Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-13 (section)

=== 13.10.3 Consequences of Multiple Climate Risks for Europe ===

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European regions are affected by multiple KRs simultaneously. While there is a wide range in quantifications, there is ''high agreement'' that the consequences for socioeconomic and natural systems can be substantial, with more severe consequences in the south than in the north ( ''very high confidence'' ); and there is some indication also for a west-to-east gradient, with higher uncertainty in eastern WCE and EEU, which makes adaptation more challenging ( ''medium confidence'' ). Furthermore, the food–water–energy–land nexus plays an important role in amplifying overall risk levels in Europe ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Forzieri--2016|Forzieri et al., 2016]] ; [[#Harrison--2016|Harrison et al., 2016]] ; [[#Byers--2018|Byers et al., 2018]] ; [[#Arnell--2019|Arnell et al., 2019]] ; [[#Harrison--2019|Harrison et al., 2019]] ; [[#Kebede--2021|Kebede et al., 2021]] ). Southern Europe, European cities and coastal areas are projected to become hotspots of multiple risks ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Cramer--2018|Cramer et al., 2018]] ; [[#Forzieri--2018|Forzieri et al., 2018]] ; [[#Guerreiro--2018|Guerreiro et al., 2018]] ). The number of people exposed to multiple KRs in Europe are projected to at least double at 3°C GWL compared with 1.5°C GWL ( [[#Forzieri--2017|Forzieri et al., 2017]] ; [[#Byers--2018|Byers et al., 2018]] ; [[#Arnell--2019|Arnell et al., 2019]] ), but risk levels are already higher at 1.5°C GWL than today for a number of KRs ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Figure 13.28).

Economic losses and damages for European economies from multiple KRs are projected to increase ( ''high confidence'' ) (Figure 13.34; [[#Szewczyk--2018|Szewczyk et al., 2018]] ; [[#Feyen--2020|Feyen et al., 2020]] ; [[#Kalkuhl--2020|Kalkuhl and Wenz, 2020]] ) and potentially quadruple at 3°C GWL compared with 1.5°C GWL ( [[#Feyen--2020|Feyen et al., 2020]] ). Existing estimates of projected economic costs for Europe, based on integrated assessment or computable general equilibrium models, are, however, ''likely'' to be underestimations of the true costs because of incomplete coverage of biophysical impacts, in particular low-probability high-impact events, and disruptive risk propagation channels ( [[#Lamperti--2018|Lamperti et al., 2018]] ; [[#Stoerk--2018|Stoerk et al., 2018]] ; [[#Schewe--2019|Schewe et al., 2019]] ; [[#Piontek--2021|Piontek et al., 2021]] ). The main driver for this increase in economic losses and damages is mortality due to heat stress ( ''medium confidence'' ), followed by reduced labour productivity, coastal and inland flooding, water scarcity and drought ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Figure 13.33; [[#13.6.1.3|Section 13.6.1.3]] ). While losses are highest in SEU for both 1.5°C and 3°C GWL, and increase by a factor of more than 3 between these GWLs, the projected economic damages and losses also increase significantly in WCE (by a factor of 4 from 1.5°C to 3° C GWL; 40% of total losses in EU-28 at 3°C GWL) and in NEU (almost 10% of total losses at 3°C GWL) ( [[#Szewczyk--2018|Szewczyk et al., 2018]] ; [[#Szewczyk--2020|Szewczyk et al., 2020]] ). Adaptation is projected to reduce macroeconomic costs, but residual costs will remain particularly for warming above 3°C GWL ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#De%20Cian--2016|De Cian et al., 2016]] ; [[#Bosello--2018|Bosello et al., 2018]] ; [[#Parrado--2020|Parrado et al., 2020]] ).

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[[File:22dca21d3db9b991c2bbd7012b8b8b52 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_13_033.png]]

'''Figure 13.33 |''' '''Economic damages and gains due to projected climate risks are shown for 1''' '''.''' '''5°C and 3°C GWL relative to no additional warming; macroeconomic effects are measured in GDP or welfare.''' Effects for EEU are reported for Russia as a whole country, deviating from the definition of EEU in this chapter. Effects may deviate from sectoral assessments in Sections 13.2–13.7 due to different degrees of coverage of risk channels (Table SM13.23).

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