Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-4 (section)

== 4.5 Equity, Including Just Transitions ==

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Equity is an ethical and at times economic imperative, but it is also instrumentally an enabler of deeper ambition for accelerated mitigation ( [[#Hoegh-Guldberg--2019|Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2019]] ). The literature supports a range of estimates of the net benefits – globally or nationally – of low-carbon transformation, and it identifies a number of difficulties in drawing definitive quantitative conclusions (e.g., comparisons of costs and benefits among different actors, the existence of non-economic impacts, comparison across time, uncertainty in magnitude) ( [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-3#3.6|Section 3.6]] ). One of the most important of these dimensions is the distributional consequences of mitigation, as well as a range of equity considerations arising from the uncertainty in net benefits, as well as from the distribution of costs and benefits among winners and losers ( [[#Rendall--2019|Rendall 2019]] ; [[#Caney--2016|Caney 2016]] ; [[#Lahn--2016|Lahn and Bradley 2016]] ; [[#Lenferna--2018a|Lenferna 2018a]] ; [[#Kartha--2018b|Kartha et al. 2018b]] ; [[#Robiou%20Du%20Pont--2017|Robiou Du Pont et al. 2017]] ). Some equity approaches are even just seeking corrective justice including for historical emissions (Adler 2007). For an assessment of literature on fairness in NDCs, see Section 4.2.2.7.

Equity issues are often discussed in the literature via frameworks that are well-founded in the ethical literature and that have a strong bearing on effort-sharing, but have not yet been quantitatively modelled and expressed in the form of an emissions allocation quantified framework. These include, for example, ethical perspectives based in human rights ( [[#Johl--2012|Johl and Duyck 2012]] ), human capabilities ( [[#Klinsky--2017b|Klinsky et al. 2017b]] ), environmental justice ( [[#Mohai--2009|Mohai et al. 2009]] ; [[#Schlosberg--2009|Schlosberg 2009]] ), ecological debt ( [[#Srinivasana--2008|Srinivasana et al. 2008]] ; [[#Warlenius--2015|Warlenius et al. 2015]] ), transitional justice ( [[#Klinsky--2017|Klinsky 2017]] ; [[#Klinsky--2018|Klinsky and Brankovic 2018]] ), and planetary boundaries ( [[#Häyhä--2016|Häyhä et al. 2016]] ).

While there is extensive literature on equity frameworks for national emissions allocations (CSO Equity Review 2015, 2017, 2018; [[#Holz--2018|Holz et al. 2018]] ; [[#Kemp-Benedict--2018|Kemp-Benedict et al. 2018]] ; [[#Robiou%20du%20Pont--2018|Robiou du Pont and Meinshausen 2018]] ; [[#Fyson--2020|Fyson et al. 2020]] ; [[#Pozo--2020|Pozo et al. 2020]] ; [[#Pye--2020|Pye et al. 2020]] ), such studies have tended to focus on allocation of a global carbon budget among countries based on quantified equity frameworks. The implicit normative choices made in these analysis have limitations ( [[#Kartha--2018a|Kartha et al. 2018a]] ). Moreover, there are many ethical parameters that could be introduced to enrich the existing quantitative frameworks, such as progressivity ( [[#Holz--2018|Holz et al. 2018]] ), consumption-based accounting (Afionis et al. 2017), prioritarianism ( [[#Adler,%C2%A0M.D.%20and%C2%A0N.%20Treich--2015|]] [[#Adler,%C2%A0M.D.%20and%C2%A0N.%20Treich--2015|Adler and Treich 2015]] ), and a right to development ( [[#Moellendorf--2020|Moellendorf 2020]] ). Introducing these ethical frames into conventional quantification approaches generally implies greater allocations for poorer and lower-emitting populations, suggesting that the approaches that are typically highlighted in emissions allocation analyses tends to favour wealthier and higher-emitting countries. Broader, more inclusive sharing of costs and burdens is seen as a way to enhance equity in procedures and outcomes.

