Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-3 (section)

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<div id="footnote-019" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-019-backlink|1]] Immediate action in modelled global pathways refers to the adoption between 2020 and at latest before 2025 of climate policies intended to limit global warming to a given level. Modelled pathways that limit warming to 2°C (&gt;67%) based on immediate action are summarised in category C3a in Table SPM.2. All assessed modelled global pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C (&gt;50%) with no or limited overshoot assume immediate action as defined here (Category C1 in Table SPM.2).

<div id="footnote-018" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-018-backlink|2]] NDCs announced prior to COP26 refer to the most recent nationally determined contributions submitted to the UNFCCC up to the literature cut-off date of this report, 11 October 2021, and revised NDCs announced by China, Japan and the Republic of Korea prior to October 2021 but only submitted thereafter.

<div id="footnote-017" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-017-backlink|3]] Numbers in parenthesis represent the interquartile range of the scenario samples.

<div id="footnote-016" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-016-backlink|4]] Available at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5886911 . All figures and tables in this chapter source data from the AR6 Scenarios Database, unless otherwise stated.

<div id="footnote-015" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-015-backlink|5]] A small fraction of pathways in the AR6 scenarios database that limit warming to 2°C (7% for C3 and 14% for C4) do not reach net zero CO 2 emissions during the 21st century. This is not inconsistent with the fundamental scientific requirement to reach net zero CO 2 emissions for a stable climate, but reflects that in some pathways, concurrent reductions in non-CO 2 emissions temporarily compensate for ongoing warming from CO 2 emissions. These would have to reach net zero CO 2 emissions eventually after 2100 to maintain these warming limits. For the two classes of pathways, the 95th percentile cannot be deduced from the scenario database as more than 5% of them do not reach net zero CO 2 by 2100.

<div id="footnote-014" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-014-backlink|6]] The AR6 WGI [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-5#5.5|Section 5.5]] estimates a variation of the remaining carbon budget by ±220 GtCO 2 due to variations of the non-CO 2 warming contribution in 1.5°C–2°C pathways. This translates to a shift of the timing of net zero CO 2 by about ±10 years, assuming global CO 2 emissions decrease linearly from current levels of around 40 GtCO 2 to net zero.

<div id="footnote-013" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-013-backlink|7]] Pathways following emissions levels of NDCs announced prior to COP26to 2030 and then returning warming to 1.5°C (&gt;50%) after high overshoot by 2100 reach net zero during 2055–2060 (2045–2070) (median five-year interval and 5–95th percentile range).

<div id="footnote-012" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-012-backlink|8]] Pathways that follow emission levels projected from the implementation of NDCs announced prior to COP26 until 2030 and that still limit warming to 2°C (&gt;67%) reach net zero CO 2 emissions during 2065–2070 (2055–2090) compared with 2070–2075 (2055–…) in cost-effective pathways acting immediately to ''likely'' limit warming to 2°C (median five-year interval and 5–95th percentile range). See Footnote 5 for the lack of 95th percentile ( [[#3.3|Section 3.3]] and Table 3.2).

<div id="footnote-011" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-011-backlink|9]] Defining net zero GHG emissions for a basket of greenhouse gases (GHGs) relies on a metric to convert GHG emissions including methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), fluorinated gases (F-gases), and potentially other gases, to CO 2 -equivalent emissions. The choice of metric ranges from global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTP) to economically oriented metrics. All metrics have advantages and disadvantages depending on the context in which they are used (Cross-Chapter Box 2 in Chapter 2).

<div id="footnote-010" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-010-backlink|10]] The 95th percentile cannot be deduced from the scenario database as more than 5% of pathways do not reach net zero GHG by 2100 ( [[#3.3|Section 3.3]] and Table 3.2.), hence denoted by -….

<div id="footnote-009" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-009-backlink|11]] The countries and areas classification in this figure deviate from the standard classification scheme adopted by AR6 WGIII as set out in Annex II.I.1.

<div id="footnote-008" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-008-backlink|12]] Unless otherwise specified, the values in parentheses in [[#3.4|Section 3.4]] from this point forward indicate the 5–95th percentile range.

<div id="footnote-007" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-007-backlink|13]] 2019 values are from model results and interpolated from other years when not directly reported.

<div id="footnote-006" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-006-backlink|14]] 2019 values are from model results and interpolated from other years when not directly reported.

<div id="footnote-005" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-005-backlink|15]] Some of these models are treated as global transport energy sectoral models (GTEMs) in Chapter 10.

<div id="footnote-004" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-004-backlink|16]] 2019 values are from model results and interpolated from other years when not directly reported.

<div id="footnote-003" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-003-backlink|17]] Some studies calculate emissions reductions in 2050 compared to 2014, while others note emissions reductions in 2060 relative to 2018.

<div id="footnote-002" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-002-backlink|18]] Original NDCs refer to those submitted to the UNFCCC in 2015 and 2016. See Section 4.2.

<div id="footnote-001" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-001-backlink|19]] In this section, the emissions range associated with NDCs announced prior to COP26 (or original NDCs) refer to the combined emissions ranges from the two cases of implementing only the unconditional elements of NDCs announced prior to COP26 (50–57 GtCO 2 -eq) and implementing both unconditional and conditional elements of NDCs announced prior to COP26 (47–55 GtCO 2 -eq), if not specified otherwise.

<div id="footnote-000" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-000-backlink|20]] The intended design of mitigation pathways in the literature can be deduced from underlying publications and study protocols. This information was collected as part of this assessment to establish a categorisation of policy assumptions underpinning the mitigation pathways collected in the AR6 scenario database ( [[#3.2|Section 3.2]] and Annex III.II.3.2.2).