarang is vulnerable to sea level rise, tidal flooding and inundation ( [[#Suhelmi--2018|Suhelmi and Triwibowo, 2018]] ; Yuniartanti, Handayani and Waskitaningsih, 2016), risks which are worsened by land subsidence along the coast (Abidin et al., 2013). Globally, land subsidence is a notable compounder of climate change-induced sea level rise and coastal flooding (Bagheri et al., 2021). In Semarang, the land subsidence rate is projected to be up to 60 mm yr −1 (Abidin et al., 2013; Bott et al., 2021). Approximately 20% of the city’s coastline is characterised as extremely vulnerable because of sea level rise and enhanced land subsidence (Husnayen et al., 2018), with the north-eastern portions of the city experiencing larger subsidence than the rest (Yastika, Shimizu and Abidin, 2019). Associated public health and sanitation risks are also evident, including increasing outbreaks of dengue fever and diarrhoea (Pratama et al., 2017; [[#Indonesia%20Ministry%20of%20Health--2020|Indonesia Ministry of Health, 2020]] ).

The City of Semarang first engaged with climate change in 2009, when the Rockefeller Foundation launched the Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network (ACCCRN), an initiative to develop resilience capacity across secondary and rapidly growing cities in South and Southeast Asia (Reed et al., 2015). Semarang was a pilot city for ACCCRN from 2009 to 2016, when it introduced a participatory approach to planning and decision making that challenged the government-dominated tradition in the city, and in turn played a key role in Semarang’s climate adaptation and resilience planning process (Orleans Reed et al., 2013; [[#Moench--2014|Moench, 2014]] ; [[#Kernaghan--2014|Kernaghan and Da Silva, 2014]] ). A City Team was formed in 2010 consisting of City Environmental Agency (BLH; ''Badan Lingkungan Hidup'' ), Regional Disaster Management Agency (BPBD; ''Badan Penanggulangan Bencana Daerah'' ), Water Resources Management Office (PSDA; ''Kantor Dinas Pengelolaan Sumber Daya Air'' ), Regional Planning and Development Agency (BAPPEDA; ''Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Daerah'' ), local universities and NGOs such as the Bintari Foundation, with technical support from Mercy Corps Indonesia ( [[#Nugraha--2018|Nugraha and Lassa, 2018]] ).

The City Team was first established within the City Environment Agency (BLH) but was then transferred to the Development and Planning Agency (BAPPEDA) ( [[#Lassa--2019|Lassa, 2019]] ). This corresponded to a shift in framing of climate change from an environmental priority to encompassing broader development issues such as economic development, housing and infrastructure delivery. By asserting that climate change affects the operations of every critical sector across the city, the number of municipal agencies involved in climate change programming increased significantly ( [[#Setiadi--2015|Setiadi, 2015]] ). Most notably, this approach helped the municipal health agency to recognise the relationship between climate change and health ( [[#Setiadi--2015|Setiadi, 2015]] ), and helped to shift the emphasis of dengue fever management toward a more proactive community-based health early warning system (Pratama et al., 2017). In 2017, these measures helped to reduced dengue fever infection rates by 56% compared with 2011–2016 levels ( [[#Indonesia%20Ministry%20of%20Health--2020|Indonesia Ministry of Health, 2020]] ). ACCCRN also supported policy experimentation through implementing rainwater harvesting facilities and a community-based flood early warning system ( [[#Archer--2015|Archer and Dodman, 2015]] ; Yuniartanti, Handayani and Waskitaningsih, 2016; [[#Sari--2018|Sari and Prayoga, 2018]] ). These projects were designed in conjunction with national government investments in flood management infrastructure, which led to a reduction in the city’s inundated area by 24% or approximately 1% of the total urban area ( [[#Semarang%20City%20Government--2016|Semarang City Government, 2016]] ).