Ultimately, equity consequences depend on how costs and benefits are initially incurred and how they are shared as per social contracts ( [[#Combet--2017|Combet and Hourcade 2017]] ), national policy, and international agreements. The literature suggests a relationship between the effectiveness of cooperative action and the perception of fairness of such arrangements. [[#Winkler--2018|Winkler et al. (2018)]] demonstrate that countries have put forward a wide variety of indicators and approaches for explaining the fairness and ambition of their NDCs, reflecting the broader range of perspectives found in the moral philosophical literature cited above. [[#Mbeva--2016|Mbeva and Pauw (2016)]] further find that adaptation and financing issues take on greater salience in the national perspectives reflected in the NDCs.

Topics of equity and fairness have begun to receive a greater amount of attention within the energy and climate literature, namely through the approaches of gender and race ( [[#Pearson--2017|Pearson et al. 2017]] ; [[#Lennon--2017|Lennon 2017]] ; Allen et al. 2019), climate justice ( [[#Roberts--2007|Roberts and Parks 2007]] ; [[#Routledge--2018|Routledge et al. 2018]] ) (Roberts &amp; Parks, 2006; [[#Routledge--2018|Routledge et al. 2018]] ), and energy justice ( [[#Sovacool--2014|Sovacool and Dworkin 2014]] ). While such approaches frequently envision justice and equity as an ethical imperative, justice also possesses the instrumental value of enabling deeper and more socially acceptable mitigation efforts ( [[#Klinsky--2018|Klinsky and]] [[#Winkler--2018|Winkler 2018]] ).

A concrete focal point on these issues has been that of ‘just transition’. Getting broad consensus for the transformational changes entailed in moving from a high- to a low-carbon economy means ‘leaving no one behind’, in other words, ensuring (sufficiently) equitable transition for the relevant affected individuals, workers, communities, sectors, regions and countries ( [[#Newell--2013|Newell and Mulvaney, 2013]] ; [[#Jasanoff--2018|Jasanoff 2018]] ). The concept of a ‘just transition’ owes its origin to the USA trade union movement of the 1980s. The earliest version of a just transition was called the ‘Superfund for Workers’ modelled on the 1980 Superfund program that designed federal funds for the clean-up of toxic substances from chemicals, mining and energy production ( [[#Stevis--2015|Stevis and Felli 2015]] ). It was further taken up, for example in the collaboration of the International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC), the International Labour Organization (ILO) and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) in promoting ‘green jobs’ as integral elements of a just transition ( [[#ILO--2015|ILO 2015]] ; [[#Rosemberg--2010|Rosemberg 2010]] ). In recent years the concept of a ‘just transition’ has gained increased traction, for example incorporated in the outcome of the Rio+20 Earth Summit and more recently recognised in the preamble of the Paris Agreement, which states ‘the imperative of a just transition of the workforce and the creation of decent work and quality jobs in accordance with nationally defined development priorities’ ( [[#UNFCCC--2015a|UNFCCC 2015a]] ). Some heads of state and government signed a Solidarity and Just Transition Silesia Declaration first introduced at COP24 in Poland ( [[#HoSG--2018|HoSG 2018]] ).

The literature identifies targeted and proactive measures from governments, agencies, and authorities to ensure that any negative social, environmental or economic impacts of economy-wide transitions are minimised, while benefits are maximised for those disproportionally affected ( [[#Healy--2017|Healy and Barry 2017]] ). While the precise definition varies by source, core elements tend to include: (i) investments in establishing low-emission and labour-intensive technologies and sectors ( [[#Mijn%20Cha--2020|Mijn Cha et al. 2020]] ); (ii) research and early assessment of the social and employment impacts of climate policies ( [[#Green--2020|Green and Gambhir 2020]] ; [[#Mogomotsi--2018|Mogomotsi et al. 2018]] ); (iii) social dialogue and democratic consultation of social partners and stakeholders ( [[#Swilling--2012|Swilling and Annecke 2012]] ; [[#Smith--2017|Smith 2017]] ); (iv) the creation of decent jobs; active labour markets policies; and rights at work ( [[#ILO--2015|ILO 2015]] ; [[#UNFCCC--2016c|UNFCCC 2016c]] ); (v) fairness in energy access and use ( [[#Carley--2020|Carley and Konisky 2020]] ); (vi) economic diversification based on low-carbon investments; (vii) realistic training/retraining programs that lead to decent work; (viii) gender specific politics that promote equitable outcomes (Allwood 2020); (ix) the fostering of international cooperation and coordinated multilateral actions ( [[#Lenferna--2018b|Lenferna 2018b]] ; [[#Newell--2020|Newell and Simms 2020]] ); (x) redressing of past harms and perceived injustices ( [[#Setzer--2019|Setzer and Vanhala 2019]] ; [[#UNHRC--2020|UNHRC 2020]] ); and (xi) consideration of inter-generational justice concerns, such as the impacts of policy decisions on future generations ( [[#Newell--2013|Newell and Mulvaney, 2013]] ).

