Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-11 (section)

== 11.8 Climate Resilient Development Pathways ==

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Adaptation to climate risks and global mitigation of greenhouse emissions determine whether development pathways are climate-resilient (Chapter 18). In the near term, progress towards climate resilient development can be monitored by progress on the SDGs. According to government reports (Figure 11.6) ( [[#OECD--2019a|OECD, 2019a]] ), current and projected trajectories fall short of meeting all targets ( [[#Allen--2019|Allen et al., 2019]] ). Key climate risks for the region (11.6, Table 11.14) affect all of the SDGs, and pre-existing societal inequalities exacerbate climate risks (11.3.5). Projected climate risks combined with underlying SDG indicators will increasingly impede the region’s capacity to achieve and maintain a number of SDGs, including sustainable agriculture, affordable and clean energy, sustainable cities and communities, life below water and life on land ( [[#OECD--2019a|OECD, 2019a]] ). Reducing these risks would require significant and rapid emission reductions to keep global warming to 1.5°C–2.0°C and robust and timely adaptation ( [[#IPCC--2018|IPCC, 2018]] ).

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=== 11.8.1 System Adaptations and Transitions ===

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A step change in adaptation action is needed to address climate risks and to be consistent with climate resilient development ( ''very high confidence'' ) ''.'' Current adaptation falls short on the assessment of complex risks, implementation, monitoring and evaluation. It is largely incremental and temporary given the scale of projected impacts; it has limits and is mainly reactive rather than anticipatory. Furthermore, risks are projected to cascade and compound, with impacts and costs that challenge adaptive capacities (11.5) and call for transformational responses (11.6, Table 11.15a, Table 11.15b; Supplementary Tables SM11.1a and SM11.1b).

Current global emissions reduction policies are projected to lead to a global warming of 2.1°C–3.9°C by 2100 ( [[#Liu--2021|Liu and Raftery, 2021]] ), leaving many of the region’s human and natural systems at very high risk and beyond adaptation limits ( ''high confidence'' ). With higher levels of warming, adaptation costs increase, loss and damages grow, and governance and institutional responses reduce adaptive capacity. Underlying social and economic vulnerabilities and injustices further reduce adaptive capacity, exacerbating disadvantage in particular groups in society. Sustainable development across and beyond the region will help reduce shared adaptation challenges (11.5.1.2). Effective adaptation avoids lock-in and path dependency, reduces vulnerabilities, increases flexibility to change, builds adaptive capacity and advances SDGs, thereby improving intra- and intergenerational justice (11.5, 11.6, 11.7). Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and structural inequalities is key to achieving the SDGs and contributing to climate resilient development.

Integrated and inclusive adaptation decision-making can contribute to climate resilient development by better mediating competing values, interests and priorities and helping to reconcile short- and long-term objectives, as well as public and private costs and benefits, in the face of rapidly and continuously changing risk profiles ( ''very high confidence'' ) ( [[#Gorddard--2016|Gorddard et al., 2016]] ; [[#MfE--2017a|MfE, 2017a]] ; [[#Schlosberg--2017|Schlosberg et al., 2017]] ) (11.5.2) ''.'' Use of new tools and approaches (Table 11.18) to address system interactions that match the scale and scope of the problem can result in more effective adaptation, including proactive and anticipatory governance and institutional enablers (11.7, Table 11.17) ( [[#Schlosberg--2017|Schlosberg et al., 2017]] ; [[#Boston--2018|Boston and Lawrence, 2018]] ). Building cities and settlements that are resilient to the impacts of climate change requires the simultaneous consideration of infrastructural, ecological, social, economic, institutional and political dimensions of resilience, including political will, leadership, commitment, community support, multi-level governance and policy continuity ( [[#Torabi--2021|Torabi et al., 2021]] ).

'''Table 11.18 |''' Examples of adaptation decision tools

{| class="wikitable"
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! Tools

! Application

! Source

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| Scenario analysis, modelling, futures narratives

| For futures planning in coastal, urban, agriculture and health sectors

| ( [[#Randall--2012|Randall et al., 2012]] ; [[#Jones--2013|Jones et al., 2013]] ; [[#CSIRO--2014|CSIRO, 2014]] ; [[#Bosomworth--2015|Bosomworth et al., 2015]] ; [[#Infometrics%20and%20PSConsulting--2015|Infometrics and PSConsulting, 2015]] ; [[#Knight-Lenihan--2016|Knight-Lenihan, 2016]] ; [[#Maier--2016|Maier et al., 2016]] ; [[#Stephens--2017|Stephens et al., 2017]] ; B. Frame et al., 2018; [[#Stephens--2018|Stephens et al., 2018]] ; [[#Ausseil--2019a|Ausseil et al., 2019a]] ; [[#Coulter--2019|Coulter et al., 2019]] ; [[#Serrao-Neumann--2019b|Serrao-Neumann et al., 2019b]] )

