Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-3 (section)

=== 3.5.4 Reducing Hotspots of Change for 1.5°C and 2°C of Global Warming ===

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This subsection integrates Sections 3.3 and 3.4 in terms of climate-change-induced hotspots that occur through interactions across the physical climate system, ecosystems and socio-economic human systems, with a focus on the extent to which risks can be avoided or reduced by achieving the 1.5°C global warming goal (as opposed to the 2°C goal). Findings are summarized in Table 3.6.

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<span id="arctic-sea-ice"></span>
==== 3.5.4.1 Arctic sea ice ====

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Ice-free Arctic Ocean summers are ''very likely'' at levels of global warming higher than 2°C (Notz and Stroeve, 2016; Rosenblum and Eisenman, 2016; Screen and Williamson, 2017; Niederdrenk and Notz, 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1169|1169]]</sup> . Some studies even indicate that the entire Arctic Ocean summer period will become ice free under 2°C of global warming, whilst others more conservatively estimate this probability to be in the order of 50% (Section 3.3.8; Sanderson et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r1170|1170]]</sup> . The probability of an ice-free Arctic in September at 1.5°C of global warming is low and substantially lower than for the case of 2°C of global warming ( ''high confidence'' ) (Section 3.3.8; Screen and Williamson, 2017; Jahn, 2018; Niederdrenk and Notz, 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1171|1171]]</sup> . There is, however, a single study that questions the validity of the 1.5°C threshold in terms of maintaining summer Arctic Ocean sea ice (Niederdrenk and Notz, 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1172|1172]]</sup> . In contrast to summer, little ice is projected to be lost during winter for either 1.5°C or 2°C of global warming ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Niederdrenk and Notz, 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1173|1173]]</sup> . The losses in sea ice at 1.5°C and 2°C of warming will result in habitat losses for organisms such as seals, polar bears, whales and sea birds (e.g., Larsen et al., 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r1174|1174]]</sup> . There is ''high agreement'' and ''robust evidence'' that photosynthetic species will change because of sea ice retreat and related changes in temperature and radiation (Section 3.4.4.7), and this is ''very likely'' to benefit fisheries productivity in the Northern Hemisphere spring bloom system (Section 3.4.4.7).

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==== 3.5.4.2 Arctic land regions ====

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In some Arctic land regions, the warming of cold extremes and the increase in annual minimum temperature at 1.5°C are stronger than the global mean temperature increase by a factor of two to three, meaning 3°C–4.5°C of regional warming at 1.5°C of global warming (e.g., northern Europe in Supplementary Material 3.SM, Figure 3.SM.5 see also Section 3.3.2.2 and Seneviratne et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r1175|1175]]</sup> . Moreover, over much of the Arctic, a further increase of 0.5°C in the global surface temperature, from 1.5°C to 2°C, may lead to further temperature increases of 2°C–2.5°C (Figure 3.3). As a consequence, biome (major ecosystem type) shifts are ''likely'' in the Arctic, with increases in fire frequency, degradation of permafrost, and tree cover ''likely'' to occur at 1.5°C of warming and further amplification of these changes expected under 2°C of global warming (e.g., Gerten et al., 2013; Bring et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r1176|1176]]</sup> . Rising temperatures, thawing permafrost and changing weather patterns are projected to increasingly impact people, infrastructure and industries in the Arctic (W.N. Meier et al., 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r1177|1177]]</sup> with these impacts larger at 2°C than at 1.5°C of warming ( ''medium confidence'' ).

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==== 3.5.4.3 Alpine regions ====

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Alpine regions are generally regarded as climate change hotspots given that rich biodiversity has evolved in their cold and harsh climate, but with many species consequently being vulnerable to increases in temperature. Under regional warming, alpine species have been found to migrate upwards on mountain slopes (Reasoner and Tinner, 2009) <sup>[[#fn:r1178|1178]]</sup> , an adaptation response that is obviously limited by mountain height and habitability. Moreover, many of the world’s alpine regions are important from a water security perspective through associated glacier melt, snow melt and river flow (see Section 3.3.5.2 for a discussion of these aspects). Projected biome shifts are ''likely'' to be severe in alpine regions already at 1.5°C of warming and to increase further at 2°C (Gerten et al., 2013, Figure 1b <sup>[[#fn:r1179|1179]]</sup> ; B. Chen et al., 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r1180|1180]]</sup> .