Building on Semarang’s ACCCRN experience, the city then became a member of the Rockefeller Foundation’s 100 Resilient Cities (100RC) programme between 2016 and 2018. As in ACCCRN, this new process emphasised stakeholder involvement, with the previous City Team recast as a team of City Resilience Officers (CRO), which was in turn led by the City Mayor and received strategic advisory support from the City Secretary. Semarang synthesised its experiences in climate adaptation planning through the ''Resilient Semarang Strategy'' published in May 2016 ( [[#Semarang%20City%20Government--2016|Semarang City Government, 2016]] ). The ''Resilient Semarang Strategy'' (2016) acknowledged that urban resilience must be pursued in a comprehensive and inclusive manner and highlighted 18 strategies across 6 themes: water and new energy, new economy, disaster and disease, integrated mobility, transparency of public information and competitive human resource, to be mainstreamed into the revision of the Mid-Term Regional Development Plan (RPJMD, ''Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah Daerah'' ) of 2016–2021. City Resilience Officers were formally appointed to serve on the RPJMD team, thereby formalising climate resilience as a critical item on the RPJMD programme list.

Engagement with 100RC allowed Semarang’s resilience programmes to appear on 100RC’s ‘marketplace’ of municipal projects, allowing them to be connected with bi-/multi-lateral donor resources, while continuing to align projects with goals articulated within the Mid-Term Regional Development Plan. The 100RC marketplace is a ''resilience platform'' that showcases particular initiatives of 100RC network cities to potential ''resilience partners'' , thereby attracting investment and donor support to Semarang’s resilience programmes. Examples include the Water as Leverage (WaL) project that has been working to conserve urban water resources in the face of climate change since 2018 (Handayani et al., 2020a; Laeni et al., 2021) and the Transboundary Flood Risk Management through Governance and Innovative Information Technology Program (TRANSFORM) that has been helping Semarang tackle flood risks beyond city boundaries through reforestation and development of dry wells and swales in upstream areas, as well as promoting cross-region dialogue ( [[#Global%20Resilience%20Partnership--2018|Global Resilience Partnership, 2018]] ). Other collaborations focused on developing resilience indicators ( [[#ARUP--2018|ARUP, 2018]] ; Rangwala et al., 2018). For example, the Zurich Flood Resilience Program implemented resilience measurement tools in 16 sub-districts along the East Flood Canal. Results of the assessment were then used to develop local disaster contingency plans ( [[#Rangwala--2018|Rangwala et al., 2018]] ).

The conclusion of the Rockefeller Foundation’s formal engagement in Semarang in 2018 has brought forth questions about continued financial and institutional support for climate adaptation action in the city. Increasing land subsidence will also ''likely'' overwhelm current efforts to incrementally adapt to sea level rise and coastal flooding (Abidin et al., 2013). Still, the Semarang case study does highlight several key lessons for urban climate governance in secondary rapidly urbanising cities in the Global South. First, transnational institutions and partnerships are critical enablers ( [[#Aisya--2019|Aisya, 2019]] ; [[#Setiadi--2015|Setiadi, 2015]] ; Chu, Hughes and Mason, 2018; Handayani et al., 2020a). Institutions such as the Rockefeller Foundation foster programmes and investment in the city, leverage access to adaptation funding, accelerate climate mainstreaming into wider urban sectors, and promote better knowledge management ( [[#Setiadi--2016|Setiadi, 2016]] ). However, such opportunities are also supported by the city’s ability to further mobilise its own resources in the long term and remove its dependency on the national government and transnational supporters (Handayani et al., 2020a). Second, scaling up of programmes and replication of adaptation actions are increasingly important to close the gap between planning and implementation ( [[#Setiadi--2016|Setiadi, 2016]] ). It is evident that increased community empowerment and participation can help fill this gap ( [[#Hadi--2018|Hadi, 2018]] ; [[#Miladan--2016|Miladan, 2016]] ), but this must also be evidence-based to ensure its applicability and effectiveness (Suarma et al., 2018). Questions remain around how to determine and assess evidence-based participatory adaptation at the local level. Third, sustainable financing (from both external and internal sources) to support proposed adaptation strategies is essential as it allows for more capacity building, technology transfer and programme implementation in the long run (Handayani et al., 2020a; Laeni et al., 2021; [[#Hadi--2017|Hadi, 2017]] ). An example is the development of a water retention on the eastern coast of Semarang using a collaborative financing model, which helped further adaptation by protecting water resources for local industries as well as promote the idea of land value capture for community residents.

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