Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-9 (section)

===== 9.6.3.2.1 Global mean thermosteric sea level rise =====

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In AR5 and SROCC, global mean thermosteric sea level rise was derived from the 21 members of the CMIP5 ensemble that provided the required variables ( [[#9.2.4.1|Section 9.2.4.1]] ). The AR5 and SROCC removed drift estimated based on a pointwise polynomial fit to pre-industrial control simulations. They extended projections to scenarios not provided by the models by calculating the heat content of the climate system from GMST and net radiative flux, and converting this to global mean thermosteric sea level rise using each model’s diagnosed expansion efficiency coefficient. The AR5 and SROCC derived the associated uncertainties by assuming a normal distribution, with the 5th–95th percentile CMIP5 ensemble interpreted as the ''likely'' range. In this Report, global mean thermosteric sea level rise is derived from a two-layer energy budget emulator consistent with the assessment of ECS and TCR ( [[#9.2.4.1|Section 9.2.4.1]] ; Supplementary Material 9.SM.4.2 and 9.SM.4.3). Despite the change in methodology, this leads to a ''likely'' global mean thermosteric contribution (17th–83rd percentile) between 1995–2014 and 2100 that represents a minimal change from AR5 and SROCC (Table 9.8).

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