Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-5 (section)

===== 5.9.3.2.4 Societal impacts within the production system =====

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Marine aquaculture provides distinct ecosystem services through provisioning (augmenting wild fishery catches), regulating (coastal protection, carbon sequestration, nutrient removal, improved water clarity), habitat and supporting (artificial habitat) and cultural (livelihoods and tourism) services ( [[#Gentry--2020|Gentry et al., 2020]] ), which vary with species, location and husbandry ( [[#Alleway--2019|Alleway et al., 2019]] ). Projected thermal increases of 1.5°C will reduce ecosystem services, further reduced under 2°C warming, with associated increases in acidification, hypoxia, dead zones, flooding and water restrictions ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Hoegh-Guldberg--2018|Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018]] ). Sudden production losses from extreme climate events can exacerbate food security challenges across production sectors, including aquaculture, increasing global hunger ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Cottrell--2019|Cottrell et al., 2019]] ; [[#Food%20Security%20Information%20Network--2020|Food Security Information Network, 2020]] ). While aquaculture provides positive influences such as food security and livelihoods, there are negative concerns over environmental impacts (including high nutrient loads from sites) and socioeconomic conflicts ( [[#Alleway--2019|Alleway et al., 2019]] ; [[#Soto--2019|Soto et al., 2019]] ), and adoption of ecosystem approaches is dependent on particular user groups and regions ( [[#Gentry--2017|Gentry et al., 2017]] ; [[#Brugère--2019|Brugère et al., 2019]] ; [[#Gentry--2020|Gentry et al., 2020]] ). In coastal Bangladesh, projected saline inundation to wetland ecosystem services will result in ecosystem services losses of raw materials and food provisioning, ranging from USD 0 to 20.0 million under RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 scenarios ( [[#Mehvar--2019|Mehvar et al., 2019]] ). Mangrove deforestation for shrimp farming in Asia negatively impacts ecosystem services and reduces climate resilience ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Mehvar--2019|Mehvar et al., 2019]] ; [[#Nguyen--2019|Nguyen and Parnell, 2019]] ; [[#Reid--2019|Reid et al., 2019]] ; [[#Custódio--2020|Custódio et al., 2020]] ), while mangrove reforestation efforts may have some effectiveness in re-creating important nursery grounds for aquatic species ( ''low confidence)'' ( [[#Gentry--2017|Gentry et al., 2017]] ; [[#Chiayarak--2019|Chiayarak et al., 2019]] ; [[#Hai--2020|Hai et al., 2020]] ). Families are highly vulnerable to climate change where nutritional needs are being met by self-production, such as in Mozambique, Namibia ( [[#Villasante--2015|Villasante et al., 2015]] ), Zambia ( [[#Kaminski--2018|Kaminski et al., 2018]] ) and Bangladesh ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Pant--2014|Pant et al., 2014]] ). Climate change will therefore affect multiple ecosystem services where ultimately decisions on balance or trade-offs will vary with regional perceptions of service value ( ''high confidence'' ).

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