Laura at 08:49, 22 May 2026

2026-05-22T08:49:09Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 08:49, 22 May 2026
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			\| reporturl = IPCC:AR6/WGII
			\| reporttitle = WGII
			\| prevurl = IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-15
			\| nexturl = IPCC:AR6/WGII/Cross-Chapter-Paper-2
			}}

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Laura: Laura moved page IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Ccp1 to IPCC:AR6/WGII/Cross-Chapter-Paper-1 without leaving a redirect

2026-05-18T18:23:35Z

Laura moved page IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Ccp1 to IPCC:AR6/WGII/Cross-Chapter-Paper-1 without leaving a redirect

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Laura: #119

2026-05-15T12:06:56Z

#119

Laura: /* Cross-Chapter Paper 1: Biodiversity Hotspots */

2026-05-13T14:09:49Z

Cross-Chapter Paper 1: Biodiversity Hotspots

← Older revision		Revision as of 14:09, 13 May 2026
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	<div id="chapter-citation"></div>		<div id="chapter-citation"></div>

	This cross-chapter paper should be cited as:		'''This cross-chapter paper should be cited as:'''

	Costello, M.J., M.M. Vale, W. Kiessling, S. Maharaj, J. Price, and G.H. Talukdar, 2022: Cross-Chapter Paper 1: Biodiversity Hotspots. In: ''Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.'' Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 2123–2161, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.018.		Costello, M.J., M.M. Vale, W. Kiessling, S. Maharaj, J. Price, and G.H. Talukdar, 2022: Cross-Chapter Paper 1: Biodiversity Hotspots. In: ''Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.'' Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 2123–2161, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.018.

imported>Design: /* Cross-Chapter Paper 1: Biodiversity Hotspots */

2026-05-11T08:07:44Z

Cross-Chapter Paper 1: Biodiversity Hotspots

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← Older revision		Revision as of 12:06, 15 May 2026
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	[[File:a5d3fe4213076d628589e37a0b07bc8d IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_CCP1_002.png]]		[[File:a5d3fe4213076d628589e37a0b07bc8d IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_CCP1_002.png]]

	'''Figure CCP1.2 \|''' '''Recent human impacts from multiple factors on~~'''~~ ''''''(a)~~'''~~''' '''freshwater hotspots since 2000, based on Janse et''' '''al.''' '''(2015) and (b) marine hotspots based on [[#Halpern--2015\|Halpern et al. (2015)]] .''' Human impacts in freshwater areas refer to the remaining wilderness. Marine impacts represent land-based, fishing, climate change and ocean-based stressors. Impacts are scaled into five equal 20% categories. See Table CCP1.1 for the key to hotspot numbers.		'''Figure CCP1.2 \|''' '''Recent human impacts from multiple factors on''' '''(a)''' '''freshwater hotspots since 2000, based on Janse et''' '''al.''' '''(2015) and (b) marine hotspots based on [[#Halpern--2015\|Halpern et al. (2015)]] .''' Human impacts in freshwater areas refer to the remaining wilderness. Marine impacts represent land-based, fishing, climate change and ocean-based stressors. Impacts are scaled into five equal 20% categories. See Table CCP1.1 for the key to hotspot numbers.

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	[[File:c0bd1751c9399491c25b2ebc32c80076 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_CCP1_003.png]]		[[File:c0bd1751c9399491c25b2ebc32c80076 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_CCP1_003.png]]

	'''Figure CCP1.3 \|''' '''Climate velocities in terrestrial~~'''~~ ''''''(a)~~'''~~''' ''', freshwater~~'''~~ ''''''(b)~~'''~~''' '''and marine~~''' ''~~''''(c)~~'''~~''' '''hotspots between 1970–2019.''' Values are presented in kilometres per decade and derived using the analytical package VoCC ( [[#García%20Molinos--2019\|García Molinos et al., 2019]] ) from gridded temperature data, sea surface temperatures for marine ( [[#Rayner--2003\|Rayner et al., 2003]] ) and near-surface air temperatures on land and freshwater ( [[#Harris--2020\|Harris et al., 2020]] ). Positive and negative velocities indicate warming and cooling, respectively.		'''Figure CCP1.3 \|''' '''Climate velocities in terrestrial''' '''(a)''' ''', freshwater''' '''(b)''' '''and marine''''(c)''' '''hotspots between 1970–2019.''' Values are presented in kilometres per decade and derived using the analytical package VoCC ( [[#García%20Molinos--2019\|García Molinos et al., 2019]] ) from gridded temperature data, sea surface temperatures for marine ( [[#Rayner--2003\|Rayner et al., 2003]] ) and near-surface air temperatures on land and freshwater ( [[#Harris--2020\|Harris et al., 2020]] ). Positive and negative velocities indicate warming and cooling, respectively.