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==== 3.5.4.4 Southeast Asia ====

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Southeast Asia is a region highly vulnerable to increased flooding in the context of sea level rise (Arnell et al., 2016; Brown et al., 2016, 2018a) <sup>[[#fn:r1181|1181]]</sup> . Risks from increased flooding are projected to rise from 1.5°C to 2°C of warming ( ''medium confidence'' ), with substantial increases projected beyond 2°C (Arnell et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r1182|1182]]</sup> . Southeast Asia displays statistically significant differences in projected changes in heavy precipitation, runoff and high flows at 1.5°C versus 2°C of warming, with stronger increases occurring at 2°C (Section 3.3.3; Wartenburger et al., 2017; Döll et al., 2018; Seneviratne et al., 2018c) <sup>[[#fn:r1183|1183]]</sup> ; thus, this region is considered a hotspot in terms of increases in heavy precipitation between these two global temperature levels ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Schleussner et al., 2016b; Seneviratne et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r1184|1184]]</sup> . For Southeast Asia, 2°C of warming by 2040 could lead to a decline by one-third in per capita crop production associated with general decreases in crop yields (Nelson et al., 2010) <sup>[[#fn:r1185|1185]]</sup> . However, under 1.5°C of warming, significant risks for crop yield reduction in the region are avoided (Schleussner et al., 2016b) <sup>[[#fn:r1186|1186]]</sup> . These changes pose significant risks for poor people in both rural regions and urban areas of Southeast Asia (Section 3.4.10.1), with these risks being larger at 2°C of global warming compared to 1.5°C ( ''medium confidence'' ).

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==== 3.5.4.5 Southern Europe and the Mediterranean ====

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The Mediterranean is regarded as a climate change hotspot, both in terms of projected stronger warming of the regional land-based hot extremes compared to the mean global temperature increase (e.g., Seneviratne et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r1187|1187]]</sup> and in terms of of robust increases in the probability of occurrence of extreme droughts at 2°C vs 1.5°C global warming (Section 3.3.4). Low river flows are projected to decrease in the Mediterranean under 1.5°C of global warming (Marx et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1188|1188]]</sup> , with associated significant decreases in high flows and floods (Thober et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1189|1189]]</sup> , largely in response to reduced precipitation. The median reduction in annual runoff is projected to almost double from about 9% ( ''likely'' range 4.5–15.5%) at 1.5°C to 17% ( ''likely'' range 8–25%) at 2°C (Schleussner et al., 2016b) <sup>[[#fn:r1190|1190]]</sup> . Similar results were found by Döll et al. (2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1191|1191]]</sup> . Overall, there is ''high confidence'' that strong increases in dryness and decreases in water availability in the Mediterranean and southern Europe would occur from 1.5°C to 2°C of global warming. Sea level rise is expected to be lower for 1.5°C versus 2°C, lowering risks for coastal metropolitan agglomerations. The risks (assuming current adaptation) related to water deficit in the Mediterranean are high for global warming of 2°C but could be substantially reduced if global warming were limited to 1.5°C (Section 3.3.4; Guiot and Cramer, 2016; Schleussner et al., 2016b; Donnelly et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r1192|1192]]</sup> .

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==== 3.5.4.6 West Africa and the Sahel ====

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West Africa and the Sahel are ''likely'' to experience increases in the number of hot nights and longer and more frequent heatwaves even if the global temperature increase is constrained to 1.5°C, with further increases expected at 2°C of global warming and beyond (e.g., Weber et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1193|1193]]</sup> . Moreover, daily rainfall intensity and runoff is expected to increase ( ''low confidence'' ) towards 2°C and higher levels of global warming (Schleussner et al., 2016b; Weber et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1194|1194]]</sup> , with these changes also being relatively large compared to the projected changes at 1.5°C of warming. Moreover, increased risks are projected in terms of drought, particularly for the pre-monsoon season (Sylla et al., 2015) <sup>[[#fn:r1195|1195]]</sup> , with both rural and urban populations affected, and more so at 2°C of global warming as opposed to 1.5°C (Liu et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1196|1196]]</sup> . Based on a World Bank (2013) <sup>[[#fn:r1197|1197]]</sup> study for sub-Saharan Africa, a 1.5°C warming by 2030 might reduce the present maize cropping areas by 40%, rendering these areas no longer suitable for current cultivars. Substantial negative impacts are also projected for sorghum suitability in the western Sahel (Läderach et al., 2013; Sultan and Gaetani, 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r1198|1198]]</sup> . An increase in warming to 2°C by 2040 would result in further yield losses and damages to crops (i.e., maize, sorghum, wheat, millet, groundnut and cassava). Schleussner et al. (2016b) <sup>[[#fn:r1199|1199]]</sup> found consistently reduced impacts on crop yield for West Africa under 2°C compared to 1.5°C of global warming. There is ''medium confidence'' that vulnerabilities to water and food security in the African Sahel will be higher at 2°C compared to 1.5°C of global warming (Cheung et al., 2016a; Betts et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1200|1200]]</sup> , and at 2°C these vulnerabilities are expected to be worse ( ''high evidence'' ) (Sultan and Gaetani, 2016; Lehner et al., 2017; Betts et al., 2018; Byers et al., 2018; Rosenzweig et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1201|1201]]</sup> ''.'' Under global warming of more than 2°C, the western Sahel might experience the strongest drying and experience serious food security issues (Ahmed et al., 2015; Parkes et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1202|1202]]</sup> .

