IPCC:AR6/WGI/SPM - Revision history

Laura: /* A. The Current State of the Climate */

2026-06-19T07:19:26Z

A. The Current State of the Climate

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	A.1.2 Each of the last four decades has been successively warmer than any decade that preceded it since 1850. Global surface temperature<sup>[[#footnote-041\|8]]</sup> in the first two decades of the 21st century (2001–2020) was 0.99 [0.84 to 1.10] °C higher than 1850–1900.<sup>[[#footnote-040\|9]]</sup> Global surface temperature was 1.09 [0.95 to 1.20] °C higher in 2011–2020 than 1850–1900, with larger increases over land (1.59 [1.34 to 1.83] °C) than over the ocean (0.88 [0.68 to 1.01] °C). The estimated increase in global surface temperature since AR5 is principally due to further warming since 2003–2012 (+0.19 [0.16 to 0.22] °C). Additionally, methodological advances and new datasets contributed approximately 0.1°C to the updated estimate of warming in AR6.<sup>[[#footnote-039\|10]]</sup> Links to chapters 2.3, Cross-Chapter Box 2.3 [[#figure-spm-1\|Figure SPM.1]]		A.1.2 Each of the last four decades has been successively warmer than any decade that preceded it since 1850. Global surface temperature<sup>[[#footnote-041\|8]]</sup> in the first two decades of the 21st century (2001–2020) was 0.99 [0.84 to 1.10] °C higher than 1850–1900.<sup>[[#footnote-040\|9]]</sup> Global surface temperature was 1.09 [0.95 to 1.20] °C higher in 2011–2020 than 1850–1900, with larger increases over land (1.59 [1.34 to 1.83] °C) than over the ocean (0.88 [0.68 to 1.01] °C). The estimated increase in global surface temperature since AR5 is principally due to further warming since 2003–2012 (+0.19 [0.16 to 0.22] °C). Additionally, methodological advances and new datasets contributed approximately 0.1°C to the updated estimate of warming in AR6.<sup>[[#footnote-039\|10]]</sup> Links to chapters 2.3, Cross-Chapter Box 2.3 [[#figure-spm-1\|Figure SPM.1]]

	A.1.3 The ''likely'' range of total human-caused global surface temperature increase from 1850–1900 to 2010–2019<sup>[[#footnote-038\|1１]]</sup> is ~~０．８°C~~ to ~~１．３°C，with~~ a best estimate of ~~１．０７°C。It~~ is ''likely'' that well-mixed GHGs contributed a warming of ~~１．０°C~~ to ~~２．０°C，other~~ human drivers (principally aerosols) contributed a cooling of ~~０．０°C~~ to ~~０．８°C，natural~~ drivers changed global surface temperature by ~~–０．１°C~~ to +~~０．１°C，and~~ internal variability changed it by ~~–０．２°C~~ to +~~０．２°C。It~~ is ''very likely'' that well-mixed GHGs were the main driver<sup>[[#footnote-~~₀₃₇~~\|₁₂]]</sup> of tropospheric warming since ~~１９７９~~ and ''extremely likely'' that human-caused stratospheric ozone depletion was the main driver of cooling of the lower stratosphere between ~~１９７９~~ and the mid-~~１９９０s。~~ Links to ~~chapters３．３，６．４，７．３，TS．２．３，Cross~~-Section Box ~~TS．１~~ [[#figure-spm-２\|Figure ~~SPM．２~~]]		A.1.3 The ''likely'' range of total human-caused global surface temperature increase from 1850–1900 to 2010–2019<sup>[[#footnote-038\|11]]</sup> is 0.8°C to 1.3°C，with a best estimate of 1.07C. It is ''likely'' that well-mixed GHGs contributed a warming of 1.0°C to 2.0°C，other human drivers (principally aerosols) contributed a cooling of 0.0°C to 0.8°C，natural drivers changed global surface temperature by –0.1°C to +0.1°C，and internal variability changed it by –0.2°C to +0.2°C。It is ''very likely'' that well-mixed GHGs were the main driver<sup>[[#footnote-037\|12]]</sup> of tropospheric warming since 1979 and ''extremely likely'' that human-caused stratospheric ozone depletion was the main driver of cooling of the lower stratosphere between 1979 and the mid-1990s. Links to chapters 3.3, 6..4, 7.3, TS.2.3, Cross-Section Box. TS.1 [[#figure-spm-2\|Figure SPM.2]]

