Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

==== 9.6.3.1 Protected Areas and Climate Change ====

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African protected areas store around 1.5% of global land ecosystem carbon stocks and support biodiversity ( [[#Gray--2016|Gray et al., 2016]] ; [[#Melillo--2016|Melillo et al., 2016]] ; [[#Sala--2018|Sala et al., 2018]] ). They also support livelihoods and economies, such as through nature-based tourism and improved fisheries ( [[#Brockington--2015|Brockington and Wilkie, 2015]] ; [[#Mavah--2018|Mavah et al., 2018]] ; [[#Ban--2019|Ban et al., 2019]] ).

Climate change and land use change will interact to influence the effectiveness of African protected areas ( ''high confidence'' ). Species representation in the existing African protected area network is projected to decrease due to species range shifts for mammals, bats, birds and amphibians ( [[#Hole--2009|Hole et al., 2009]] ; [[#Baker--2015|Baker et al., 2015]] ; [[#Payne--2016|Payne and Bro-Jørgensen, 2016]] ; [[#Smith--2016|Smith et al., 2016]] ; [[#Phipps--2017|Phipps et al., 2017]] ). Species ability to disperse between areas to track shifting climates is increasingly impaired by land transformation and fencing, which also impact seasonal wildlife migrations ( [[#Lovschal--2017|Lovschal et al., 2017]] ; [[#Sloan--2017|Sloan et al., 2017]] ). On land, only 0.5% of the African protected area network is connected through low-impact landscapes ( [[#Ward--2020|Ward et al., 2020]] ). Linear transport infrastructure (e.g., roads, railways, pipelines) and fencing from proposed ‘development corridors’ are projected to bisect over 400 protected areas and degrade around 1800 more ( [[#Laurance--2015|Laurance et al., 2015]] ). Climate change could increase human–wildlife conflict as resultant resource shortages cause communities to move into protected areas for harvesting or livestock grazing, or wildlife to move out of protected areas and into contact with people ( [[#Mukeka--2018|Mukeka et al., 2018]] ; [[#Kupika--2019|Kupika et al., 2019]] ; [[#Hambira--2020|Hambira et al., 2020]] ). See [[#9.6.4|Section 9.6.4]] for the role of land and ocean protected areas in climate change adaptation.

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