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==== 3.5.4.7 Southern Africa ====

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The southern African region is projected to be a climate change hotspot in terms of both hot extremes (Figures 3.5 and 3.6) and drying (Figure 3.12). Indeed, temperatures have been rising in the subtropical regions of southern Africa at approximately twice the global rate over the last five decades (Engelbrecht et al., 2015) <sup>[[#fn:r1203|1203]]</sup> . Associated elevated warming of the regional land-based hot extremes has occurred (Section 3.3; Seneviratne et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r1204|1204]]</sup> . Increases in the number of hot nights, as well as longer and more frequent heatwaves, are projected even if the global temperature increase is constrained to 1.5°C ( ''high confidence'' ), with further increases expected at 2°C of global warming and beyond ( ''high confidence'' ) (Weber et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1205|1205]]</sup> .

Moreover, southern Africa is ''likely'' to generally become drier with reduced water availability under low mitigation (Niang et al., 2014; Engelbrecht et al., 2015; Karl et al., 2015; James et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r1206|1206]]</sup> , with this particular risk being prominent under 2°C of global warming and even under 1.5°C (Gerten et al., 2013) <sup>[[#fn:r1207|1207]]</sup> . Risks are significantly reduced, however, under 1.5°C of global warming compared to under higher levels (Schleussner et al., 2016b) <sup>[[#fn:r1208|1208]]</sup> . There are consistent and statistically significant increases in projected risks of increased meteorological drought in southern Africa at 2°C versus 1.5°C of warming ( ''medium confidence'' ). Despite the general rainfall reductions projected for southern Africa, daily rainfall intensities are expected to increase over much of the region ( ''medium confidence'' ), and increasingly so with higher levels of global warming. There is ''medium confidence'' that livestock in southern Africa will experience increased water stress under both 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming, with negative economic consequences (e.g., Boone et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1209|1209]]</sup> . The region is also projected to experience reduced maize, sorghum and cocoa cropping area suitability, as well as yield losses under 1.5°C of warming, with further decreases occurring towards 2°C of warming (World Bank, 2013) <sup>[[#fn:r1210|1210]]</sup> . Generally, there is ''high confidence'' that vulnerability to decreases in water and food availability is reduced at 1.5°C versus 2°C for southern Africa (Betts et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1211|1211]]</sup> , whilst at 2°C these are expected to be higher ( ''high confidence'' ) (Lehner et al., 2017; Betts et al., 2018; Byers et al., 2018; Rosenzweig et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1212|1212]]</sup> .

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==== 3.5.4.8 Tropics ====

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Worldwide, the largest increases in the number of hot days are projected to occur in the tropics (Figure 3.7). Moreover, the largest differences in the number of hot days for 1.5°C versus 2°C of global warming are projected to occur in the tropics (Mahlstein et al., 2011) <sup>[[#fn:r1213|1213]]</sup> . In tropical Africa, increases in the number of hot nights, as well as longer and more frequent heatwaves, are projected under 1.5°C of global warming, with further increases expected under 2°C of global warming (Weber et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1214|1214]]</sup> . Impact studies for major tropical cereals reveal that yields of maize and wheat begin to decline with 1°C to 2°C of local warming in the tropics. Schleussner et al. (2016b) <sup>[[#fn:r1215|1215]]</sup> project that constraining warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C would avoid significant risks of tropical crop yield declines in West Africa, Southeast Asia, and Central and South America. There is ''limited evidence'' and thus ''low confidence'' that these changes may result in significant population displacement from the tropics to the subtropics (e.g., Hsiang and Sobel, 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r1216|1216]]</sup> .

