Editing IPCC:AR6/SROCC/Chapter-3 (section)

===== 3.4.3.3.1 Food and water security =====

Impacts of climate change on food and water security in the Arctic can be severe in regions where infrastructure (including ice roads), travel and subsistence practices are reliant on elements of the cryosphere such as snow cover, permafrost and freshwater or sea ice (Cochran et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1828|1828]]</sup> ; Inuit Circumpolar Council-Alaska (ICC-AK), 2015).

There is ''high confidence'' in indicators that food insecurity risks are on the rise for Indigenous Arctic peoples. Food is strongly tied to culture, identity, values and ways of life (Donaldson et al., 2010 <sup>[[#fn:r1829|1829]]</sup> ; Cunsolo Willox et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1830|1830]]</sup> ; Inuit Circumpolar Council-Alaska (ICC-AK), 2015); thus, impacts to food security go beyond access to food and physical health. Food systems in northern communities are intertwined with northern ecosystems because of subsistence hunting, fishing and gathering activities. Environmental changes to animal habitat, population sizes and movement mean that culturally important food species may no longer be found within accessible ranges or familiar areas (Parlee and Furgal, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1831|1831]]</sup> ; Rautio et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1832|1832]]</sup> ; Inuit Circumpolar Council-Alaska (ICC-AK), 2015; Lavrillier et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1833|1833]]</sup> ) (Section 3.4.3.2.2). This impacts negatively the accessibility of culturally important local food sources (Lavrillier, 2013; Rosol et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1834|1834]]</sup> ) that make important contributions to a nutritious diet (Donaldson et al., 2010 <sup>[[#fn:r1835|1835]]</sup> ; Hansen et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1836|1836]]</sup> ; Dudley et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1837|1837]]</sup> ). Longer open water seasons and poorer ice conditions on lakes impact fishing options (Laidler, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1838|1838]]</sup> ) and waterfowl hunting (Goldhar et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1839|1839]]</sup> ). Permafrost warming and increases in active layer thickness (Section 3.4.1.3) reduce the reliability of permafrost for natural refrigeration. In some cases these changes have reduced access to, and consumption of, locally resourced food and can result in increased incidence of illness (Laidler, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1840|1840]]</sup> ; Cochran et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1841|1841]]</sup> ; Cozzetto et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1842|1842]]</sup> ; Rautio et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1843|1843]]</sup> ; Beaumier et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1844|1844]]</sup> ). These consequences of climate change are intertwined with processes of globalisation, whereby complex social, economic and cultural factors are contributing to a dietary transformation from locally resourced foods to imported market foods across the Arctic (Harder and Wenzel, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1845|1845]]</sup> ; Parlee and Furgal, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1846|1846]]</sup> ; Nymand and Fondahl, 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1847|1847]]</sup> ; Beaumier et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1848|1848]]</sup> ). Limiting exposures to zoonotic, foodborne and waterborne pathogens (Section 3.4.3.2.2) depends on accurate and comprehensive data on species diversity, biology and distribution and pathways for invasion (Hoberg and Brooks, 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1849|1849]]</sup> ; Kafle et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1850|1850]]</sup> ).

There is ''high confidence'' that changes to travel conditions impact food security through access to hunting grounds. Shorter snow cover duration (Section 3.4.1.1), and changes to snow conditions (such as density) make travel more difficult and dangerous (Laidler, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1851|1851]]</sup> ; Ford et al., 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r1852|1852]]</sup> ). Changes in dominant wind direction and speed reduce the reliability of traditional navigational indicators such as snow drifts, increasing safety concerns (Ford and Pearce, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1853|1853]]</sup> ; Laidler, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1854|1854]]</sup> ; Ford et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1855|1855]]</sup> ; Clark et al., 2016b <sup>[[#fn:r1856|1856]]</sup> ). Permafrost warming, increased active layer thickness and landscape instability (Section 3.4.1.3), fire disturbance and changes to water levels (Section 3.4.1.2) impact overland navigability in summer (Goldhar et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1857|1857]]</sup> ; Brinkman et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1858|1858]]</sup> ; Dodd et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1859|1859]]</sup> ).

There is ''high confidence'' that both risks and opportunities arise for coastal communities with changing sea ice and open water conditions. Of particular concern for coastal communities is landfast sea ice (Section 3.3.1.1.5), which creates an extension of the land in winter that facilitates travel (Inuit Circumpolar Council Canada, 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1860|1860]]</sup> ). The floe edge position, timing and dynamics of freeze-up and break-up, sea ice stability through the winter, and length of the summer open water season are important indicators of changing ice conditions and safe travel (Gearheard et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1861|1861]]</sup> ; Eicken et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1862|1862]]</sup> ; Baztan et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1863|1863]]</sup> ). Warming water temperature, altered salinity profiles, snow properties, changing currents and winds all have consequences for the use of sea ice as a travel or hunting platform (Hansen et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1864|1864]]</sup> ; Eicken et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1865|1865]]</sup> ; Clark et al., 2016a <sup>[[#fn:r1866|1866]]</sup> ). More leads (areas of open water), especially in the spring, can mean more hunting opportunities such as whaling off the coast of Alaska (Hansen et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1867|1867]]</sup> ; Eicken et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1868|1868]]</sup> ). In Nunavut, a floe edge closer to shore improves access to marine mammals such as seals or narwhal (Ford et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1869|1869]]</sup> ). However, these conditions also hamper access to coastal or inland hunting grounds (Hansen et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1870|1870]]</sup> ; Durkalec et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1871|1871]]</sup> ), have increased potential for break-off events at the floe edge (Ford et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1872|1872]]</sup> ), or can result in decreased presence (or total absence) of ice-associated marine mammals with an absence of summer sea ice (Eicken et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1873|1873]]</sup> ).

Many northern communities rely on ponds, streams and lakes for drinking water (Cochran et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1874|1874]]</sup> ; Goldhar et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1875|1875]]</sup> ; Nymand and Fondahl, 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1876|1876]]</sup> ; Daley et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1877|1877]]</sup> ; Dudley et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1878|1878]]</sup> ; Masina et al., 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r1879|1879]]</sup> ), so there is ''high confidence'' that projected changes in hydrology will impact water supply (Section 3.4.2.2). Surface water is vulnerable to thermokarst disturbance and drainage, as well as bacterial contamination, the risks of which are increased by warming ground and water temperatures (Cozzetto et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1880|1880]]</sup> ; Goldhar et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1881|1881]]</sup> ; Dudley et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1882|1882]]</sup> ; Masina et al., 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r1883|1883]]</sup> ). Icebergs or old multi-year ice are important sources of drinking water for some coastal communities, so reduced accessibility to stable sea ice conditions affects local water security. Small remote communities have limited capacity to respond quickly to water supply threats, which amplifies vulnerabilities to water security (Daley et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1884|1884]]</sup> ).

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