Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

==== 9.6.2.6 Invasive Species ====

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Invasive species threaten African ecosystems and livelihoods ( [[#Ranasinghe--2021|Ranasinghe et al., 2021]] ). For instance, economic impacts were estimated at USD 1 billion per year for smallholder maize farmers in east Africa ( [[#Pratt--2017|Pratt et al., 2017]] ). Climate change is projected to change patterns of invasive species spread ( ''high confidence'' ). The area of suitable climate for ''Lantana camara'' is projected to contract ( [[#Taylor--2012|Taylor et al., 2012]] ) and to expand for ''Prosopis juliflora'' ( [[#Sintayehu--2020|Sintayehu et al., 2020]] ). Bioclimatic suitability for fall armyworm, a major threat to maize, is projected to decrease in central Africa but expand in southern and west Africa ( [[#Zacarias--2020|Zacarias, 2020]] ), and to expand for coffee berry borer ( ''Hypothenemus hampei'' ) in Uganda and around Mount Kenya ( [[#Jaramillo--2011|Jaramillo et al., 2011]] ). Climate suitability for tephritid fruit flies is projected to decrease in central Africa ( [[#Hill--2016|Hill et al., 2016]] ). Increased water temperature is projected to favour invasive over local freshwater fish populations and shift the range of invasive aquatic plants in South Africa ( [[#Hoveka--2016|Hoveka et al., 2016]] ; [[#Shelton--2018|Shelton et al., 2018]] ). Alterations to lake and river connectivity are predicted to modify invasion pathways in Lake Tanganyika and water hyacinth coverage may increase with warmer waters in Lake Victoria ( [[#Masters--2010|Masters and Norgrove, 2010]] ; [[#Plisnier--2018|Plisnier et al., 2018]] ).

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