A just transition could therefore entail that the state intervenes more actively in the eradication of poverty, and creates jobs in lower-carbon sectors, in part to compensate for soon-to-be abandoned fossil-fuel-based sectors, and that governments, polluting industries, corporations and those more able to pay higher associated taxes pay for transition costs, provide a welfare safety net and adequate compensation for people, communities, places, and regions that have been impacted by pollution, marginalised or negatively impacted by a transition from a high- to low-carbon economy and society ( [[#Muttitt--2020|Muttitt and Kartha 2020]] ; [[#Le%20Billon--2020|Le Billon and Kristoffersen 2020]] ; [[#Kartha--2018b|Kartha et al. 2018b]] ). Reducing climate impacts is another important dimension of equity, in that the poor who are least responsible for climate change are most vulnerable to its impacts (AR6 WGII, Chapter 8). Focusing on financial losses alone however can obscure an important distinction between losses incurred by corporations and states and losses experienced by workers and communities. Processes established in the name of a just transition are also at risk of being co-opted by incumbent interests and powerful/wealthy agents ( [[#Green--2020|Green and Gambhir, 2020]] ). Policy interventions associated with good governance, democratic oversight, and legal recourse can help overcome attempted co-optation of just transition, or use of COVID-19 recovery packages for continued carbon lock-in ( [[#Hepburn--2020|Hepburn et al. 2020]] ; [[#SEI--2020|SEI et al. 2020]] ).

The just transition concept has thus become an international focal point tying together social movements, trade unions, and other key stakeholders to ensure equity is better accounted for in low-carbon transitions and to seek to protect workers and communities. It also forms a central pillar of the growing movement for a ‘Green New Deal’ – a roadmap for a broad spectrum of policies, programs, and legislation that aims to rapidly decarbonise the economy while significantly reducing economic inequality (Allam et al. 2021; [[#Galvin--2020|Galvin and Healy 2020]] ). The US Green New Deal Resolution ( [[#Ocasio-Cortez--2019|Ocasio-Cortez 2019]] ) for example, positions structural inequality, poverty mitigation, and a just transition at its centre. The European Green Deal proposed in 2019 ( [[#European%20Commission--2019|European Commission 2019]] ), including a €100 billion ‘Just Transition Mechanism’ to mitigate the social effects of transitioning away from jobs in fossil-based industries. National level green new deals with strong just transition components have been proposed in South Korea, Australia, Spain, UK, Puerto Rico, Canada, as well as regional proposals across Latin America and the Caribbean ( [[#Pollin--2020|Pollin 2020]] ).

A just transition at national, regional and local scales can help to ensure that workers, communities, frontline communities and the energy-poor are not left behind in the transition. Moreover, a just transition necessitates that rapid decarbonisation does not perpetuate asymmetries between richer and poorer states and people ( [[#UNHRC--2020|UNHRC 2020]] ). Alliances around a just transition in countries across the world take many forms (Box 4.6).

As shows, no fewer than seven national commissions or task forces on a just transition existed as of 2020 as well as seven other sets of national policies and a multitude of other actors, networks, and movements. For instance, the German phase-out of coal subsidies involved a savings package for unemployed miners. Subsidy reform packages introduced by Iran, Namibia, the Philippines, Turkey, and United Kingdom provide similar compensating measures to affected groups ( [[#Sovacool--2017|Sovacool 2017]] ). Spain’s just transition plan for coal miners includes early retirement, redundancy packages, silicosis compensation, retraining for green jobs, and priority job placement for former miners.