|-
| Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning (DAPP)

| For conditions of deep uncertainty for short-term and long-term options and flexibility, and with communities

| ( [[#Cradock-Henry--2018b|Cradock-Henry et al., 2018b]] ; [[#Cradock-Henry--2020a|Cradock-Henry et al., 2020a]] ) (agriculture); ( [[#Lawrence--2019b|Lawrence et al., 2019b]] ) (flood risk management)

( [[#Lawrence--2017|Lawrence and Haasnoot, 2017]] ; [[#Colliar--2018|Colliar and Blackett, 2018]] ) (coastal communities)

( [[#Tasmanian%20Climate%20Change%20Office--2012|Tasmanian Climate Change Office, 2012]] ; [[#Lin--2017|Lin et al., 2017]] ; [[#Ramm--2018|Ramm et al., 2018]] ) (capacity building)

( [[#Moran--2014|Moran et al., 2014]] ; [[#Colloff--2016|Colloff et al., 2016]] ; [[#Dunlop--2016|Dunlop et al., 2016]] ; [[#Bosomworth--2017|Bosomworth et al., 2017]] ) (natural resource, management)

( [[#Hadwen--2012|Hadwen et al., 2012]] ; [[#Barnett--2014|Barnett et al., 2014]] ; [[#Fazey--2015|Fazey et al., 2015]] ; [[#Lazarow--2017|Lazarow, 2017]] ; [[#Ramm--2018|Ramm et al., 2018]] ) (coastal)

( [[#Siebentritt--2014|Siebentritt et al., 2014]] ; [[#Zografos--2016|Zografos et al., 2016]] ) (regional development)

( [[#Maru--2014|Maru et al., 2014]] ) (disadvantaged communities)

( [[#Hertzler--2013|Hertzler et al., 2013]] ; [[#Sanderson--2015|Sanderson et al., 2015]] ) (agriculture)

( [[#Ren--2011|Ren et al., 2011]] ) (infrastructure and resilient cities)

( [[#Cunningham--2017|Cunningham et al., 2017]] ) (social network analysis with communities)

|-
| Serious Games

| To catalyse learning, raise awareness and explore attitudes and values

| ( [[#Lawrence--2017|Lawrence and Haasnoot, 2017]] ; [[#Colliar--2018|Colliar and Blackett, 2018]] ; [[#Flood--2018|Flood et al., 2018]] ; [[#Edwards--2019|Edwards et al., 2019]] )

|-
| Signals and Triggers for monitoring DAPP

| For where there is near-term certainty and longer-term deep uncertainty (e.g., SLR)

| ( [[#Stephens--2017|Stephens et al., 2017]] ; [[#Stephens--2018|Stephens et al., 2018]] )

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| Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

| For where there is deep uncertainty and scenarios are used

| (B. Frame et al., 2018)

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| Hybrid Multi-criteria analysis and DAPP (deep uncertainty)

| For conditions of deep uncertainty for short-term and long-term options and flexibility desired

| ( [[#Lawrence--2019a|Lawrence et al., 2019a]] )

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| Real Options Analysis (ROA)

| For conditions of deep uncertainty

| ( [[#Infometrics%20and%20PSConsulting--2015|Infometrics and PSConsulting, 2015]] ; [[#Infometrics--2017|Infometrics, 2017]] ; [[#Lawrence--2019a|Lawrence et al., 2019a]] ; [[#Wreford--2020|Wreford et al., 2020]] )

|-
| Scenario-based cost-benefit analysis

| For conditions of deep uncertainty

| ( [[#Guthrie--2019|Guthrie, 2019]] )

|-
| Portfolio analysis

| For uncertainties in the land use sector

| ( [[#Monge--2016|Monge et al., 2016]] ; [[#Awatere--2018|Awatere et al., 2018]] ; [[#West--2021|West et al., 2021]] )

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| Cost Benefit Analysis

| Where decisions can be easily reversed

| ( [[#Hadwen--2012|Hadwen et al., 2012]] ; [[#Little--2015|Little and Lin, 2015]] ; [[#Stewart--2015|Stewart, 2015]] ; [[#Luo--2017|Luo et al., 2017]] ; [[#Thamo--2017|Thamo et al., 2017]] )

|-
| Vulnerability assessment

| For assessing and prioritising physical and social place-based risks, using indices, modelling and participatory approaches

| ( [[#Ramm--2017|Ramm et al., 2017]] ; [[#Moglia--2018|Moglia et al., 2018]] ; [[#Pearce--2018|Pearce et al., 2018]] ; [[#Tonmoy--2018|Tonmoy and El-Zein, 2018]] )