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==== 3.5.4.9 Small islands ====

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It is widely recognized that small islands are very sensitive to climate change impacts such as sea level rise, oceanic warming, heavy precipitation, cyclones and coral bleaching ( ''high confidence'' ) (Nurse et al., 2014; Ourbak and Magnan, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r1217|1217]]</sup> ''.'' Even at 1.5°C of global warming, the compounding impacts of changes in rainfall, temperature, tropical cyclones and sea level are ''likely'' to be significant across multiple natural and human systems. There are potential benefits to small island developing states (SIDS) from avoided risks at 1.5°C versus 2°C, especially when coupled with adaptation efforts. In terms of sea level rise, by 2150, roughly 60,000 fewer people living in SIDS will be exposed in a 1.5°C world than in a 2°C world (Rasmussen et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1218|1218]]</sup> . Constraining global warming to 1.5°C may significantly reduce water stress (by about 25%) compared to the projected water stress at 2°C, for example in the Caribbean region (Karnauskas et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1219|1219]]</sup> , and may enhance the ability of SIDS to adapt (Benjamin and Thomas, 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r1220|1220]]</sup> . Up to 50% of the year is projected to be very warm in the Caribbean at 1.5°C, with a further increase by up to 70 days at 2°C versus 1.5°C (Taylor et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1221|1221]]</sup> . By limiting warming to 1.5°C instead of 2°C in 2050, risks of coastal flooding (measured as the flood amplification factors for 100-year flood events) are reduced by 20–80% for SIDS (Rasmussen et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1222|1222]]</sup> . A case study of Jamaica with lessons for other Caribbean SIDS demonstrated that the difference between 1.5°C and 2°C is ''likely'' to challenge livestock thermoregulation, resulting in persistent heat stress for livestock (Lallo et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1223|1223]]</sup> .

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==== 3.5.4.10 Fynbos and shrub biomes ====

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The Fynbos and succulent Karoo biomes of South Africa are threatened systems that were assessed in AR5. Similar shrublands exist in the semi-arid regions of other continents, with the Sonora-Mojave creosotebush-white bursage desert scrub ecosystem in the USA being a prime example. Impacts accrue across these systems with greater warming, with impacts at 2°C ''likely'' to be greater than those at 1.5°C ( ''medium confidence'' ). Under 2°C of global warming, regional warming in drylands is projected to be 3.2°C–4°C, and under 1.5°C of global warming, mean warming in drylands is projected to still be about 3°C. The Fynbos biome in southwestern South Africa is vulnerable to the increasing impact of fires under increasing temperatures and drier winters ( ''high confidence'' ). The Fynbos biome is projected to lose about 20%, 45% and 80% of its current suitable climate area relative to its present-day area under 1°C, 2°C and 3°C of warming, respectively (Engelbrecht and Engelbrecht, 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r1224|1224]]</sup> , demonstrating the value of climate change mitigation in protecting this rich centre of biodiversity.

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<!-- START TABLE -->
'''Table 3.6'''

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'''Emergence and intensity of climate change hotspots under different degrees of global warming.'''

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{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Region and/or Phenomenon
! Warming of 1.5°C or less
! Warming of 1.5°C–2°C
! Warming of 2°C–3°C
|-
| Arctic sea ice
| Arctic summer sea ice is ''likely'' to be maintained
Habitat losses for organisms such as polar bears,<br />
whales, seals and sea birds

Benefits for Arctic fisheries

| The risk of an ice-free Arctic in summer is about 50% or higher
Habitat losses for organisms such as polar bears, whales,seals and sea birds may be critical if summers are ice free

Benefits for Arctic fisheries

| The Arctic is ''very likely'' to be ice free in summer
Critical habitat losses for organisms such as polar bears, whales, seals and sea birds

Benefits for Arctic fisheries

|-
| Arctic land regions
| Cold extremes warm by a factor of 2–3, reaching up to 4.5°C ( ''high confidence'' )
Biome shifts in the tundra and permafrost deterioration are ''likely''

| Cold extremes warm by as much as 8°C ( ''high confidence'' )
Larger intrusions of trees and shrubs in the tundra than under 1.5°C of warming are ''likely'' ; larger but constrained losses in permafrost are ''likely''

| Drastic regional warming is ''very likely''
A collapse in permafrost may occur ( ''low confidence'' ); a drastic biome shift from tundra to boreal forest is possible ( ''low confidence'' )

|-
| Alpine regions
| Severe shifts in biomes are ''likely''
| Even more severe shifts are ''likely''
| Critical losses in alpine habitats are ''likely''
|-
| Southeast Asia
| Risks for increased flooding related to sea level rise
Increases in heavy precipitation events