	A.1.4 Globally averaged precipitation over land has ''likely'' increased since 1950, with a faster rate of increase since the 1980s (''medium confidence''). It is ''likely'' that human influence contributed to the pattern of observed precipitation changes since the mid-20th century and ''extremely likely'' that human influence contributed to the pattern of observed changes in near-surface ocean salinity. Mid-latitude storm tracks have ''likely'' shifted poleward in both hemispheres since the 1980s, with marked seasonality in trends (''medium confidence''). For the Southern Hemisphere, human influence ''very likely'' contributed to the poleward shift of the closely related extratropical jet in austral summer. Links to chapters 2.3, 3.3, 8.3, 9.2, TS.2.3, TS.2.4, Box TS.6		A.1.4 Globally averaged precipitation over land has ''likely'' increased since 1950, with a faster rate of increase since the 1980s (''medium confidence''). It is ''likely'' that human influence contributed to the pattern of observed precipitation changes since the mid-20th century and ''extremely likely'' that human influence contributed to the pattern of observed changes in near-surface ocean salinity. Mid-latitude storm tracks have ''likely'' shifted poleward in both hemispheres since the 1980s, with marked seasonality in trends (''medium confidence''). For the Southern Hemisphere, human influence ''very likely'' contributed to the poleward shift of the closely related extratropical jet in austral summer. Links to chapters 2.3, 3.3, 8.3, 9.2, TS.2.3, TS.2.4, Box TS.6

Laura at 07:15, 19 June 2026

2026-06-19T07:15:37Z

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	D.2.4 Scenarios with very low and low GHG emissions (SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6) would lead to substantially smaller changes in a range of CIDs<sup>[[#footnote-013\|36]]</sup> beyond 2040 than under high and very high GHG emissions scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). By the end of the century, scenarios with very low and low GHG emissions would strongly limit the change of several CIDs, such as the increases in the frequency of extreme sea level events, heavy precipitation and pluvial flooding, and exceedance of dangerous heat thresholds, while limiting the number of regions where such exceedances occur, relative to higher GHG emissions scenarios (''high confidence''). Changes would also be smaller in very low compared to low GHG emissions scenarios, as well as for intermediate (SSP2-4.5) compared to high or very high GHG emissions scenarios (''high confidence''). Links to chapters 9.6, 11.2, 11.3, 11.4, 11.5, 11.6, 11.9, Cross-Chapter Box 11.1, 12.4, 12.5, TS.4.3		D.2.4 Scenarios with very low and low GHG emissions (SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6) would lead to substantially smaller changes in a range of CIDs<sup>[[#footnote-013\|36]]</sup> beyond 2040 than under high and very high GHG emissions scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). By the end of the century, scenarios with very low and low GHG emissions would strongly limit the change of several CIDs, such as the increases in the frequency of extreme sea level events, heavy precipitation and pluvial flooding, and exceedance of dangerous heat thresholds, while limiting the number of regions where such exceedances occur, relative to higher GHG emissions scenarios (''high confidence''). Changes would also be smaller in very low compared to low GHG emissions scenarios, as well as for intermediate (SSP2-4.5) compared to high or very high GHG emissions scenarios (''high confidence''). Links to chapters 9.6, 11.2, 11.3, 11.4, 11.5, 11.6, 11.9, Cross-Chapter Box 11.1, 12.4, 12.5, TS.4.3

	## Footnotes		== Footnotes ==

	<div id="footnote-048" class="_idFootnote"></div>		<div id="footnote-048" class="_idFootnote"></div>

