Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-5 (section)

===== 5.9.3.2.1 Finfish culture =====

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Global projections of ocean warming, primary productivity and ocean acidification predict suitable habitat expansions and short-term growth benefits for finfish aquaculture for some regions ( ''medium confidence'' ) (see Figure 5.15) until thermal tolerances or productivity constraints are exceeded by 2090 ( [[#Beveridge--2018b|Beveridge et al., 2018b]] ; [[#Dabbadie--2018|Dabbadie et al., 2018]] ; [[#Froehlich--2018a|Froehlich et al., 2018a]] ; [[#Catalán--2019|Catalán et al., 2019]] ; [[#Thiault--2019|Thiault et al., 2019]] ; [[#Falconer--2020a|Falconer et al., 2020a]] ). Sensitivities for marine finfish may be high even under +1.5–2.0°C ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Gattuso--2018|Gattuso et al., 2018]] ), resulting in finfish farms moving northward to maintain productivity (e.g., Arctic ( [[#Troell--2017|Troell et al., 2017]] )). Downscaled projections of regionally specific tolerances ( [[#Klinger--2017|Klinger et al., 2017]] ) may be particularly useful for management and planning; a 0.5°C rise is predicted for Chilean salmon aquaculture ( [[#Soto--2019|Soto et al., 2019]] ), and potential negative impacts on productivity in Norway by 2029 have been projected ( ''limited evidence'' ) ( [[#Falconer--2020a|Falconer et al., 2020a]] ). Marine heatwaves are predicted to increase in occurrence, intensity and persistence under RCP4.5 or RCP8.5 by 2100 ( [[#Oliver--2019|Oliver et al., 2019]] ; [[#Bricknell--2021|Bricknell et al., 2021]] ), with risk partly mitigated by husbandry ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#McCoy--2017|McCoy et al., 2017]] ). Generally, negative impacts are predicted for marine species, with residual risk increasing with level of exposure ( [[#Sara--2018|Sara et al., 2018]] ; [[#Smale--2019|Smale et al., 2019]] ), where warming will affect oxygen solubility and reduce salmon culture capacity ( ''limited evidence'' ) ( [[#Aksnes--2019|Aksnes et al., 2019]] , Chapter 3) and combine with increasing incidence of HABs ( ''high confidence'' ) resulting in negative impacts for food security and nutrition and health ( [[#Oppenheimer--2019|Oppenheimer et al., 2019]] ; [[#Colombo--2020|Colombo et al., 2020]] ; [[#Glibert--2020|Glibert, 2020]] ; [[#Raven--2020|Raven et al., 2020]] ). Climate change is predicted to affect the incidence, magnitude and virulence of finfish disease such as ''Vibriosis'' ( [[#Barber--2016|Barber et al., 2016]] ; [[#Mohamad--2019a|Mohamad et al., 2019a]] ; [[#Mohamad--2019b|Mohamad et al., 2019b]] ), but specific host–pathogen–climate relationships are not yet established ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Slenning--2010|Slenning, 2010]] ; [[#Marcogliese--2016|Marcogliese, 2016]] ; [[#Montanchez--2019|Montanchez et al., 2019]] ; [[#Bandin--2020|Bandin and Souto, 2020]] ; [[#Behringer--2020|Behringer et al., 2020]] ; [[#Filipe--2020|Filipe et al., 2020]] ; [[#Montanchez--2020|Montanchez and Kaberdin, 2020]] ). Projected climate change will also increase competition for feed ingredients between aquatic and terrestrial animal production systems (see [[#5.13.2|Section 5.13.2]] .).

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