Editing IPCC:AR6/SRCCL/Chapter-5 (section)

==== 5.7.1.3 Health-related policies and cost savings ====

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The co-benefits arising from mitigating climate change through changing dietary patterns, and thus demand, have potentially important economic impacts ( ''high confidence'' ). The gross value added from agriculture to the global economy (GVA) was 1.9 trillion USD2013 (FAO 2015c <sup>[[#fn:r1249|1249]]</sup> ), from a global agriculture economy (GDP) of 2.7 trillion USD2016. In 2013, the FAO estimated an annual cost of 3.5 trillion USD for malnutrition (FAO 2013a <sup>[[#fn:r1250|1250]]</sup> ).

However, this is likely to be an underestimate of the economic health costs of current food systems for several reasons: (i) lack of data – for example there is little robust data in the UK on the prevalence of malnutrition in the general population (beyond estimates of obesity and surveys of malnourishment of patients in hospital and care homes, from which estimates over 3 million people in the UK are undernourished (BAPEN 2012); (ii) lack of robust methodology to determine, for example, the exact relationship between over-consumption of poor diets, obesity and non-communicable diseases like diabetes, cardiovascular disease, a range of cancers or Alzheimer’s disease (Pedditizi et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1251|1251]]</sup> ), and (iii) unequal healthcare spending around the world.

In the USA, the economic cost of diabetes, a disease strongly associated with obesity and affecting about 23 million Americans, is estimated at 327 billion USD2017 (American Diabetes Association 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1252|1252]]</sup> ), with direct healthcare costs of 9600 USD per person. By 2025, it is estimated that, globally, there will be over 700 million people with diabetes (NCD-RisC 2016b <sup>[[#fn:r1253|1253]]</sup> ), over 30 times the number in the USA. Even if a global average cost of diabetes per capita were a quarter of that in the USA, the total economic cost of diabetes would be approximately the same as global agricultural GDP. Finally, (iv) the role of agriculture in causing ill-health beyond dietary health, such as through degrading air quality (e.g., Paulot and Jacob 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1254|1254]]</sup> ).

Whilst data of the healthcare costs associated with the food system and diets are scattered and the proportion of costs directly attributable to diets and food consumption is uncertain, there is potential for more preventative healthcare systems to save significant costs that could incentivise agricultural business models to change what is grown, and how. The potential of moving towards more preventative healthcare is widely discussed in health economics literature, particularly in order to reduce the life-style-related (including dietary-related) disease component in aging populations (e.g., Bloom et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1255|1255]]</sup> ).

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