Laura at 07:15, 19 June 2026

2026-06-19T07:15:16Z

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	D.2.4 Scenarios with very low and low GHG emissions (SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6) would lead to substantially smaller changes in a range of CIDs<sup>[[#footnote-013\|36]]</sup> beyond 2040 than under high and very high GHG emissions scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). By the end of the century, scenarios with very low and low GHG emissions would strongly limit the change of several CIDs, such as the increases in the frequency of extreme sea level events, heavy precipitation and pluvial flooding, and exceedance of dangerous heat thresholds, while limiting the number of regions where such exceedances occur, relative to higher GHG emissions scenarios (''high confidence''). Changes would also be smaller in very low compared to low GHG emissions scenarios, as well as for intermediate (SSP2-4.5) compared to high or very high GHG emissions scenarios (''high confidence''). Links to chapters 9.6, 11.2, 11.3, 11.4, 11.5, 11.6, 11.9, Cross-Chapter Box 11.1, 12.4, 12.5, TS.4.3		D.2.4 Scenarios with very low and low GHG emissions (SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6) would lead to substantially smaller changes in a range of CIDs<sup>[[#footnote-013\|36]]</sup> beyond 2040 than under high and very high GHG emissions scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). By the end of the century, scenarios with very low and low GHG emissions would strongly limit the change of several CIDs, such as the increases in the frequency of extreme sea level events, heavy precipitation and pluvial flooding, and exceedance of dangerous heat thresholds, while limiting the number of regions where such exceedances occur, relative to higher GHG emissions scenarios (''high confidence''). Changes would also be smaller in very low compared to low GHG emissions scenarios, as well as for intermediate (SSP2-4.5) compared to high or very high GHG emissions scenarios (''high confidence''). Links to chapters 9.6, 11.2, 11.3, 11.4, 11.5, 11.6, 11.9, Cross-Chapter Box 11.1, 12.4, 12.5, TS.4.3

	~~-----~~		## Footnotes

	<div id="footnote-048" class="_idFootnote"></div>		<div id="footnote-048" class="_idFootnote"></div>

Laura: /* D. Limiting Future Climate Change */

2026-06-19T07:14:48Z

D. Limiting Future Climate Change

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	<div id="footnote-022" class="_idFootnote"></div>		<div id="footnote-022" class="_idFootnote"></div>

	[[#footnote-022-backlink\|27]] The AR6 assessment of when a given global warming level is first exceeded benefits from the consideration of the illustrative scenarios, the multiple lines of evidence entering the assessment of future global surface temperature response to radiative forcing, and the improved estimate of historical warming. The AR6 assessment is thus not directly comparable to the SR1.5 SPM, which reported '''likely''' reaching 1.5°C global warming between 2030 and 2052, from a simple linear extrapolation of warming rates of the recent past. When considering scenarios similar to SSP1-1.9 instead of linear extrapolation, the SR1.5 estimate of when 1.5°C global warming is first exceeded is close to the best estimate reported here.		[[#footnote-022-backlink\|27]] The AR6 assessment of when a given global warming level is first exceeded benefits from the consideration of the illustrative scenarios, the multiple lines of evidence entering the assessment of future global surface temperature response to radiative forcing, and the improved estimate of historical warming. The AR6 assessment is thus not directly comparable to the SR1.5 SPM, which reported ''likely'' reaching 1.5°C global warming between 2030 and 2052, from a simple linear extrapolation of warming rates of the recent past. When considering scenarios similar to SSP1-1.9 instead of linear extrapolation, the SR1.5 estimate of when 1.5°C global warming is first exceeded is close to the best estimate reported here.

	<div id="footnote-021" class="_idFootnote"></div>		<div id="footnote-021" class="_idFootnote"></div>

Laura: /* D. Limiting Future Climate Change */

2026-06-19T07:12:31Z

D. Limiting Future Climate Change

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	[[File:5d821c5dcfcd89167a448eba30292ded IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM_Table_2.png]]		[[File:5d821c5dcfcd89167a448eba30292ded IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM_Table_2.png]]

	<sup>a</sup> Values at each 0.1°C increment of warming are available in Tables TS.3 and 5.8.		<sup>a</sup> Values at each 0.1°C increment of warming are available in Tables TS.3 and 5.8.

Laura: /* D. Limiting Future Climate Change */

2026-06-19T07:12:12Z

D. Limiting Future Climate Change

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	<div id="h1-5-siblings" class="h1-siblings"></div>		<div id="h1-5-siblings" class="h1-siblings"></div>

	''Since AR5, estimates of remaining carbon budgets have been improved by a new methodology first presented in SR1.5, updated evidence, and the integration of results from multiple lines of evidence. A comprehensive range of possible future air pollution controls in scenarios is used to consistently assess the effects of various assumptions on projections of climate and air pollution. A novel development is the ability to ascertain when climate responses to emissions reductions would become discernible above natural climate variability, including internal variability and responses to natural drivers.'' '''D.1 From a physical science perspective, limiting human-induced global warming to a specific level requires limiting cumulative CO <sub>2</sub> emissions, reaching at least net zero CO <sub>2</sub> emissions, along with strong reductions in other greenhouse gas emissions. Strong, rapid and sustained reductions in CH <sub>4</sub> emissions would also limit the warming effect resulting from declining aerosol pollution and would improve air quality. Expand [[#figure-spm-10\|Figure SPM.10]] [[#table-spm-2\|Table SPM.2]] Links to chapters 3.3, 4.6, 5.1, 5.2, 5.4, 5.5, 5.6, Box 5.2, Cross-Chapter Box 5.1, 6.7, 7.6, 9.6'''		''Since AR5, estimates of remaining carbon budgets have been improved by a new methodology first presented in SR1.5, updated evidence, and the integration of results from multiple lines of evidence. A comprehensive range of possible future air pollution controls in scenarios is used to consistently assess the effects of various assumptions on projections of climate and air pollution. A novel development is the ability to ascertain when climate responses to emissions reductions would become discernible above natural climate variability, including internal variability and responses to natural drivers.''

