Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-4 (section)

==== 4.2.2.3 Projected Emissions Under NDCs and Current Policies by 2025/2030 ====

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The emissions projections presented in this section relate to the first NDCs, as communicated in 2015 and 2016, and on which an extensive literature exists. New and updated NDCs, mostly submitted since the beginning of 2020, are dealt with in Section 4.2.2.5. Similarly, the implications of COVID-19 and the related government responses on emissions projections is specifically dealt with in Section 4.2.2.4.

Table 4.1 presents the evidence base for the assessment of projected emissions of original NDCs and current policies until 2030. It covers 31 countries and regions responsible for about 82% of global GHG emission (excluding FOLU CO 2 emissions) and draws quantitative estimates from more than 40 studies (Table 4.SM.1 in the Supplementary Material to this chapter). The table allows comparing emission projections from national and globally comprehensive studies as well as official communications by countries to the UNFCCC at the national/regional level. The global aggregates presented in Table 4.1 derive from globally comprehensive studies only and are not the result of aggregating country projections up to the global level. As different studies report different emission indicators, the table includes four different indicators: CO 2 and GHG emissions, including or excluding AFOLU emissions. Where possible, multiple indicators are included per study.

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===== Globally comprehensive studies =====

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The UNFCCC Secretariat has assessed the aggregate effect of NDCs multiple times. The first report considered the intended NDCs in relation to 2°C ( [[#UNFCCC--2015b|UNFCCC 2015b]] ), whereas the second considered NDCs also in relation to 1.5°C ( [[#UNFCCC--2016b|UNFCCC 2016b]] ). New submissions and updates of NDCs in 2020/21 are assessed in Section 4.2.2.5. A number of globally comprehensive studies ( [[#den%20Elzen--2016|den Elzen et al. 2016]] ; [[#Luderer--2016|Luderer et al. 2016]] ; [[#Rogelj--2016|Rogelj et al. 2016]] , 2017; [[#Vandyck--2016|Vandyck et al. 2016]] ; [[#Rose--2017|Rose et al. 2017]] ; Baumstark et al. 2021) which estimate aggregate emissions outcomes of NDCs and current policies have previously been assessed in Cross-Chapter-Box 11 of IPCC SR1.5.

According to the assessment in this report, studies projecting emissions of current policies based on pre-COVID assumptions lead to median global GHG emissions of 60 GtCO 2 -eq with a full range of 54–68 by 2030 and original unconditional and conditional NDCs submitted in 2015/16 to 57 (49–63) and 54 (50–60) GtCO 2 -eq, respectively ( ''robust evidence'' , ''medium agreement'' ) (Table 4.1). Globally comprehensive and national-level studies project emissions of current policies and NDCs to 2025 and 2030 and, in general, are in good agreement about projected emissions at the country level.

These estimates are close to the ones provided by the IPCC SR1.5, Cross-Chapter-Box 11, and the UNEP emissions gap report ( [[#UNEP--2020a|UNEP 2020a]] ). [[#footnote-003|3]]

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===== National studies =====

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A large body of literature on national and regional emissions projections, including official communications of as part of the NDC submissions and independent studies exist. A subset of this literature provides quantitative estimates for the 2030 timeframe. As highlighted in Section 4.2.1, the number of independent studies varies considerably across countries with an emphasis on the largest emitting countries. This is reflected in Table 4.1 (see also Table 4.SM.1). Despite smaller differences between globally comprehensive and national studies for a few countries, there is generally good agreement between the different types of studies, providing evidence that these quantitative estimates are fairly robust.

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===== Sectoral studies =====

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Sectoral studies are essential to understand the contributions of concrete measures of NDCs and current policies. For example, approximately 98% of NDCs include the energy sector in their mitigation contributions, of which nearly 50% include a specific target for the share of renewables, and about 5% aim at increasing nuclear energy production ( [[#Stephan--2016|Stephan et al. 2016]] ). Transport is covered explicitly in 75% of NDCs, although specific targets for the sector exist in only 21% of NDCs ( [[#PPMC%20and%20SLoCaT--2016|PPMC and SLoCaT 2016]] ). Measures or targets for buildings are referred to explicitly in 27% of NDCs ( [[#GIZ--2017|GIZ 2017]] ). Additionally, 36% of NDCs include targets or actions that are specific to the agriculture sector ( [[#FAO--2016|FAO 2016]] ). LULUCF (mitigation) is included in 80% of all submitted NDCs, while 59% include adaptation and 29% refer to REDD+.

Greater sectoral expertise and involvement will be critical to accomplishing development and climate goals due to enhanced availability of information and expertise on specific sectoral options, greater ease of aligning the NDCs with sectoral strategies, and greater awareness among sector-level decision-makers and stakeholders ( [[#Fekete--2015|Fekete et al. 2015]] ; [[#NDC%20Partnership--2017|NDC Partnership 2017]] ). Sector-specific studies are assessed in the sectoral Chapters (6 to 11) of this report.

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