Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-Atlas (section)

==== Atlas.7.1.2 Assessment and Synthesis of Observations, Trends and Attribution ====

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Significant warming trends between 0.2°C and 0.3°C per decade have been observed in the three reference regions of Central America in the last 30 years (Planos Gutiérrez et al., 2012; P.D. [[#Jones--2016|Jones et al., 2016]] a; [[#Hidalgo--2017|Hidalgo et al., 2017]] ), with the largest increases in the North American Monsoon region ( ''high confidence'' ) (Figure Atlas.11 and the Interactive Atlas; [[#Cavazos--2020|Cavazos et al., 2020]] ). There is ''high confidence'' of increasing temperature over parts of NCA, reaching 0.5°C per decade in Mexico and southern Baja California, with a lower rate (0.2°C per decade) in the Yucatan Peninsula and the Guatemala Pacific coastal region ( [[#Cueto--2010|Cueto et al., 2010]] ; [[#García%20Cueto--2013|García Cueto et al., 2013]] ; [[#Martínez-Austria--2016|Martínez-Austria et al., 2016]] ; [[#Martínez-Austria--2017|Martínez-Austria and Bandala, 2017]] ; [[#Navarro-Estupiñan--2018|Navarro-Estupiñan et al., 2018]] ; [[#Cavazos--2020|Cavazos et al., 2020]] ) and CAR ( [[#McLean--2015|McLean et al., 2015]] ) over the last 30 to 40 years. Cooling trends have been detected in limited areas of Honduras and northern Panama ( [[#Hidalgo--2017|Hidalgo et al., 2017]] ).

Changes in mean precipitation rates are less consistent and long-term trends are generally weak. Different databases show significant differences depending mainly on the type and resolution of data ( [[#Centella-Artola--2020|Centella-Artola et al., 2020]] ). Small positive trends were observed in the total annual precipitation ( [[#Stephenson--2014|Stephenson et al., 2014]] ). In SCA and CAR, trends in annual precipitation are generally non-significant, with the exception of small significant positive trends for sub-regions or limited periods ( [[#Planos%20Gutiérrez--2012|Planos Gutiérrez et al., 2012]] ; [[#Hidalgo--2017|Hidalgo et al., 2017]] ), and the 1970–1999 trends in precipitation in SCA are generally non-significant (J.M. [[#Jones--2016|Jones et al., 2016]] ; [[#Hidalgo--2017|Hidalgo et al., 2017]] ). Positive trends in the duration of the MSD have been found in this region over the past four decades ( ''low confidence'' ) ( [[#Anderson--2019|Anderson et al., 2019]] ). For CAR see also [[#Atlas.10|Atlas.10]] Small Islands.

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