			'''D.1 From a physical science perspective, limiting human-induced global warming to a specific level requires limiting cumulative CO <sub>2</sub> emissions, reaching at least net zero CO <sub>2</sub> emissions, along with strong reductions in other greenhouse gas emissions. Strong, rapid and sustained reductions in CH <sub>4</sub> emissions would also limit the warming effect resulting from declining aerosol pollution and would improve air quality. Expand [[#figure-spm-10\|Figure SPM.10]] [[#table-spm-2\|Table SPM.2]] Links to chapters 3.3, 4.6, 5.1, 5.2, 5.4, 5.5, 5.6, Box 5.2, Cross-Chapter Box 5.1, 6.7, 7.6, 9.6'''
	<div id="spmbulletcont-d1" class="spmbulletcont"></div>		<div id="spmbulletcont-d1" class="spmbulletcont"></div>

Laura: /* A. The Current State of the Climate */

2026-06-19T07:11:32Z

A. The Current State of the Climate

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	<div id="h1-2-siblings" class="h1-siblings"></div>		<div id="h1-2-siblings" class="h1-siblings"></div>

	'''Since AR5, improvements in observationally based estimates and information from paleoclimate archives provide a comprehensive view of each component of the climate system and its changes to date. New climate model simulations, new analyses, and methods combining multiple lines of evidence lead to improved understanding of human influence on a wider range of climate variables, including weather and climate extremes. The time periods considered throughout this section depend upon the availability of observational products, paleoclimate archives and peer-reviewed studies.''' '''A.1 It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land. Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred. Expand [[#figure-spm-1\|Figures SPM.1]] , [[#figure-spm-2\|SPM.2]] Links to chapters 2.2, 2.3, Cross-Chapter Box 2.3, 3.3, 3.4, 3.5, 3.6, 3.8, 5.2, 5.3, 6.4, 7.3, 8.3, 9.2, 9.3, 9.5, 9.6, Cross-Chapter Box 9.1'''		''Since AR5, improvements in observationally based estimates and information from paleoclimate archives provide a comprehensive view of each component of the climate system and its changes to date. New climate model simulations, new analyses, and methods combining multiple lines of evidence lead to improved understanding of human influence on a wider range of climate variables, including weather and climate extremes. The time periods considered throughout this section depend upon the availability of observational products, paleoclimate archives and peer-reviewed studies.''

			'''A.1 It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land. Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred. Expand [[#figure-spm-1\|Figures SPM.1]] , [[#figure-spm-2\|SPM.2]] Links to chapters 2.2, 2.3, Cross-Chapter Box 2.3, 3.3, 3.4, 3.5, 3.6, 3.8, 5.2, 5.3, 6.4, 7.3, 8.3, 9.2, 9.3, 9.5, 9.6, Cross-Chapter Box 9.1'''
	<div id="spmbulletcont-a1" class="spmbulletcont"></div>		<div id="spmbulletcont-a1" class="spmbulletcont"></div>

Laura: /* B. Possible Climate Futures */

2026-06-19T07:11:10Z

B. Possible Climate Futures

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	<div id="h1-3-siblings" class="h1-siblings"></div>		<div id="h1-3-siblings" class="h1-siblings"></div>

	'''A set of five new illustrative emissions scenarios is considered consistently across this Report to explore the climate response to a broader range of greenhouse gas (GHG), land-use and air pollutant futures than assessed in AR5. This set of scenarios drives climate model projections of changes in the climate system. These projections account for solar activity and background forcing from volcanoes. Results over the 21st century are provided for the near term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060) and long term (2081–2100) relative to 1850–1900, unless otherwise stated.'''		''A set of five new illustrative emissions scenarios is considered consistently across this Report to explore the climate response to a broader range of greenhouse gas (GHG), land-use and air pollutant futures than assessed in AR5. This set of scenarios drives climate model projections of changes in the climate system. These projections account for solar activity and background forcing from volcanoes. Results over the 21st century are provided for the near term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060) and long term (2081–2100) relative to 1850–1900, unless otherwise stated.''

