Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-10 (section)

=== 10.5.6 Social Protection ===

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==== 10.5.6.1 Point of Departure ====

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Social protection (SP) encompasses initiatives that involve transfer income or assets to the poor, protect the vulnerable against risks to their livelihood, and enhance the social status and rights of the marginalised ( [[#Béné--2014|Béné et al., 2014]] ; [[#Kothari--2014|Kothari, 2014]] ). Social protection offers a wide range of instruments (e.g., cash transfers, insurance products, pension schemes and employment guarantee schemes) that can be used to support households that are exposed to climate changes ( [[#Bank--2015|Bank, 2015]] ). It also presents an opportunity to develop inclusive comprehensive risk management strategies to address L&amp;D from climate change as well as a means to CCA ( [[#Aleksandrova--2019|Aleksandrova, 2019]] ).

Social protection programmes assist individuals and families, especially the poor and vulnerable, cope with crises and shocks, finds jobs, improve productivity, invest in the health and education of their children, and protect the ageing population ( [[#Bank--2018b|Bank, 2018b]] ). Social protection that is well designed and implemented in a more long-term approach can enhance human capital and productivity, reduce inequalities, build resilience and empowerment, and end the inter-generational cycle of poverty ( ''medium evidence, medium agreement'' ) as indicated from various experiences in the region such as (a) cash transfer programmes in Indonesia ( [[#Kwon--2015|Kwon and Kim, 2015]] ), (b) the Benazir Income Support Programme in Pakistan ( [[#Watson--2017|Watson et al., 2017]] ), (c) the Chars Livelihoods Programme in Bangladesh ( [[#Pritchard--2015|Pritchard et al., 2015]] ) and (d) Minsei-in designated volunteer social workers in Japan ( [[#Boeckmann--2016|Boeckmann, 2016]] ). A key consideration in strengthening resilience through SP programmes is to design with climate and disaster risk considerations in mind and implement in close synergy with existing programmes, such as on sustainable livelihoods, EWS and financial inclusion ( [[#Coirolo--2013|Coirolo et al., 2013]] ; [[#Bank--2018a|Bank, 2018a]] ).

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==== 10.5.6.2 Findings ====

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Asia is already the most disaster-prone region in the world, with over 200,000 lives lost and almost 1 billion people affected by storms and floods alone between 2005 and 2014, while a heatwave in North and Central Asia in 2010 killed 56,000 people ( [[#United%20Nations--2015|United Nations, 2015]] ). Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of these sudden and slow-onset disasters, among them, hydrological changes in major river basins where 1.5 billion people live (such as the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Mekong, Yellow, Yangtze, Tarim, Amu and Syr Darya rivers) ( [[#Bank--2017a|Bank, 2017a]] ). According to the latest estimates of the International Labour Organisation (ILO), 55% of the global population (around 4 billion people) remain without any SP benefits, and the SP coverage gap is highest in Africa (82.2%) and the Asia–Pacific (61%) ( [[#ILO--2017b|ILO, 2017b]] ).

Risks are generally amplified for people without SP or essential infrastructure and services, and for people with limited access to land and quality housing, especially those in exposed areas and informal settlements without secure tenure ( [[#ESCAP--2017|ESCAP, 2017]] ). Stateless people are disproportionately affected by climate change and disasters as they tend to reside in hazard-prone areas and their statues as non-citizens often limits access to assistance ( [[#Connell--2015|Connell, 2015]] ). The three main types of SP are: (a) social safety nets (also known as social assistance), which include conditional and unconditional cash transfers, public work programmes, subsidies and food stamps; (b) social insurance, which consists of contributory pensions and contributory health insurance; and (c) labour market measures, which include instruments such as unemployment compensation ( [[#Bank--2018b|Bank, 2018b]] ). The potential for an integrated adaptive SP is not yet harnessed by policymakers in tackling the structural causes of vulnerability to climate change ( [[#Tenzing--2019|Tenzing, 2019]] ). Public works programmes (i.e., India’s Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, MGNREGA) should take into account climate risk in planning and support development of community assets to increase collective resilience.

Aligning SP with climate-change interventions is an attempt to develop more durable pathways out of poverty and climate vulnerability; examples from MGNREGA depicting the attempt to align through a mainstreaming approach has helped women and their households ( [[#Adam--2015|Adam, 2015]] ; [[#Steinbach--2016|Steinbach et al., 2016]] ). On another note, the Catastrophe Insurance Framework, the first model introduced in Shenzen, China, provides timely relief for citizens and operates as a safety net, particularly for the poorest residents who do not have disposable income to cover the costs associated with bodily injuries arising from disasters ( [[#Telesetsky--2016|Telesetsky and He, 2016]] ). The Department of Labour and Employment’s Integrated Livelihood and Emergency Employment Programme in the Philippines is part of the recovery efforts after Typhoon Haiyan, providing short-term wage employment, and facilitates entrepreneurship for people affected by natural calamities and economic shocks ( [[#Bank--2018b|Bank, 2018b]] ).