Significant risks of crop yield reductions are avoided

| Higher risks of increased flooding related to sea level rise ( ''medium confidence'' )
Stronger increases in heavy precipitation events ( ''medium confidence'' )

One-third decline in per capita crop production ( ''medium confidence'' )

| Substantial increases in risks related to flooding from sea level rise
Substantial increase in heavy precipitation and high-flow events

Substantial reductions in crop yield

|-
| Mediterranean
| Increase in probability of extreme drought ( ''medium confidence'' )
''Medium confidence'' in reduction in runoff of about 9% ( ''likely'' range 4.5–15.5%)

Risk of water deficit ( ''medium confidence'' )

| Robust increase in probability of extreme drought ( ''medium confidence'' )
''Medium confidence'' in further reductions (about 17%) in runoff ( ''likely'' range 8–28%)

Higher risks of water deficit ( ''medium confidence'' )

| Robust and large increases in extreme drought. Substantial reductions in precipitation and in runoff ( ''medium confidence'' )
Very high risks of water deficit ( ''medium confidence'' )

|-
| West Africa and the Sahel
| Increases in the number of hot nights and longer and more frequent heatwaves are ''likely''
Reduced maize and sorghum production is ''likely'' , with area suitable for maize production reduced by as much as 40%

Increased risks of undernutrition

| Further increases in number of hot nights and longer and more frequent heatwaves are ''likely''
Negative impacts on maize and sorghum production ''likely'' larger than at 1.5°C; ''medium confidence'' that vulnerabilities to food security in the African Sahel will be higher at 2°C compared to 1.5°C

Higher risks of undernutrition

| Substantial increases in the number of hot nights and heatwave duration and frequency ( ''very likely'' )
Negative impacts on crop yield may result in major regional food insecurities ( ''medium confidence'' )

High risks of undernutrition

|-
| Southern Africa
| Reductions in water availability ( ''medium confidence'' )
Increases in number of hot nights and longer and more frequent heatwaves ( ''high confidence'' )

High risks of increased mortality from heatwaves

High risk of undernutrition in communities dependent on dryland agriculture and livestock

| Larger reductions in rainfall and water availability ( ''medium confidence'' )
Further increases in number of hot nights and longer and more frequent heatwaves ( ''high confidence'' ), associated increases in risks of increased mortality from heatwaves compared to 1.5°C warming ( ''high confidence'' )

Higher risks of undernutrition in communities dependent on dryland agriculture and livestock

| Large reductions in rainfall and water availability ( ''medium confidence'' )
Drastic increases in the number of hot nights, hot days and heatwave duration and frequency to impact substantially on agriculture, livestock and human health and mortality ( ''high confidence'' )

Very high risks of undernutrition in communities dependent on dryland agriculture and livestock

|-
| Tropics
| Increases in the number of hot days and hot nights as well as longer and more frequent heatwaves ( ''high confidence'' )
Risks to tropical crop yields in West Africa, Southeast Asia and Central and South America are significantly less than under 2°C of warming

| The largest increase in hot days under 2°C compared to 1.5°C is projected for the tropics.
Risks to tropical crop yields in West Africa, Southeast Asia and Central and South America could be extensive

| Oppressive temperatures and accumulated heatwave duration ''very likely'' to directly impact human health, mortality and productivity
Substantial reductions in crop yield ''very likely''

|-
| Small islands
| Land of 60,000 less people exposed by 2150 on SIDS compared to impacts under 2°C of global warming
Risks for coastal flooding reduced by 20–80% for SIDS compared to 2°C of global warming

Freshwater stress reduced by 25%

Increase in the number of warm days for SIDS in the tropics

Persistent heat stress in cattle avoided

Loss of 70–90% of coral reefs

| Tens of thousands of people displaced owing to<br />
inundation of SIDSHigh risks for coastal floodingFreshwater stress reduced by 25% compared to<br />
2°C of global warming
<br/><br/>
Freshwater stress from projected aridity

Further increase of about 70 warm days per year

Persistent heat stress in cattle in SIDS

Loss of most coral reefs and weaker remaining structures owing to ocean acidification

| Substantial and widespread impacts through inundation of SIDS, coastal flooding, freshwater stress, persistent heat stress and loss of most coral reefs ( ''very likely'' )
|-
| Fynbos biome
| About 30% of suitable climate area lost<br />
( ''medium confidence'' )
| Increased losses (about 45%) of suitable climate area ( ''medium confidence'' )
| Up to 80% of suitable climate area lost<br />
( ''medium confidence'' )
|}
<!-- END TABLE -->

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