Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-9 (section)

===== 9.6.3.2.7 Ocean dynamic sea level =====

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In AR5 and SROCC, the ocean dynamic sea level contribution to RSL projections was derived from the CMIP5 ensemble, after removing the drift estimate based on pre-industrial control simulations. This Report uses updated simulations from the CMIP6 ensemble ( [[#9.2.4.2|Section 9.2.4.2]] ; Supplementary Material 9.SM.4.2) to project the ocean dynamic sea level contribution to RSL change ( [[#9.2.4.2|Section 9.2.4.2]] ; Figure 9.26). To produce ocean dynamic sea level projections consistent with the global mean thermosteric projections from the two-layer energy budget emulator, we follow the approach of [[#Kopp--2014|Kopp et al. (2014)]] , employing a correlation between global-mean thermosteric sea level change and ocean dynamic sea level derived from the CMIP6 ensemble (Supplementary Material 9.SM.4.3). Since CMIP6 models are of fairly coarse resolution (typically about 100 km), and even the models participating in HighResMIP (near 10 km resolution) do not capture all the phenomena that contribute to coastal ocean dynamic sea level change, there is ''low confidence'' in the details of ocean dynamic sea level change along the coast ( [[#9.2.3.6|Section 9.2.3.6]] ) and in semi-enclosed basins, such as the Mediterranean, where coarse models can misrepresent key dynamic processes. Regional high-resolution models can improve projections of coastal ocean dynamic sea level change ( [[IPCC:Wg1:Chapter:Chapter-12#12.4|Section 12.4]] ; [[#Hermans--2020|Hermans et al., 2020]] ), but have not been implemented at a global scale.

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'''Figure 9.26''' '''|''' '''Median global mean and regional relative sea level projections (m) by contribution for the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Upper time series:''' Global mean contributions to sea level change as a function of time, relative to 1995–2014. '''Lower maps:''' Regional projections of the sea level contributions in 2100 relative to 1995–2014 for SSP5-8.5 and SSP1-2.6. Vertical land motion is common to both Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Further details on data sources and processing are available in the chapter data table (Table 9.SM.9).

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