Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-3 (section)

==== 3.5.4.2 Arctic land regions ====

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In some Arctic land regions, the warming of cold extremes and the increase in annual minimum temperature at 1.5°C are stronger than the global mean temperature increase by a factor of two to three, meaning 3°C–4.5°C of regional warming at 1.5°C of global warming (e.g., northern Europe in Supplementary Material 3.SM, Figure 3.SM.5 see also Section 3.3.2.2 and Seneviratne et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r1175|1175]]</sup> . Moreover, over much of the Arctic, a further increase of 0.5°C in the global surface temperature, from 1.5°C to 2°C, may lead to further temperature increases of 2°C–2.5°C (Figure 3.3). As a consequence, biome (major ecosystem type) shifts are ''likely'' in the Arctic, with increases in fire frequency, degradation of permafrost, and tree cover ''likely'' to occur at 1.5°C of warming and further amplification of these changes expected under 2°C of global warming (e.g., Gerten et al., 2013; Bring et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r1176|1176]]</sup> . Rising temperatures, thawing permafrost and changing weather patterns are projected to increasingly impact people, infrastructure and industries in the Arctic (W.N. Meier et al., 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r1177|1177]]</sup> with these impacts larger at 2°C than at 1.5°C of warming ( ''medium confidence'' ).

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