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| Statutory tools

| For planning direction

For planning and design of adaptation

| ( [[#DoC%20NZ--2010|DoC NZ, 2010]] ; [[#DoC%20NZ--2017a|DoC NZ, 2017a]] ; [[#DoC%20NZ--2017b|DoC NZ, 2017b]] ; [[#NSW%20Government--2018|NSW Government, 2018]] )

( [[#MfE--2017a|MfE, 2017a]] )

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| Standards

| For adaptation best practice

| (ISO, 2019)

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| Jurisprudence

| For adaptation implementation and legal interpretation

| ( [[#O’Donnell--2013|O’Donnell and Gates, 2013]] ; [[#McAdam--2015|McAdam, 2015]] ; [[#Iorns%20Magallanes--2019|Iorns Magallanes and Watts, 2019]] ; [[#Peel--2020|Peel et al., 2020]] )

|-
| Guidance

| For adaptation and use of uncertainty tools

| ( [[#CSIRO%20and%20BOM--2015|CSIRO and BOM, 2015]] ; [[#MfE--2017a|MfE, 2017a]] ; [[#Lawrence--2018b|Lawrence et al., 2018b]] ; [[#Palutikof--2019b|Palutikof et al., 2019b]] )

|-
| Information delivery and decision support portal

| For adaptation decision making

| https://coastadapt.com.au/

|-
| Monitoring, evaluation and reporting on adaptation progress (incl. adaptation indices and web-based tools)

| For local government, private sector and finance sector to benchmark, track progress

| ( [[#Goodhue--2012|Goodhue et al., 2012]] ; [[#Little--2015|Little et al., 2015]] ; [[#IGCC--2017|IGCC, 2017]] ; [[#Lawrence--2020a|Lawrence et al., 2020a]] ; LGAQ and DES, 2020; [[#Rogers--2020b|Rogers et al., 2020b]] ; WAGA, 2020)

( [[#Moloney--2018|Moloney and McClaren, 2018]] )

|}

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=== 11.8.2 Challenges for Climate Resilient Development Pathways ===

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Implementing enablers can help drive adaptation ambition and action consistent with climate resilient development ( ''very high confidence'' ) (11.7.3, Table 11.17). However, the scale and scope of cascading, compounding and aggregate impacts (11.5.1) calls for new and timely adaptation, including more effective ongoing monitoring, evaluation, review and continual adjustment (11.7.3) towards the transformations that can break through the path dependencies that define the way things are done now ( [[#Cradock-Henry--2018b|Cradock-Henry et al., 2018b]] ; UN et al., 2018; [[#Head--2020|Head, 2020]] ). However, complex interactions between objectives can create social and economic trade-offs (Table 11.1, 11.3.5.3, 11.7.3.1, Box 11.6).

Delay in implementing climate change adaptation and emissions reductions will impede climate resilient development, resulting in more costly climate impacts and greater scale of adjustments in the future ( [[#IPCC--2018|IPCC, 2018]] ) (11.5.1, 11.5.2, Box 11.6) and legal risks for those with adaptation mandates and for financial institutions (11.5.1) ( ''very high confidence'' ). The scale and scope of societal change needed for the region to transition to more climate resilient development pathways requires close attention to governance, ethical questions, the role of civil society and the place of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples and Tangata Whenua Māori in the co-production of ongoing adaptation at multiple scales ( [[#Loorbach--2017|Loorbach et al., 2017]] ; [[#Koehler--2019|Koehler et al., 2019]] ; [[#Hill--2020|Hill et al., 2020]] ).

The region faces an extremely challenging future that will be highly disruptive for many human and natural systems ( [[#IPCC--2018|IPCC, 2018]] ) ( [[#UNEP--2020|UNEP, 2020]] ; [[#AAS--2021|AAS, 2021]] ; [[#IPCC--2021|IPCC, 2021]] ) (11.5.1, 11.6, 11.7; Boxes 11.1–11.6; Table 11.14). The extent to which the limits to adaptation are reached depends on whether global warming peaks this century at 1.5°C, 2°C or 3+°C above pre-industrial levels. Whatever the outcome, adaptation and mitigation are essential and urgent ( ''very high confidence'' ).

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