Editing IPCC:AR6/SROCC/Chapter-3 (section)

==== 3.4.3.3 Impacts on Social-Ecological Systems ====

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The Arctic is home to over four million people, with large regional variation in population distribution and demographics (Heleniak, 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1824|1824]]</sup> ). ‘Connection with nature’ is a defining feature of Arctic identity for indigenous communities (Schweitzer et al., 2014) because the lands, waters and ice that surround communities evoke a sense of home, freedom and belonging, and are crucial for culture, life and survival (Cunsolo Willox et al., 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1825|1825]]</sup> ; Durkalec et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1826|1826]]</sup> ). Climate-driven environmental changes are affecting local ecosystems and influencing travel, hunting, fishing and gathering practises. This has implications for people’s livelihoods, cultural practices, economies and self-determination.

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<span id="food-and-water-security"></span>
===== 3.4.3.3.1 Food and water security =====

Impacts of climate change on food and water security in the Arctic can be severe in regions where infrastructure (including ice roads), travel and subsistence practices are reliant on elements of the cryosphere such as snow cover, permafrost and freshwater or sea ice (Cochran et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1828|1828]]</sup> ; Inuit Circumpolar Council-Alaska (ICC-AK), 2015).

There is ''high confidence'' in indicators that food insecurity risks are on the rise for Indigenous Arctic peoples. Food is strongly tied to culture, identity, values and ways of life (Donaldson et al., 2010 <sup>[[#fn:r1829|1829]]</sup> ; Cunsolo Willox et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1830|1830]]</sup> ; Inuit Circumpolar Council-Alaska (ICC-AK), 2015); thus, impacts to food security go beyond access to food and physical health. Food systems in northern communities are intertwined with northern ecosystems because of subsistence hunting, fishing and gathering activities. Environmental changes to animal habitat, population sizes and movement mean that culturally important food species may no longer be found within accessible ranges or familiar areas (Parlee and Furgal, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1831|1831]]</sup> ; Rautio et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1832|1832]]</sup> ; Inuit Circumpolar Council-Alaska (ICC-AK), 2015; Lavrillier et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1833|1833]]</sup> ) (Section 3.4.3.2.2). This impacts negatively the accessibility of culturally important local food sources (Lavrillier, 2013; Rosol et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1834|1834]]</sup> ) that make important contributions to a nutritious diet (Donaldson et al., 2010 <sup>[[#fn:r1835|1835]]</sup> ; Hansen et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1836|1836]]</sup> ; Dudley et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1837|1837]]</sup> ). Longer open water seasons and poorer ice conditions on lakes impact fishing options (Laidler, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1838|1838]]</sup> ) and waterfowl hunting (Goldhar et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1839|1839]]</sup> ). Permafrost warming and increases in active layer thickness (Section 3.4.1.3) reduce the reliability of permafrost for natural refrigeration. In some cases these changes have reduced access to, and consumption of, locally resourced food and can result in increased incidence of illness (Laidler, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1840|1840]]</sup> ; Cochran et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1841|1841]]</sup> ; Cozzetto et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1842|1842]]</sup> ; Rautio et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1843|1843]]</sup> ; Beaumier et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1844|1844]]</sup> ). These consequences of climate change are intertwined with processes of globalisation, whereby complex social, economic and cultural factors are contributing to a dietary transformation from locally resourced foods to imported market foods across the Arctic (Harder and Wenzel, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1845|1845]]</sup> ; Parlee and Furgal, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1846|1846]]</sup> ; Nymand and Fondahl, 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1847|1847]]</sup> ; Beaumier et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1848|1848]]</sup> ). Limiting exposures to zoonotic, foodborne and waterborne pathogens (Section 3.4.3.2.2) depends on accurate and comprehensive data on species diversity, biology and distribution and pathways for invasion (Hoberg and Brooks, 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1849|1849]]</sup> ; Kafle et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1850|1850]]</sup> ).

There is ''high confidence'' that changes to travel conditions impact food security through access to hunting grounds. Shorter snow cover duration (Section 3.4.1.1), and changes to snow conditions (such as density) make travel more difficult and dangerous (Laidler, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1851|1851]]</sup> ; Ford et al., 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r1852|1852]]</sup> ). Changes in dominant wind direction and speed reduce the reliability of traditional navigational indicators such as snow drifts, increasing safety concerns (Ford and Pearce, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1853|1853]]</sup> ; Laidler, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1854|1854]]</sup> ; Ford et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1855|1855]]</sup> ; Clark et al., 2016b <sup>[[#fn:r1856|1856]]</sup> ). Permafrost warming, increased active layer thickness and landscape instability (Section 3.4.1.3), fire disturbance and changes to water levels (Section 3.4.1.2) impact overland navigability in summer (Goldhar et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1857|1857]]</sup> ; Brinkman et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1858|1858]]</sup> ; Dodd et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1859|1859]]</sup> ).

