Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-12 (section)

==== 12.5.7.1 Challenges and Opportunities ====

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Climate change exacerbates pre-existing vulnerability conditions and can drive societies further away from achieving resilience, equity and sustainable development ( [[#Tanner--2015b|Tanner et al., 2015b]] ; [[#Bartlett--2016|Bartlett and Satterthwaite, 2016]] ; [[#Kalikoski--2018|Kalikoski et al., 2018]] ; [[#Bárcena--2020a|Bárcena et al., 2020a]] ). Existing inequalities in the provision and consumption of services are bound to be exacerbated by future risks and uncertainties associated with climate-change scenarios ( [[#Miranda%20Sara--2017|Miranda Sara et al., 2017]] ). Climate change will be a major obstacle in reducing poverty ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Bartlett--2016|Bartlett and Satterthwaite, 2016]] ; [[#Allen--2017a|Allen et al., 2017a]] ; [[#Hallegatte--2018|Hallegatte et al., 2018]] ; [[#UN-Habitat--2018|UN-Habitat, 2018]] ; [[#United%20Nations%20Environment%20Programme--2021|United Nations Environment Programme, 2021]] ), affecting even wealthier populations that become vulnerable facing climate-change scenarios (WGI AR6 Chapter 12, [[#Ranasinghe--2021|Ranasinghe et al., 2021]] ), dragging them into poverty and erasing decades of work and asset accumulation.

CSA is highly urbanised, and the vast majority of the region’s poor live in urban areas (except in CA), while urban extreme poverty is becoming more pronounced ( [[#Rosenzweig--2018|Rosenzweig et al., 2018]] ; [[#Dodman--2019|Dodman et al., 2019]] ; [[#Almansi--2020|Almansi et al., 2020]] ; [[#Sette%20Whitaker%20Ferreira--2020|Sette Whitaker Ferreira et al., 2020]] ), with those living in informal settlements and working within informal economy being critical factors in each city’s economy ( [[#Satterthwaite--2018|Satterthwaite et al., 2018]] , 2020). Many households in the region’s cities live in precarious neighbourhoods with insufficient infrastructure and substandard housing ( [[#Adler--2018|Adler et al., 2018]] ; [[#Rojas--2019|Rojas, 2019]] ). On average, between 21% and 25% of urban populations live in informal settlements ( [[#Jaitman--2015|Jaitman, 2015]] ; [[#UN-Habitat--2015|UN-Habitat, 2015]] ; [[#Rojas--2019|Rojas, 2019]] ; [[#Sandoval--2019|Sandoval and Sarmiento, 2019]] ). This hides important disparities: Habitat III reports, by individual countries, the percentage of urban population living in informal settlements, which ranged from 5% to 60% and in absolute terms means 105 million people living in precarious conditions (106 million estimated in 1990) ( [[#12.5.5|Section 12.5.5]] ; [[#Sandoval--2019|Sandoval and Sarmiento, 2019]] ).

High levels of inequality and informality remain the biggest challenges in terms of adaptation measures being effective ( [[#Rosenzweig--2018|Rosenzweig et al., 2018]] ; [[#Dodman--2019|Dodman et al., 2019]] ). The interaction of projected impacts with existing vulnerabilities in the region (such as hunger, malnutrition and health inequalities, arising from the region’s social, economic and demographic profile) affects CSA development and well-being in different ways ( [[#Reyer--2017|Reyer et al., 2017]] ) increasing poverty and inequality and threatening paths to sustainable development ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-18#18.1.1|Section 18.1.1]] ; [[#Reckien--2017|Reckien et al., 2017]] ).

The uneven enforcement of land use regulations, relocations and evictions in connection with environmental risk management and climate adaptation is a contested issue ( [[#Brockington--2015|Brockington and Wilkie, 2015]] ; [[#Lavell--2016|Lavell, 2016]] ; [[#Quimbayo%20Ruiz--2016a|Quimbayo Ruiz and Vásquez Rodríguez, 2016a]] ; [[#Quimbayo%20Ruiz--2016b|Quimbayo Ruiz and Vásquez Rodríguez, 2016b]] ; [[#Anguelovski--2018|Anguelovski et al., 2018]] ; Anguelovski et al., 2019; [[#Shokry--2020|Shokry et al., 2020]] ; [[#Chávez%20Eslava--2021|Chávez Eslava, 2021]] ; [[#Oliver-Smith--2021|Oliver-Smith, 2021]] ). This suggests that caution in framing climate adaptation and resilience related interventions equally benefits everyone ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Brown--2014|Brown, 2014]] ; [[#Chu--2016|Chu et al., 2016]] ; [[#Connolly--2019|Connolly, 2019]] ; [[#Romero-Lankao--2019|Romero-Lankao and Gnatz, 2019]] ; [[#Johnson--2021|Johnson et al., 2021]] ) and that equality and justice dimensions should be incorporated into decision-making ( ''very high confidence'' ) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-18#18.1.2|Section 18.1.2.2]] ; [[#Agyeman--2016|Agyeman et al., 2016]] ; [[#Meerow--2016|Meerow and Newell, 2016]] ; [[#Romero-Lankao--2016|Romero-Lankao et al., 2016]] ; [[#Shi--2016|Shi et al., 2016]] ; [[#Reckien--2017|Reckien et al., 2017]] ; [[#Leal%20Filho--2021|Leal Filho et al., 2021]] ).

