Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-7 (section)

==== 7.4.2.8 Adaptation Options to Facilitate Early-Warning and Response Systems ====

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''Early warning systems are a potentially valuable tool in adapting to climate-related risks associated with infectious diseases when based on forecasts with high skill and when there are effective responses within the time frame of the forecast'' ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' Through advanced seasonal weather forecasting that draws upon established associations between weather/climate and infection/transmission conditions, conditions conducive to disease outbreaks can be identified months in advance, providing time to implement effective population health responses ( [[#Morin--2018|Morin et al., 2018]] ). Most current early warning systems are focused on malaria and dengue but there are examples for other diseases, such as an early warning system developed for ''Vibrios'' monitoring in the Baltic Sea ( [[#Semenza--2017|Semenza et al., 2017]] ). An early warning system for dengue outbreaks in Colombia based on temperature, precipitation and humidity successfully detected 75% of all outbreaks between one and five months in advance, detecting 12.5% in the same month ( [[#Lee--2017b|Lee et al., 2017b]] ). Dengue warning systems in Brazil, Malaysia and Mexico have generated satisfactory results ( [[#Hussain-Alkhateeb--2018|Hussain-Alkhateeb et al., 2018]] ). An effective early warning system for malaria was implemented in the Amhara region of Ethiopia ( [[#Merkord--2017|Merkord et al., 2017]] ).

''Early warning systems are effective at detecting and potentially reducing food security and nutrition risks'' ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' Examples of proven systems include the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning System, the Food and Agricultural Organization’s Global Information and Early Warning System and the World Food Programme’s Corporate Alert System. Such systems are fundamental for anticipating when a crisis might occur and setting priorities for interventions ( [[#Funk--2019|Funk et al., 2019]] ). Financial investments to develop early warning systems are cost-effective and reduce human suffering ( [[#Choularton--2019|Choularton and Krishnamurthy, 2019]] ) ( ''high confidence'' ). For instance, during the 2017 drought-induced food crisis in Kenya, 500,000 fewer people required humanitarian assistance than would have been expected based on past experiences; this was largely due to timely and effective interventions triggered by the early warning ( [[#Funk--2018|Funk et al., 2018]] ).

Early warning systems have been established for other climate-sensitive health outcomes, such as respiratory diseases associated with air pollution ( [[#Shih--2019|Shih et al., 2019]] ; [[#Li--2018|Li and Zhu, 2018]] ; [[#Yang--2017|Yang and Wang, 2017]] ). Early warning systems for non-heat extreme weather and climate events, such as storms and floods, are designed to protect human health and well-being; disaster risk management organisations and institutions typically communicate these warnings through their networks. Research is ongoing to extend the time period for warnings.

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