There is ''high confidence'' that both risks and opportunities arise for coastal communities with changing sea ice and open water conditions. Of particular concern for coastal communities is landfast sea ice (Section 3.3.1.1.5), which creates an extension of the land in winter that facilitates travel (Inuit Circumpolar Council Canada, 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1860|1860]]</sup> ). The floe edge position, timing and dynamics of freeze-up and break-up, sea ice stability through the winter, and length of the summer open water season are important indicators of changing ice conditions and safe travel (Gearheard et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1861|1861]]</sup> ; Eicken et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1862|1862]]</sup> ; Baztan et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1863|1863]]</sup> ). Warming water temperature, altered salinity profiles, snow properties, changing currents and winds all have consequences for the use of sea ice as a travel or hunting platform (Hansen et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1864|1864]]</sup> ; Eicken et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1865|1865]]</sup> ; Clark et al., 2016a <sup>[[#fn:r1866|1866]]</sup> ). More leads (areas of open water), especially in the spring, can mean more hunting opportunities such as whaling off the coast of Alaska (Hansen et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1867|1867]]</sup> ; Eicken et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1868|1868]]</sup> ). In Nunavut, a floe edge closer to shore improves access to marine mammals such as seals or narwhal (Ford et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1869|1869]]</sup> ). However, these conditions also hamper access to coastal or inland hunting grounds (Hansen et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1870|1870]]</sup> ; Durkalec et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1871|1871]]</sup> ), have increased potential for break-off events at the floe edge (Ford et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1872|1872]]</sup> ), or can result in decreased presence (or total absence) of ice-associated marine mammals with an absence of summer sea ice (Eicken et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1873|1873]]</sup> ).

Many northern communities rely on ponds, streams and lakes for drinking water (Cochran et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1874|1874]]</sup> ; Goldhar et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1875|1875]]</sup> ; Nymand and Fondahl, 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1876|1876]]</sup> ; Daley et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1877|1877]]</sup> ; Dudley et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1878|1878]]</sup> ; Masina et al., 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r1879|1879]]</sup> ), so there is ''high confidence'' that projected changes in hydrology will impact water supply (Section 3.4.2.2). Surface water is vulnerable to thermokarst disturbance and drainage, as well as bacterial contamination, the risks of which are increased by warming ground and water temperatures (Cozzetto et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1880|1880]]</sup> ; Goldhar et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1881|1881]]</sup> ; Dudley et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1882|1882]]</sup> ; Masina et al., 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r1883|1883]]</sup> ). Icebergs or old multi-year ice are important sources of drinking water for some coastal communities, so reduced accessibility to stable sea ice conditions affects local water security. Small remote communities have limited capacity to respond quickly to water supply threats, which amplifies vulnerabilities to water security (Daley et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1884|1884]]</sup> ).

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<span id="communities"></span>
===== 3.4.3.3.2 Communities =====

''Culture and knowledge''

Spending time on the land is culturally important for indigenous communities (Eicken et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1885|1885]]</sup> ; Durkalec et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1886|1886]]</sup> ). There is ''high confidence'' that daily life is influenced by changes to ice freeze-up and break-up (rivers/lakes/sea ice), snow onset/melt, vegetation phenology, and related wildlife/fish/bird behaviour (Inuit Circumpolar Council-Alaska (ICC-AK), 2015). Inter-generational knowledge transmission of associated values and skills is also influenced by climate change because younger generations do not have the same level of experience or confidence with traditional indicators (Ford, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1887|1887]]</sup> ; Parlee and Furgal, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1888|1888]]</sup> ; Eicken et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1889|1889]]</sup> ; Pearce et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1890|1890]]</sup> ). Climate-driven changes undermine confidence in indigenous knowledge holders in regards to traditional indicators used for safe travel and navigation (Parlee and Furgal, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1891|1891]]</sup> ; Golovnev, 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1892|1892]]</sup> ; Ford et al., 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r1893|1893]]</sup> ).

