Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-5 (section)

===== 5.9.3.2.3 Aquatic plant culture =====

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There is ''medium confidence'' that cultivated seaweeds are predicted to suffer habitat loss resulting in population declines and northward shifts (Table 5.11).

'''Table 5.11 |''' Projected impacts of climate on specific inland, brackish and marine culture systems and species.

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! '''Exposure'''

! '''Scenario'''

! '''Region'''

! '''Production system'''

! '''Species'''

! '''Impact'''

! '''Reference'''

|-
| Temperature increase

| RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 by 2050

| Northern Thailand

| Inland

| Nile tilapia

| Reduced productivity

| [[#Lebel--2018|Lebel et al. (2018)]]

|-
| Precipitation change (drought, hurricane, heavy rainfall)

| –

| Jamaica

| Inland

| Tilapia

| Reduced productivity, infrastructure damage

| Canevari-Luzardo et al. (2019)

|-
| Temperature increase

| 4°C increase, B2, A1B by 2100

| Australia

| Inland

| Freshwater shrimp

| Increased production in non-native zones

| [[#Cerato--2019|Cerato et al. (2019)]]

|-
| Temperature increase, ocean acidification, primary productivity declines

| CMIP5 RCP8.5 in 20-year increments to 2090

| Global

| Marine

| Finfish species

| Increased suitable habitat expansion for regions (Russia, Norway, USA Alaska, Denmark, Canada). By 2100, reduction in productivity for major producers (Norway, China)

| Froehlich et al. (2018a),

[[#Thiault--2019|Thiault et al. (2019)]]

|-
| Temperature increase

| 2–5°C increase under RCP8.5

| Europe

| Marine

| Atlantic salmon

| Increased growth

| [[#Catalán--2019|Catalán et al. (2019)]]

|-
| Temperature increase

| RCP4.5 to 2029

| Norway

| Marine

| Atlantic salmon

| Growth threshold reached by 2029

| [[#Falconer--2020a|Falconer et al. (2020a)]]

|-
| Temperature increase

| Downscaled CM2.6 by 2050

| Global

| Marine

| Atlantic salmon, cobia and sea bream

| Increased or decreased growth rates depending on region

| Klinger et al. (2017)

|-
| Temperature increase, ocean acidification, primary productivity declines

| CMIP5 RCP8.5 in 20-year increments to 2090

| Global

| Marine

| Shellfish

| Overall declines in suitable habitat globally, up to 50–100% reductions in regions in China, Thailand and Canada

| Froehlich et al. (2018a)

|-
| Temperature increase

| CMIP5 RCP8.5 by 2050, 2100

| Italy

| Marine

| Clams

| Negative impacts for juvenile timing, spatial distribution, and quality

| [[#Ghezzo--2018|Ghezzo et al. (2018)]]

|-
| Temperature increase

| CMIP5 RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 by 2035, 2070

| France

| Marine

| Oysters

| Increase incidence of oyster mortality; increase by 2035 to annual occurrence by 2070

| [[#Thomas--2018|Thomas et al. (2018)]]

|-
| Temperature increase

| RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 by 2050

| Global

| Marine

| Shellfish

| Species reduction (10–40%) in tropical and subtropical regions, with increase (40%) in higher latitudes

| [[#Oyinlola--2020|Oyinlola et al. (2020)]]

|-
| Temperature increase, ocean acidification

| Ecopath with RCP8.5 by 2100 (2.8°C warming and pH 7.89)

| USA

| Marine

| Shellfish

| Reduction primary productivity and subsequent bivalve carrying capacity

| [[#Chapman--2020|Chapman et al. (2020)]]

|-
| Temperature increase, stratification change

| RCP8.5 by 2088–2099

| Spain

| Marine

| Mussels

| Decline in mussel optimal culture conditions of 60% in upper and 30% in deeper waters by 2099

| [[#Des--2020|Des et al. (2020)]]

|-
| Temperature increase, ocean acidification

| RCP2.6 and 8.5 by 2070–2090

| Global

| Marine

| Shellfish

| Under RCP8.5, a decline in shellfish production due to primary productivity reduction in tropical regions and gains in high latitudes. Under RCP2.6, marine production will have net gain

| [[#Thiault--2019|Thiault et al. (2019)]]

|-
| Temperature increase

| 4°C increase

| Global

| Marine

| ''Vibrio'' spp. (mortality causative agent)

| Increased virulence

| [[#Montanchez--2019|Montanchez et al. (2019)]]

|-
| Temperature increase (marine heatwave)

| 5°C increase

| Global

| Marine

| Oysters

| Increased oyster mortality

| [[#Green--2019|Green et al. (2019)]]

|-
| Ocean acidification

| ~2000 ppm CO 2

| Global

| Marine

| Oysters

| Impaired immune function

| [[#Cao--2018b|Cao et al. (2018b)]]

|-
| Ocean acidification

| RCP8.5 in 20-year increments to after 2099

| USA

| Marine

| Shellfish

| Regional projected vulnerabilities; southern Alaska and Pacific Northwest at more immediate risk

| [[#Ekstrom--2015|Ekstrom et al. (2015)]]

|-
| Ocean acidification

| A1B and RCP8.5 by 2100

| UK

| Marine

| Shellfish

| Regional projected vulnerabilities; Wales and England at more immediate risk

| [[#Mangi--2018|Mangi et al. (2018)]]

|-
| Ocean acidification

| RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 by 2300

| East China

| Marine

| Shellfish

| Carbonate saturation projected to decrease by 13% and 72% under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively, projecting decreased shellfish productivity

| RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 by 2300 ( [[#Zhang--2017b|Zhang et al., 2017b]] )

|-
| Increased temperature

| RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 by 2100

| North Sea

| Marine

| Seaweed

| Northward population shift by 110–163 km and 450–635 km under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively

| [[#Westmeijer--2019|Westmeijer et al. (2019)]]

|-
| Increased temperature

| RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 by 2090

| Japan

| Marine

| Kelp

| Habitat decline to 30–51% and 0–25% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively

| [[#Sudo--2020|Sudo et al. (2020)]]

|}

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