Poor rural households in marginal territories that have a low productive potential and/or that are far from markets and infrastructure are highly vulnerable to climate-change impacts and could easily fall into poverty-environment traps ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Barbier--2019|Barbier and Hochard, 2019]] ; [[#Heikkinen--2021|Heikkinen, 2021]] ). Climate change is one of the main threats to rural livelihoods in CA, since agriculture is a pillar of rural economies and food security, especially in the poorest sectors, which rely on subsistence crops in areas with low soil fertility and rainfall seasonality ( [[#Bouroncle--2017|Bouroncle et al., 2017]] ).

Impacts are likely to occur simultaneously, exacerbating the challenges faced by the poorer segments of society, but also creating new groups at risk ( [[#Miranda%20Sara--2016|Miranda Sara et al., 2016]] ; [[#Rosenzweig--2018|Rosenzweig et al., 2018]] ; [[#Dodman--2019|Dodman et al., 2019]] ). The material basis for poor and vulnerable urban and rural populations’ adaptations is in a critical state across the CSA region, magnifying extreme events’ impacts, making CSA less resilient. Consequences in terms of social vulnerability and livelihood will be widely felt, inasmuch as the security and protection of critical assets (housing, infrastructure and water, land and ecosystem services) continue to lag behind. Small businesses are usually located within homes, and if the home is affected, so is the business ( [[#Stein--2015|Stein and Moser, 2015]] ), adding another layer of vulnerability for this population.

As productivity declines, outside sources of income are sought, and people rely on resource extraction for subsistence and for income, further increasing their vulnerability to climate change ( [[#Barbier--2018a|Barbier and Hochard, 2018a]] ). Cycles of declining productivity, environmental degradation, wildlife poaching and trafficking, the search for outside employment, reduced incomes, livelihood opportunities and poverty have been observed in rural El Salvador, Honduras, Amazonia ( [[#López-Feldman--2014|López-Feldman, 2014]] ; [[#Graham--2017|Graham, 2017]] ; [[#Barbier--2018a|Barbier and Hochard, 2018a]] ). The protection of communities that defend and are dependent on wildlife and natural environments requires immediate attention. Latin America is home to eight million forest-dependent people, which represents about 82% of the region’s rural extreme poor ( [[#FAO%20and%20UNEP--2020|FAO and UNEP, 2020]] ).

Poverty and disaster risk reduction interlinked with climate-change adaptation share a focus on identifying and acting on local risks and their root causes, even though they view risk through different lenses ( ''very high confidence'' ) ( [[#IPCC--2014|IPCC, 2014]] ; [[#Allen--2017a|Allen et al., 2017a]] ; [[#Satterthwaite--2018|Satterthwaite et al., 2018]] , 2020; [[#UN-Habitat--2018|UN-Habitat, 2018]] ). Construction of climate knowledge and risk perceptions affect decision-making to define implementation priorities, but the poor are less able to cope with and adapt so as to avoid so-called adaptation injustices ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Mansur--2016|Mansur et al., 2016]] ; [[#Miranda%20Sara--2017|Miranda Sara et al., 2017]] ; [[#Reckien--2017|Reckien et al., 2017]] ; [[#Hardoy--2019|Hardoy et al., 2019]] ).

Adaptation, social policies, poverty reduction and inequality are weakly articulated to daily or chronic risk reduction. Poor residents are often caught in ‘risk traps’, accumulated cycles of everyday risks and small-scale disasters ( ''medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement'' ) ( [[#Bartlett--2016|Bartlett and Satterthwaite, 2016]] ; [[#Mansur--2016|Mansur et al., 2016]] ; [[#Allen--2017a|Allen et al., 2017a]] ; [[#Leal%20Filho--2021|Leal Filho et al., 2021]] ), which are exacerbated by climate risks and COVID pandemic with the most vulnerable populations suffering. Chronic and everyday risks (poor access to infrastructure, services, incomes, housing, land tenure, education, security, location and poor-quality environment and networks and lack of a voice) are often exacerbated and generate new unknown risks by climate change ( ''medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement'' ) ( [[#Bartlett--2016|Bartlett and Satterthwaite, 2016]] ; [[#Mansur--2016|Mansur et al., 2016]] ; [[#Satterthwaite--2018|Satterthwaite et al., 2018]] ; [[#Leal%20Filho--2021|Leal Filho et al., 2021]] ), extreme events and risks related to ENSO oscillation. All these risks need to be considered simultaneously ( [[#UN-Habitat--2018|UN-Habitat, 2018]] ). Risks are seldom distributed equally, highlighting socioeconomic inequalities and governance failures ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#IPCC--2014|IPCC, 2014]] ; [[#Bartlett--2016|Bartlett and Satterthwaite, 2016]] ; [[#Rasch--2016|Rasch, 2016]] ; [[#Romero-Lankao--2018|Romero-Lankao et al., 2018]] ).

Adaptation, disaster risk reduction and social and poverty reduction policies contribute to sustainable development ( [[#Hallegatte--2018|Hallegatte et al., 2018]] ; [[#Satterthwaite--2020|Satterthwaite et al., 2020]] ) and improve prospects for climate-resilient pathways ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-18#18.1.1|Section 18.1.1]] ). Without pro-poor interventions, adaptation options could reinforce poverty cycles ( [[#Kalikoski--2018|Kalikoski et al., 2018]] ). Secure locations, good-quality infrastructure, services and housing are critical to reducing risks from extreme climate events ( [[#Satterthwaite--2018|Satterthwaite et al., 2018]] ; [[#Dodman--2019|Dodman et al., 2019]] ).

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