''Economics''

The Arctic mixed economy is characterised by a combination of subsistence activities, and employment and cash income. There is ''low confidence'' about the extent and nature of impact of climate change on local subsistence activities and economic opportunities across the Arctic (e.g., hunting, fishing, resource extraction, tourism and transportation; see Section 3.2.4) because of high variability between communities (Harder and Wenzel, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1894|1894]]</sup> ; Cochran et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1895|1895]]</sup> ; Clark et al., 2016b <sup>[[#fn:r1896|1896]]</sup> ; Fall, 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1897|1897]]</sup> ; Ford et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1898|1898]]</sup> ; Lavrillier et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1899|1899]]</sup> ). Longer ice-free travel windows in Arctic seas could lower the costs of access and development of northern resources (delivering supplies and shipping resources to markets) and thus, may contribute to increased opportunities for marine shipping, commercial fisheries, tourism and resource development (Sections 3.2.4.2, 3.2.4.3) (Ford et al., 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1900|1900]]</sup> ; Huskey et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1901|1901]]</sup> ; Overland et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1902|1902]]</sup> ). This has important implications for economic development, particularly in relation to local employment opportunities but also raises concerns of detrimental impacts on animals, habitat and subsistence activities (Cochran et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1903|1903]]</sup> ; Inuit Circumpolar Council-Alaska (ICC-AK), 2015).

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<span id="health-and-wellbeing"></span>
===== 3.4.3.3.3 Health and wellbeing =====

For many polar residents, especially Indigenous peoples, the physical environment underpins social determinants of well-being, including physical and mental health. Changes to the environment impact most dimensions of health and well-being (Parlee and Furgal, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1904|1904]]</sup> ; Ostapchuk et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1905|1905]]</sup> ). Climate change consequences in polar regions (Sections 3.3.1.1, 3.4.1.2) have impacted key transportation routes (Gearheard et al., 2006 <sup>[[#fn:r1906|1906]]</sup> ; Laidler, 2006 <sup>[[#fn:r1907|1907]]</sup> ; Ford et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1908|1908]]</sup> ; Clark et al., 2016a <sup>[[#fn:r1909|1909]]</sup> ) and pose increased risk of injury and death during travel (Durkalec et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1910|1910]]</sup> ; Durkalec et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1911|1911]]</sup> ; Clark et al., 2016b <sup>[[#fn:r1912|1912]]</sup> ; Driscoll et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1913|1913]]</sup> ).

Foodborne disease is an emerging concern in the Arctic because warmer waters, loss of sea ice (Section 3.3.1.1) and resultant changes in contaminant pathways can lead to bioaccumulation and biomagnification of contaminants in key food species. While many hypothesised foodborne diseases are not well studied (Parkinson and Berner, 2009 <sup>[[#fn:r1914|1914]]</sup> ), foodborne gastroenteritis is associated with shellfish harvested from warming waters (McLaughlin et al., 2005 <sup>[[#fn:r1915|1915]]</sup> ; Young et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1916|1916]]</sup> ). Mercury presently stored in permafrost (Schuster et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1917|1917]]</sup> ) has potential to accumulate in aquatic ecosystems.

Climate change increases the risk of waterborne disease in the Arctic via warming water temperatures and changes to surface hydrology (Section 3.4.1.2) (Parkinson and Berner, 2009 <sup>[[#fn:r1918|1918]]</sup> ; Brubaker et al., 2011 <sup>[[#fn:r1910|1910]]</sup> ; Dudley et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1920|1920]]</sup> ). After periods of rapid snowmelt, bacteria can increase in untreated drinking water, with associated increases in acute gastrointestinal illness (Harper et al., 2011 <sup>[[#fn:r1921|1921]]</sup> ). Consumption of untreated drinking water may increase duration and frequency of exposure to local environmental contaminants (Section 3.4.3.2.3) or potential waterborne diseases (Goldhar et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1922|1922]]</sup> ; Daley et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1923|1923]]</sup> ). The potential for infectious gastrointestinal disease is not well understood, and there are concerns in relation to the safety of storage containers of raw water in addition to the quality of the source water itself (Goldhar et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1924|1924]]</sup> ; Wright et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1925|1925]]</sup> ; Masina et al., 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r1926|1926]]</sup> ).

Climate change has negatively affected place attachment via hunting, fishing, trapping and traveling disruptions, which have important mental health impacts (Cunsolo Willox et al., 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1927|1927]]</sup> ; Durkalec et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1928|1928]]</sup> ; Cunsolo and Ellis, 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1929|1929]]</sup> ). The pathways through which climate change impacts mental wellness in the Arctic varies by gender (Bunce and Ford, 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1930|1930]]</sup> ; Ostapchuk et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1931|1931]]</sup> ; Bunce et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1932|1932]]</sup> ) and age (Petrasek-MacDonald et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1933|1933]]</sup> ; Ostapchuk et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1934|1934]]</sup> ). Emotional impacts of climate-related changes in the environment were significantly higher for women compared to men, linked to concern for family members (Ostapchuk et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1935|1935]]</sup> ). However, men are also vulnerable due to gendered roles in subsistence and cultural activities (Bunce and Ford, 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1936|1936]]</sup> ). In coastal areas, sea ice means freedom for travel, hunting and fishing, so changes in sea ice affect the experience of and connection with place. In turn, this influences individual and collective mental/emotional health, as well as spiritual and social vitality according to relationships between sea ice use, culture, knowledge and autonomy (Cunsolo Willox et al., 2013a <sup>[[#fn:r1937|1937]]</sup> ; Cunsolo Willox et al., 2013b <sup>[[#fn:r1938|1938]]</sup> ; Gearheard et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1939|1939]]</sup> ; Durkalec et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1940|1940]]</sup> ; Inuit Circumpolar Council-Alaska (ICC-AK), 2015).