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	<div class="container-box col-regular">		<div class="container-box col-regular">

	== Box SPM.1 \| Scenarios, Climate Models and Projections Expand ==		== Box SPM.1 \| Scenarios, Climate Models and Projections Expand ==

Laura: /* C. Climate Information for Risk Assessment and Regional Adaptation */

2026-06-19T07:10:57Z

C. Climate Information for Risk Assessment and Regional Adaptation

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	<div id="h1-4-siblings" class="h1-siblings"></div>		<div id="h1-4-siblings" class="h1-siblings"></div>

	''Physical climate information addresses how the climate system responds to the interplay between human influence, natural drivers and internal variability. Knowledge of the climate response and the range of possible outcomes, including low-likelihood, high impact outcomes, informs climate services, the assessment of climate-related risks, and adaptation planning. Physical climate information at global, regional and local scales is developed from multiple lines of evidence, including observational products, climate model outputs and tailored diagnostics.'' '''C.1 Natural drivers and internal variability will modulate human-caused changes, especially at regional scales and in the near term, with little effect on centennial global warming. These modulations are important to consider in planning for the full range of possible changes. Expand Links to chapters 1.4, 2.2, 3.3, Cross-Chapter Box 3.1, 4.4, 4.6, Cross-Chapter Box 4.1, Box 7.2, 8.3, 8.5, 9.2, 10.3, 10.4, 10.6, 11.3, 12.5, Atlas.4, Atlas.5, Atlas.8, Atlas.9, Atlas.10, Atlas.11, Cross-Chapter Box Atlas.2'''		''Physical climate information addresses how the climate system responds to the interplay between human influence, natural drivers and internal variability. Knowledge of the climate response and the range of possible outcomes, including low-likelihood, high impact outcomes, informs climate services, the assessment of climate-related risks, and adaptation planning. Physical climate information at global, regional and local scales is developed from multiple lines of evidence, including observational products, climate model outputs and tailored diagnostics.''

			'''C.1 Natural drivers and internal variability will modulate human-caused changes, especially at regional scales and in the near term, with little effect on centennial global warming. These modulations are important to consider in planning for the full range of possible changes. Expand Links to chapters 1.4, 2.2, 3.3, Cross-Chapter Box 3.1, 4.4, 4.6, Cross-Chapter Box 4.1, Box 7.2, 8.3, 8.5, 9.2, 10.3, 10.4, 10.6, 11.3, 12.5, Atlas.4, Atlas.5, Atlas.8, Atlas.9, Atlas.10, Atlas.11, Cross-Chapter Box Atlas.2'''
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	<span id="d.-limiting-future-climate-change"></span>		<span id="d.-limiting-future-climate-change"></span>

