Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

=== 9.6.3 Nature-based Tourism in Africa ===

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Nature-based tourism is important for African economies and jobs. Tourism contributed 8.5% of Africa’s 2018 gross domestic product (GDP) (World Travel and Tourism Council, 2019a) with wildlife tourism contributing a third of tourism revenue (USD 70.6 billion), supporting 8.8 million jobs ( [[#World%20Travel%20and%20Tourism%20Council--2019b|World Travel and Tourism Council, 2019b]] ).

Climate change is already negatively affecting tourism in Africa ( ''high confidence'' ). The 2015–2018 Cape Town drought caused severe water restrictions, reducing tourist arrivals and spending with associated job losses ( [[#Dube--2020|Dube et al., 2020]] ). Human-caused climate change increased the likelihood of the reduced rainfall that caused the drought by a factor of three ( [[#Otto--2018|Otto et al., 2018]] )( [[#Pascale--2020|Pascale et al., 2020]] ). Extreme heat days have increased across South African national parks since the 1990s ( [[#van%20Wilgen--2016|van Wilgen et al., 2016]] ). This reduces animal mobility, decreasing animal viewing opportunities ( [[#Dube--2020|Dube and Nhamo, 2020]] ). Tourists and employees also fear heat stress ( [[#Dube--2020|Dube and Nhamo, 2020]] ). Visitors to South Africa’s national parks preferred to visit in cool-to-mild temperatures ( [[#Coldrey--2020|Coldrey and Turpie, 2020]] ). Extreme weather conditions disrupted tourist activities and damaged infrastructure at Victoria Falls, Hwange National Park, Kruger National Park and the Okavango Delta ( [[#Dube--2018|Dube et al., 2018]] ; [[#Dube--2018|Dube and Nhamo, 2018]] ; [[#Mushawemhuka--2018|Mushawemhuka et al., 2018]] ; [[#Dube--2020|Dube and Nhamo, 2020]] ). Rainfall variability and drought alter wildlife migrations, affecting tourist visits to the Serengeti ( [[#Kilungu--2017|Kilungu et al., 2017]] ). Reduced tourism decreases revenue for national park management ( [[#van%20Wilgen--2016|van Wilgen et al., 2016]] ).

Future climate change is projected to further negatively affect nature-based tourism. Decreased snow and forest cover may reduce visits to Kilimanjaro National Park ( [[#Kilungu--2019|Kilungu et al., 2019]] ). Woody plant expansion in savanna and grasslands reduce tourist’s game viewing experience and negatively impact conservation revenues ( [[#Gray%20Emma--2013|Gray Emma and Bond William, 2013]] ; [[#Arbieu--2017|Arbieu et al., 2017]] ). Visitation rates to South African national parks, based on mean monthly temperatures, are projected to decline 4% with 2°C global warming ( [[#Coldrey--2020|Coldrey and Turpie, 2020]] ). Sea level rise and increased intensity of storms is projected to reduce beach tourism due to beach erosion ( [[#Grant--2015|Grant, 2015]] ; [[#Amusan--2017|Amusan and Olutola, 2017]] ). Tourism in the Victoria Falls, Okavango and Chobe hydrological systems may be negatively affected by heat and increased variability of rainfall and river flow ( [[#Saarinen--2012|Saarinen et al., 2012]] ; [[#Dube--2019|Dube and Nhamo, 2019]] ). Increased extreme heat will increase air turbulence and weight restrictions on aircraft, which could make air travel more uncomfortable and expensive to African destinations ( [[#Coffel--2015|Coffel and Horton, 2015]] ; [[#Dube--2019|Dube and Nhamo, 2019]] ).

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==== 9.6.3.1 Protected Areas and Climate Change ====

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African protected areas store around 1.5% of global land ecosystem carbon stocks and support biodiversity ( [[#Gray--2016|Gray et al., 2016]] ; [[#Melillo--2016|Melillo et al., 2016]] ; [[#Sala--2018|Sala et al., 2018]] ). They also support livelihoods and economies, such as through nature-based tourism and improved fisheries ( [[#Brockington--2015|Brockington and Wilkie, 2015]] ; [[#Mavah--2018|Mavah et al., 2018]] ; [[#Ban--2019|Ban et al., 2019]] ).

Climate change and land use change will interact to influence the effectiveness of African protected areas ( ''high confidence'' ). Species representation in the existing African protected area network is projected to decrease due to species range shifts for mammals, bats, birds and amphibians ( [[#Hole--2009|Hole et al., 2009]] ; [[#Baker--2015|Baker et al., 2015]] ; [[#Payne--2016|Payne and Bro-Jørgensen, 2016]] ; [[#Smith--2016|Smith et al., 2016]] ; [[#Phipps--2017|Phipps et al., 2017]] ). Species ability to disperse between areas to track shifting climates is increasingly impaired by land transformation and fencing, which also impact seasonal wildlife migrations ( [[#Lovschal--2017|Lovschal et al., 2017]] ; [[#Sloan--2017|Sloan et al., 2017]] ). On land, only 0.5% of the African protected area network is connected through low-impact landscapes ( [[#Ward--2020|Ward et al., 2020]] ). Linear transport infrastructure (e.g., roads, railways, pipelines) and fencing from proposed ‘development corridors’ are projected to bisect over 400 protected areas and degrade around 1800 more ( [[#Laurance--2015|Laurance et al., 2015]] ). Climate change could increase human–wildlife conflict as resultant resource shortages cause communities to move into protected areas for harvesting or livestock grazing, or wildlife to move out of protected areas and into contact with people ( [[#Mukeka--2018|Mukeka et al., 2018]] ; [[#Kupika--2019|Kupika et al., 2019]] ; [[#Hambira--2020|Hambira et al., 2020]] ). See [[#9.6.4|Section 9.6.4]] for the role of land and ocean protected areas in climate change adaptation.

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