Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-Atlas (section)

===== Atlas.7.1.1.2 Findings From Previous IPCC Assessments =====

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According to AR5 ( [[#Christensen--2013|Christensen et al., 2013]] ), significant positive trends of temperature have been observed in Central America ( ''high confidence'' ), while significant precipitation trends are regionally dependent, especially during the summer. In addition, changes in climate variability and in extreme events have severely affected the region ( ''medium confidence'' ). A decrease in mean precipitation is projected in SCA and NCA. El Niño and La Niña teleconnections are projected to move eastwards in the future ( ''medium confidence'' ), while changes in their effects on other regions, including Central America and the Caribbean is uncertain ( ''medium confidence'' ). There is ''medium confidence'' in projections showing an increase in seasonal mean precipitation on the equatorial flank of the ITCZ affecting parts of Central America and the Caribbean.

In relation to the 1986–2005 baseline period, temperatures are ''very likely'' to increase by the end of the century, even for the RCP2.6 scenario, with changes of more than 5°C in some regions for the RCP8.5 scenario. Precipitation change is projected to vary between +10% and –25% ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Christensen--2013|Christensen et al., 2013]] ). The SR1.5 ( [[#Hoegh-Guldberg--2018|Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018]] ) states there is a ''high agreement'' and ''robust evidence'' that at the 1.5°C global warming level the Caribbean region will experience a 0.5°C–1.5°C warming compared to the 1971–2000 baseline period, with greatest warming over larger land masses.

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