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<span id="infrastructure"></span>
===== 3.4.3.3.4 Infrastructure =====

Permafrost is undergoing rapid change (Section 3.4.1.2), creating challenges for planners, decision makers and engineers (AMAP, 2017d <sup>[[#fn:r1941|1941]]</sup> ). The observed changes in the ground thermal regime (Romanovsky et al., 2010 <sup>[[#fn:r1942|1942]]</sup> ; Romanovsky et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1943|1943]]</sup> ; Biskaborn et al., 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r1944|1944]]</sup> ) threaten the structural stability and functional capacities of infrastructure, in particular that which is located on ice rich frozen ground. Extensive summaries of construction damages along with adaptation and mitigation strategies are available (Larsen et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1945|1945]]</sup> ; Dore et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1946|1946]]</sup> ; AMAP, 2017d <sup>[[#fn:r1947|1947]]</sup> ; Pendakur, 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1948|1948]]</sup> ; Shiklomanov et al., 2017a <sup>[[#fn:r1949|1949]]</sup> ; Shiklomanov et al., 2017b <sup>[[#fn:r1950|1950]]</sup> ; Vincent et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1951|1951]]</sup> ).

Projections of climate and permafrost suggest that a wide range current infrastructure will be impacted by changing conditions ( ''medium confidence'' ). A circumpolar study found that approximately 70% of infrastructure (residential, transportation and industrial facilities), including over 1200 settlements (~40 with population more than 5000) are located in areas where permafrost is projected to thaw by 2050 under RCP4.5 (Hjort et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1952|1952]]</sup> ). Regions associated with the highest hazard are in the thaw-unstable zone characterised by relatively high ground-ice content and thick deposits of frost susceptible sediments (Shiklomanov et al., 2017b <sup>[[#fn:r1953|1953]]</sup> ). By 2050, these high hazard environments contain one-third of existing pan-Arctic infrastructure. Onshore hydrocarbon extraction and transportation in the Russian Arctic are at risk: 45% of the oil and natural gas production fields in the Russian Arctic are located in the highest hazard zone.

In a regional study of the state of Alaska, cumulative expenses projected for climate-related damage to public infrastructure totalled USD 5.5 billion between 2015 and 2099 under RCP8.5 (Melvin et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1954|1954]]</sup> ). The top two causes of damage related costs were projected to be road flooding from increased precipitation, and building damage associated with near-surface permafrost thaw. These costs decreased by 24% to USD 4.2 billion for the same time frame under RCP4.5, indicating that reducing greenhouse gas emissions globally could lessen damages (Figure 3.13). In a related study that included these costs and others, as well as positive gains from climate change in terms of a reduction in heating costs attributable to warmer winter, annual net costs were still USD 340–700 million, or 0.6–1.3% of Alaska’s GDP, suggesting that climate change costs will outweigh positive benefits, at least for this region (Berman and Schmidt, 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r1955|1955]]</sup> ).

Winter roads (snow covered ground and frozen lakes) are distinct from the infrastructure considered earlier, but have a strong influence on the reliability and costs of transportation in some remote northern communities and industrial development sites (Parlee and Furgal, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1956|1956]]</sup> ; Huskey et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1957|1957]]</sup> ; Overland et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1958|1958]]</sup> ). For these communities, changing lake and river levels and the period of safe ice cover all affect the duration of use of overland travel routes and inland waterways, with associated implications for increased travel risks, time, and costs (Laidler, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1959|1959]]</sup> ; Ford et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1960|1960]]</sup> ; Goldhar et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1961|1961]]</sup> ). There have been recent instances of severely curtailed ice road shipping seasons due to unusually warm conditions in the early winter (Sturm et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1962|1962]]</sup> ). While the impact of human effort on the maintenance of winter roads is difficult to quantify, a reduction in the operational time window due to winter warming is projected (Mullan et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1963|1963]]</sup> ).

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