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[[File:a9c6c5133c22e6dab2f7854131b277bc IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Figure_4_9.png]]

Figure 4.9 | Just Transitions around the world, 2020. '''Panel (a)''' shows commissions, task forces, dialogues behind a just transition in many countries ( [[#Schweitzer--2003|Schweitzer and Tonn 2003]] ; [[#Thalmann--2004|Thalmann 2004]] ; [[#Harrison--2013|Harrison 2013]] ; [[#Galgóczi--2014|Galgóczi 2014]] ; [[#Mendoza--2014|Mendoza 2014]] ; Adeoti et al. 2016; [[#Ng--2016|Ng et al. 2016]] ; [[#Gass--2017|Gass and Echeverria 2017]] ; [[#Snell--2018|Snell 2018]] ; [[#ILO--2018|ILO 2018]] ; [[#Ministry%20of%20Employment%20and%20Labour%20Relations%20of%20Ghana--2018|Ministry of Employment and Labour Relations of Ghana 2018]] ; Szpor, A. and Ziółkowska 2018; [[#van%20Asselt--2018|van Asselt and Moerenhout 2018]] ; [[#Bankwatch--2019|Bankwatch 2019]] ; [[#Commission%20on%20Growth%20Structural%20Change%20and%20Employment--2019|Commission on Growth Structural Change and Employment 2019]] ; [[#European%20Union--2019|European Union 2019]] , 2020; [[#Galgóczi--2019|Galgóczi 2019]] ; [[#Government%20of%20Canada--2019|Government of Canada 2019]] ; [[#Government%20of%20Costa%20Rica--2019|Government of Costa Rica 2019]] ; [[#NPC%20(National%20Planning%20Commission)--2019|NPC (National Planning Commission) 2019]] ; Ministry of Business Innovation &amp; Employment New Zealand 2019; [[#Piggot--2019|Piggot et al. 2019]] ; [[#Popp--2019|Popp 2019]] ; [[#Strambo--2019|Strambo et al. 2019]] ; [[#Government%20of%20Spain--2019|Government of Spain 2019]] ; [[#Finnish%20Government--2020|Finnish Government 2020]] ; Scottish Government 2020; [[#White%20House--2016|White House 2016]] ; [[#Mijn%20Cha--2020|Mijn Cha et al. 2020]] ); '''p''' '''anel (b)''' shows the funds related to the Just Transition within the European Union Green Deal, and '''panel (c)''' shows the European Union’s Platform for Coal Regions in Transition.

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=== Box 4.6 | Selected Organisations and Movements Supporting a Just Transition ===

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'''•''' 350.org (global)

'''•''' Asian Pacific Forum on Women, Law and Development (Asia Pacific)

'''•''' Blue Green Alliance (USA)

'''•''' Beyond Coal campaign (USA)

'''•''' Central Única dos Trabalhadores (Brazil)

'''•''' Climate Action Network (global)

'''•''' Climate Justice Alliance (USA)

'''•''' Cooperation Jackson (USA)

'''•''' Dejusticia (Colombia)

'''•''' Deutscher Gewerkschaftsbund (German Trade Union Confederation, Germany)

'''•''' DiEM25 (pan-European)

'''•''' European Union

'''•''' European Trade Union Confederation (EU)

'''•''' Grassroots Global Justice (USA)

'''•''' IndustriALL Global Union (global)

'''•''' Indigenous Environmental Network (USA)

'''•''' International Labor Organization (global)

'''•''' ITUC-affiliated Just Transition Centre (global)

'''•''' ITUC-affiliated Just Transition Centre (Americas)

'''•''' Just Transition Alliance (USA)

'''•''' Just Transition Centre (global)

'''•''' Just Transition Fund (USA)

'''•''' Kentuckians for the Commonwealth (USA)

'''•''' Labor Network for Sustainability (USA)

'''•''' Latrobe Valley Authority (Australia)

'''•''' Movement Generation (USA)

'''•''' NAACP (USA)

'''•''' National Union of Mineworkers of South Africa (South Africa)

'''•''' Pan African Climate Justice Alliance (Africa)

'''•''' Post Petroleum Transitions Roundtable (Mesa de Transición Post Petrolera) (Argentina)

'''•''' Powering Past Coal Alliance (global)

'''•''' Right to the city alliance (USA)

'''•''' Sierra Club (USA)

'''•''' Sunrise Movement (USA)

'''•''' The Leap Manifesto (Canada)

'''•''' The Trade Unions for Energy Democracy Initiative (global)

'''•''' Trade Union Confederation of the Americas (TUCA)

'''•''' Transition Towns Movement (UK)

'''•''' Women’s Environment and Development Organization (global)

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