Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-13 (section)

=== 13.10.4 Knowledge Gaps ===

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Information on risk levels and development are available for 1.7°C, 2.5°C and &gt;4°C GWL, making the determination of transitions for the burning embers challenging and impairing a comprehensive assessment across KRs. Further efforts to extend the SSP narratives to Europe can contribute to a more disaggregated understanding of risk severity for different vulnerability and exposure conditions, but the evidence to date remains limited to few sectors (Cross-Chapter Paper 4; [[#Kok--2019|Kok et al., 2019]] ; [[#Pedde--2019|Pedde et al., 2019]] ; [[#Rohat--2019|Rohat et al., 2019]] ). There is only very ''limited evidence'' on the extent and timing of residual risks under different GWL, even with high adaptation.

There is ''medium confidence'' on the effectiveness of adaptation beyond 3°C GWL particularly where risks are high to very high (Figures 13.28–13.32). There is ''limited evidence'' on the effectiveness of specific adaptation options at different levels of warming that also include consideration of lead and lifetimes. An integrated assessment, which projects the impacts on crop production by examining the potential availability of water for agricultural purposes together with other adaptation measures, is missing.

Transboundary risks, interactions between commodity and financial markets, market imperfections, non-linear socioeconomic responses and loss of ecosystem services may amplify losses for European economies. Available models may underestimate the full costs of climate change as they generally neglect systemic risks, tipping points, indirect and intangible losses, and limits to adaptation ( [[#Dafermos--2018|Dafermos et al., 2018]] ; [[#Lamperti--2018|Lamperti et al., 2018]] ; [[#van%20Ginkel--2020|van Ginkel et al., 2020]] ; [[#Dasgupta--2021|Dasgupta, 2021]] ; [[#Ercin--2021|Ercin et al., 2021]] ; [[#Piontek--2021|Piontek et al., 2021]] ). With increasing global warming, compound, low likelihood, or unprecedented extremes such as the European dry and hot summer of 2018 or the extreme rainfall following storm Desmond in the UK in 2015, become more frequent (AR6 WGI Cross-Chapter Box 11.2). These events could have catastrophic consequences for Europe, but the extent of economic and non-economic damages and losses remain largely uncertain.

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