	== D. Limiting Future Climate Change ==		== D. Limiting Future Climate Change ==

Laura: /* Box SPM.1 | Scenarios, Climate Models and Projections Expand */

2026-06-19T07:10:14Z

Box SPM.1 | Scenarios, Climate Models and Projections Expand

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	'''Hot temperature extremes''' are defined as the daily maximum temperatures over land that were exceeded on average once in a decade (10-year event) or once in 50 years (50-year event) during the 1850–1900 reference period. '''Extreme precipitation events''' are defined as the daily precipitation amount over land that was exceeded on average once in a decade during the 1850–1900 reference period. '''Agricultural and ecological drought events''' are defined as the annual average of total column soil moisture below the 10th percentile of the 1850–1900 base period. These extremes are defined on model grid box scale. For hot temperature extremes and extreme precipitation, results are shown for the global land. For agricultural and ecological drought, results are shown for drying regions only, which correspond to the AR6 regions in which there is at least ''medium confidence'' in a projected increase in agricultural and ecological droughts at the 2°C warming level compared to the 1850–1900 base period in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). These regions include Western North America, Central North America, Northern Central America, Southern Central America, Caribbean, Northern South America, North-Eastern South America, South American Monsoon, South-Western South America, Southern South America, Western and Central Europe, Mediterranean, West Southern Africa, East Southern Africa, Madagascar, Eastern Australia, and Southern Australia (Caribbean is not included in the calculation of the figure because of the too-small number of full land grid cells). The non-drying regions do not show an overall increase or decrease in drought severity. Projections of changes in agricultural and ecological droughts in the CMIP Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble differ from those in CMIP6 in some regions, including in parts of Africa and Asia. Assessments of projected changes in meteorological and hydrological droughts are provided in Chapter 11.		'''Hot temperature extremes''' are defined as the daily maximum temperatures over land that were exceeded on average once in a decade (10-year event) or once in 50 years (50-year event) during the 1850–1900 reference period. '''Extreme precipitation events''' are defined as the daily precipitation amount over land that was exceeded on average once in a decade during the 1850–1900 reference period. '''Agricultural and ecological drought events''' are defined as the annual average of total column soil moisture below the 10th percentile of the 1850–1900 base period. These extremes are defined on model grid box scale. For hot temperature extremes and extreme precipitation, results are shown for the global land. For agricultural and ecological drought, results are shown for drying regions only, which correspond to the AR6 regions in which there is at least ''medium confidence'' in a projected increase in agricultural and ecological droughts at the 2°C warming level compared to the 1850–1900 base period in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). These regions include Western North America, Central North America, Northern Central America, Southern Central America, Caribbean, Northern South America, North-Eastern South America, South American Monsoon, South-Western South America, Southern South America, Western and Central Europe, Mediterranean, West Southern Africa, East Southern Africa, Madagascar, Eastern Australia, and Southern Australia (Caribbean is not included in the calculation of the figure because of the too-small number of full land grid cells). The non-drying regions do not show an overall increase or decrease in drought severity. Projections of changes in agricultural and ecological droughts in the CMIP Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble differ from those in CMIP6 in some regions, including in parts of Africa and Asia. Assessments of projected changes in meteorological and hydrological droughts are provided in Chapter 11.

	In the '''‘frequency’ section''' , each year is represented by a dot. The dark dots indicate years in which the extreme threshold is exceeded, while light dots are years when the threshold is not exceeded. Values correspond to the medians (in bold) and their respective 5–95% range based on the multi-model ensemble from simulations of CMIP6 under different Shared Socio-economic Pathway scenarios. For consistency, the number of dark dots is based on the rounded-up median. In The '''‘intensity’ section''' , medians and their 5–95% range, also based on the multi-model ensemble from simulations of CMIP6, are displayed as dark and light bars, respectively. Changes in the intensity of hot temperature extremes and extreme precipitation are expressed as degree Celsius and percentage. As for agricultural and ecological drought, intensity changes are expressed as fractions of standard deviation of annual soil moisture. Links to chapters 11.1; 11.3; 11.4; 11.6; 11.9; Figures 11.12, 11.15, 11.6, 11.7, and 11.18		In the '''‘frequency’ section''', each year is represented by a dot. The dark dots indicate years in which the extreme threshold is exceeded, while light dots are years when the threshold is not exceeded. Values correspond to the medians (in bold) and their respective 5–95% range based on the multi-model ensemble from simulations of CMIP6 under different Shared Socio-economic Pathway scenarios. For consistency, the number of dark dots is based on the rounded-up median. In The '''‘intensity’ section''', medians and their 5–95% range, also based on the multi-model ensemble from simulations of CMIP6, are displayed as dark and light bars, respectively. Changes in the intensity of hot temperature extremes and extreme precipitation are expressed as degree Celsius and percentage. As for agricultural and ecological drought, intensity changes are expressed as fractions of standard deviation of annual soil moisture. Links to chapters 11.1; 11.3; 11.4; 11.6; 11.9; Figures 11.12, 11.15, 11.6, 11.7, and 11.18

	'''B.3 Continued global warming is projected to further intensify the global water cycle, including its variability, global monsoon precipitation and the severity of wet and dry events. Expand [[#figure-spm-5\|Figures SPM.5]] , [[#figure-spm-6\|SPM.6]] Links to chapters 4.3, 4.4, 4.5, 4.6, 8.2, 8.3, 8.4, 8.5, Box 8.2, 11.4, 11.6, 11.9, 12.4, Atlas.3'''		'''B.3 Continued global warming is projected to further intensify the global water cycle, including its variability, global monsoon precipitation and the severity of wet and dry events. Expand [[#figure-spm-5\|Figures SPM.5]] , [[#figure-spm-6\|SPM.6]] Links to chapters 4.3, 4.4, 4.5, 4.6, 8.2, 8.3, 8.4, 8.5, Box 8.2, 11.4, 11.6, 11.9, 12.4, Atlas.3'''