In each of these instances, governments are using SP to protect populations suffering from climate change or are adversely affected by structural, pro-climate economic reforms ( [[#Hallegatte--2015|Hallegatte et al., 2015]] ). However, additional research is still needed and new tools need to be developed to inform policy design and support the implementation of ‘green’ SP, as well as to measure the net-welfare impacts of such policies (Canonge, 2016). In order to enhance SP programmes, one of the cross-cutting issues is to discuss the linkages between gender roles and responsibilities, food security, agricultural productivity and the mediating role that SP programmes can have ( [[#Jones--2017|Jones et al., 2017]] ). Social protection has a potentially important role to play in contributing to food security and agricultural productivity in a gender-responsive way ( [[#Holmes--2013|Holmes and Jones, 2013]] ). As such, experience from Challenging the Frontiers of Poverty Reduction: Targeting the Ultra Poor programme in Bangladesh has promoted social innovation by creating social and economic values, fostering microenterprises, increasing food security and fostering inclusive growth, all while empowering ultra-poor women ( [[#Emran--2014|Emran et al., 2014]] ; [[#Mahmuda--2014|Mahmuda et al., 2014]] ). Although there is increasing evidence that SP programmes are having a positive impact in terms of reducing vulnerability in women’s everyday lives ( [[#Jones--2017|Jones et al., 2017]] ), the transformative impact of these programmes is rare due to limitations in recognising women’s access to productive inputs and resources ( [[#Tanjeela--2018|Tanjeela and Rutherford, 2018]] ; Cameron, 2019).

On the other hand, poor governance practices affect delivery of SP programmes and the ability of beneficiary households to reap the benefits from such support ( [[#Sijapati--2017|Sijapati, 2017]] ). In Nepal, a closer look at public expenditure shows that about 60% of the SP budget is used by social insurance programmes that predominantly consist of public-sector pensions (Babken Babajanian, 2014; [[#Koehler--2014|Koehler, 2014]] ). Towards this end, more effort is needed to improve its existing programmes so that there is an equality of opportunities, along with secured human rights. The example from Nepal’s Child Grant is an indicative of an incremental approach to social policy ( [[#Garde--2017|Garde et al., 2017]] ). Meanwhile, in the Philippines, despite the existence of flagship national interventions that cover a significant number of people in need and have clear and robust implementation rules, there are still many programmes with overlapping mandates and target population, and several gaps in their monitoring systems ( [[#Bank--2018b|Bank, 2018b]] ).

Having an integrated SP information system would allow policymakers to better monitor inputs, outputs and outcomes (e.g., who the beneficiaries are, what they are receiving, at what frequency, what the existing gaps are) ( [[#OECD--2017a|OECD, 2017a]] ; [[#Samad--2018|Samad and Shahid, 2018]] ). Based on evidence from the assessments of three countries (Mongolia, Nepal and Vietnam), the political and institutional arrangements (i.e., the software) is as important as the technical fixes (i.e., the hardware) in the success of using information and communication technology for delivering SP programmes ( [[#ADB--2016|ADB, 2016]] ). By 2050, climate-induced migration will ''likely'' be a major policy aspect of the rural–urban nexus as slow-onset impacts of climate change in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America will ''likely'' force over 143 million people to migrate within their national borders (Kumari Rigaud, 2018). This will have major implications for SP systems, and therefore national SP strategies should be designed to anticipate and address climate-induced internal mobility ( [[#Schwan--2017|Schwan and Yu, 2017]] ). For instance, it does not offer a solution for maintaining Indigenous cultures which are often strongly affected by, or even disrupted by, climate change (Olsson, 2014). Hence, an effective approach needs to combine different policy instruments to support protection, adaptation and migration ( [[#O’Brien--2018|O’Brien et al., 2018]] ).

Evidently, SP has been financed typically through the combination of government tax revenues and official development assistance, and the challenges of the increasing frequency and intensity of natural and economic crises are straining these traditional financial sources (Durán-Valverde, 2020). In this context, innovative financing schemes are seen as critical to achieve the sustainable financing of SP ( [[#Asher--2015|Asher, 2015]] ; [[#UNICEF--2019|UNICEF, 2019]] ) via social and solidarity economy, as seen in women’s autonomous adaptation measures in precautionary savings and flood preparedness in Nepal ( [[#Banerjee--2019|Banerjee et al., 2019]] ), and self-help groups as development intermediaries ( [[#Anderson--2019|Anderson, 2019]] ). Still, there are constraints of SP to reach those who are most vulnerable to climate change and other hazards due to their legal status, such as the fact that attention to forcibly displaced populations within the SP field has been limited ( [[#Sabates-Wheeler--2019|Sabates-Wheeler, 2019]] ).

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==== 10.5.6.3 Knowledge Gaps ====

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Government SP can attenuate the negative impacts in facing disasters, depending on the differences in political systems and the focus put on sociopolitical measures ( ''medium evidence, medium agreement'' ), not only in restoring livelihoods but also in easing mental burdens faced by rural households in developing countries ( [[#Dalton--2016|Dalton et al., 2016]] ; [[#Kosec--2017|Kosec and Mo, 2017]] ; [[#Liebenehm--2018|Liebenehm, 2018]] ). However, limited government capacities and fiscal feasibility may impede the expansion and effective implementation of SP as developing countries need further support to design, adjust and implement SP schemes effectively ( [[#Klonner--2014|Klonner, 2014]] ; [[#Schwan--2017|Schwan and Yu, 2017]] ). Most countries have comprehensive strategies for both SP and climate change, but few have attempted to align them, as in practice they remain in separate institutional homes, governed by their own intra-sector coordination groups and funding channels ( [[#Steinbach--2016|Steinbach et al., 2016]] ; [[#Bank--2018b|Bank, 2018b]] ). Thus, significant knowledge gaps remain in terms of understanding the potential of SP to build long-term resilience to climate change ( [[#Ulrichs--2019|Ulrichs et al., 2019]] ). Future efforts should be geared to develop climate-responsive SP policies that consider a broad range of issues including urbanisation and migration, the impact of green policies on the poor, access to essential health care and risks to socially marginalised groups ( [[#Aleksandrova--2019|Aleksandrova, 2019]] ). Along with strengthening links to climate information and EWS, finance for enabling SP systems to address climate-related shocks and stresses dynamically needs to be scaled up ( [[#Kuriakose--2013|Kuriakose et al., 2013]] ; [[#Ulrichs--2019|Ulrichs et al., 2019]] ).

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