Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-5 (section)

===== 5.9.3.2.2 Shellfish culture =====

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Globally, there is overall ''high confidence'' that suitable shellfish aquaculture habitat will decline by 2100 under projected warming, ocean acidification and primary productivity changes, with significant negative impacts for some regions and species before 2100 (Table 5.9, [[#Froehlich--2018a|Froehlich et al., 2018a]] ; [[#Ghezzo--2018|Ghezzo et al., 2018]] ). Shellfish growth will increase with warming waters until tolerances are reached, such as through extreme El Niño events ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Beveridge--2018b|Beveridge et al., 2018b]] ; [[#Dabbadie--2018|Dabbadie et al., 2018]] ; [[#Liu--2018b|Liu et al., 2018b]] ; [[#Liu--2020|Liu et al., 2020]] ). Rising temperatures and ocean acidification will result in losses of primary productivity and farmed species from tropical and subtropical regions, and gains in higher latitudes ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Froehlich--2018a|Froehlich et al., 2018a]] ; [[#Aveytua-Alcazar--2020|Aveytua-Alcazar et al., 2020]] ; [[#Chapman--2020|Chapman et al., 2020]] ; [[#Des--2020|Des et al., 2020]] ; [[#Oyinlola--2020|Oyinlola et al., 2020]] ), but net marine production gains could be achieved under strong mitigation ( [[#Thiault--2019|Thiault et al., 2019]] ). Shellfish ''Vibrio'' infections will increase with warming waters and extreme events, increasing shellfish mortalities ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Green--2019|Green et al., 2019]] ; [[#Montanchez--2019|Montanchez et al., 2019]] ), with ocean acidification impairing immune responses ( ''limited evidence'' ) ( [[#Cao--2018b|Cao et al., 2018b]] ). Bivalve larvae are known to be highly vulnerable to ocean acidification ( ''high confidence'' ) (see [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-3#3.3|Section 3.3]] , [[#Bindoff--2019|Bindoff et al., 2019]] ), with projected regional and species-specific levels of impact ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Ekstrom--2015|Ekstrom et al., 2015]] ; [[#Zhang--2017b|Zhang et al., 2017b]] ; [[#Mangi--2018|Mangi et al., 2018]] ) ( [[#Greenhill--2020|Greenhill et al., 2020]] ). Ocean acidification is also projected to weaken shells, affecting productivity and processing ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Martinez--2018|Martinez et al., 2018]] ; [[#Cummings--2019|Cummings et al., 2019]] ) and dependent livelihoods ( [[#Doney--2020|Doney et al., 2020]] ).

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