Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

==== 9.6.2.5 Climate Change and Ecosystem Services ====

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Direct human dependence on provisioning ecosystem services in Africa is high ( [[#Egoh--2012|Egoh et al., 2012]] ; [[#IPBES--2018|IPBES, 2018]] ). For example, natural forests provided 21% of rural household income across 11 African countries ( [[#Angelsen--2014|Angelsen et al., 2014]] ) and wild-harvested foods (including fisheries) provide important nutrition to millions of Africans, including through important micronutrients and increased dietary diversity (Sections 9.8.2.3; 9.8.5; [[#Powell--2013|Powell et al., 2013]] ; [[#Baudron--2019a|Baudron et al., 2019a]] ).

Climate change has affected ecosystem services in Africa by reducing fish stocks, crop and livestock productivity, and water provisioning due to heat and drought (see Sections 9.8.2.1; 9.8.2.2; 9.8.2.4; 9.8.5.1). Woody encroachment is decreasing cattle production and water supply ( [[#Smit--2015|Smit and Prins, 2015]] ; [[#Stafford--2017|Stafford et al., 2017]] ), but can also provide forage for goat production, as well as resins, fuelwood and charcoal ( [[#Reed--2015|Reed et al., 2015]] ; [[#Stafford--2017|Stafford et al., 2017]] ; [[#Charis--2019|Charis et al., 2019]] ). Local communities perceive climate change to have decreased crop and livestock productivity, reduced wild food availability and reduced forest resources across Africa (see Sections 9.8.2.1; 9.8.2.2; 9.8.2.4; 9.8.2.3; [[#Onyekuru--2014|Onyekuru and Marchant, 2014]] ).

With global warming &gt;3°C, and with high population growth and agricultural expansion (SSP3, 2081–2100), 1.2 billion Africans are projected to be negatively affected by pollution of drinking water from reduced water quality regulation by ecosystems and 27 million people affected by reduced coastal protection by ecosystems ( [[#Chaplin-Kramer--2019|Chaplin-Kramer et al., 2019]] ). The number of people affected reduces to 0.4 billion and 22 million, respectively, under a sustainable development scenario with global warming below 2°C (SSP1, 2081–2100). The African tropical forest carbon sink has been more resilient than Amazonia to recent warming but may already have peaked, and this service is predicted to decline with further warming, reducing 14% by the 2030s ( [[#Hubau--2020|Hubau et al., 2020]] ; [[#Sullivan--2020|Sullivan et al., 2020]] ). This declining carbon storage may be offset by CO 2 fertilization ( ''low confidence'' ) ( [[#Martens--2021|Martens et al., 2021]] ). Climate change is projected to shift the geographic distribution of important human and livestock disease vectors (see Sections 9.8.2.4; 9.10.2). Changes in rainfall seasonality compounded with land privatisation and population growth may adversely impact nomadic and semi-nomadic pastoralists who follow shifting patterns of greening vegetation ( [[#Van%20Der%20Ree--2015|Van Der Ree et al., 2015]] ).

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