Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-16 (section)

===== Emergent risk =====

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AR5 [[#Oppenheimer--2014|Oppenheimer et al. (2014)]] defined ‘emergent risk’ as a risk that arises from the interaction of phenomena in a complex system. While emergent risk is a relevant consideration for this RFC risk assessment, this type of risk has not been explicitly accounted for in the burning ember assessment because of the limited literature basis. Unlike known or identified risks, emergent risks are characterised by the uncertainty of consequences and/or probabilities of occurrence. The International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) suggests three categories of emergent risks: (1) high uncertainty and a lack of knowledge about potential impacts and interactions with risk-absorbing systems; (2) increasing complexity, emergent interactions and systemic dependencies that can lead to nonlinear impacts and surprises; and (3) changes in context (for example, social and behavioural trends, organisational settings, regulations, natural environments) that may alter the nature, probability and magnitude of expected impacts. Feedback processes between climatic change, human interventions involving mitigation and adaptation actions, and processes in natural systems can be classified as emergent risks if they pose a threat to human security.

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