	Marine hotspots have a wider range of climate velocities than terrestrial and freshwater environments (Figure CCP1.3), being faster in equatorial, Mediterranean (H216), Baltic (H215), North and Okhotsk (H229), and Arctic hotspots (H196, 214), and slow in the Antarctic hotspot (H213). Marine species tend to follow climate velocities more closely than terrestrial species ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Sunday--2012\|Sunday et al., 2012]] ; [[#Pinsky--2019\|Pinsky et al., 2019]] ; [[#Lenoir--2020\|Lenoir et al., 2020]] ). The reasons may be smaller thermal safety margins in the seas or greater human impacts on land impeding species range shifts. Climate velocities are particularly fast in equatorial seas (Figure CCP1.3; ( [[#Burrows--2011\|Burrows et al., 2011]] ), which are therefore expected to be source areas for species shifting their ranges towards the subtropics ( [[#Burrows--2014\|Burrows et al., 2014]] ). The subtropics are then source areas of species that shift to temperate latitudes and so forth, such that observed impacts in marine biodiversity hotspots are largely attributable to species range shifts ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Pecl--2017\|Pecl et al., 2017]] ). Because marine climate velocities are significantly greater within than outside hotspots, marine hotspots are especially prone to species redistributions ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Figure CCP1.3; ( [[#Kocsis--2021\|Kocsis et al., 2021]] ).		Marine hotspots have a wider range of climate velocities than terrestrial and freshwater environments (Figure CCP1.3), being faster in equatorial, Mediterranean (H216), Baltic (H215), North and Okhotsk (H229), and Arctic hotspots (H196, 214), and slow in the Antarctic hotspot (H213). Marine species tend to follow climate velocities more closely than terrestrial species ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Sunday--2012\|Sunday et al., 2012]] ; [[#Pinsky--2019\|Pinsky et al., 2019]] ; [[#Lenoir--2020\|Lenoir et al., 2020]] ). The reasons may be smaller thermal safety margins in the seas or greater human impacts on land impeding species range shifts. Climate velocities are particularly fast in equatorial seas (Figure CCP1.3; ( [[#Burrows--2011\|Burrows et al., 2011]] ), which are therefore expected to be source areas for species shifting their ranges towards the subtropics ( [[#Burrows--2014\|Burrows et al., 2014]] ). The subtropics are then source areas of species that shift to temperate latitudes and so forth, such that observed impacts in marine biodiversity hotspots are largely attributable to species range shifts ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Pecl--2017\|Pecl et al., 2017]] ). Because marine climate velocities are significantly greater within than outside hotspots, marine hotspots are especially prone to species redistributions ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Figure CCP1.3; ( [[#Kocsis--2021\|Kocsis et al., 2021]] ).
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	[[File:6d2cf0fcb752770752634eb91e0d66d3 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_CCP1_005.png]]		[[File:6d2cf0fcb752770752634eb91e0d66d3 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_CCP1_005.png]]

	'''Figure CCP1.5 \|''' '''Projected future warming in degrees Celsius for freshwater (left column, near-surface air temperature, panels~~'''~~ ''''''a~~'''~~''' ''',~~'''~~ ''''''c~~'''~~''' '''and~~'''~~ ''''''e~~'''~~''' ''') and marine (right column as sea surface temperature, panels~~'''~~ ''''''b~~'''~~''' ''',~~'''~~ ''''''d~~'''~~''' '''and~~'''~~ ''''''f~~'''~~''' ''')''' '''hotspots for a global average warming of +1.''' '''5°C (a, b), +2°C (c, d) and +3°C''' '''(e, f) compared to pre-industrial conditions.''' Values in text boxes in the figures indicate temperature increase from present-day (2005–2014) settings. Projected temperatures were calculated with averages of multi-model, yearly means across Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 1.26 (only for +1.5°C), SSP2-45, SSP3-70 and SSP5-85.		'''Figure CCP1.5 \|''' '''Projected future warming in degrees Celsius for freshwater (left column, near-surface air temperature, panels''' '''a''' ''',''' '''c''' '''and''' '''e''' ''') and marine (right column as sea surface temperature, panels''' '''b''' ''',''' '''d''' '''and''' '''f''' ''')''' '''hotspots for a global average warming of +1.''' '''5°C (a, b), +2°C (c, d) and +3°C''' '''(e, f) compared to pre-industrial conditions.''' Values in text boxes in the figures indicate temperature increase from present-day (2005–2014) settings. Projected temperatures were calculated with averages of multi-model, yearly means across Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 1.26 (only for +1.5°C), SSP2-45, SSP3-70 and SSP5-85.

	<div id="CCP1.2.1.2.2" class="h4-container"></div>		<div id="CCP1.2.1.2.2" class="h4-container"></div>
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	[[File:c5a38e6af612d0c08d27ef9cec118839 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_CCP1_007.png]]		[[File:c5a38e6af612d0c08d27ef9cec118839 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_CCP1_007.png]]

	'''Figure CCP1.7 \|''' '''The projected impacts of climate change on species in 232 studies~~'''~~ ''''''(a)~~'''~~''' '''terrestrial and~~'''~~ ''''''(b)~~'''~~''' '''marine hotspots (adapted from Manes e''' '''t al.''' ''', 2021), illustrating the number and percentage of species showing positive (blue) and negative (orange) responses to climate change, and threatened with extinction (red).''' Note Oceania includes Australia, New Zealand, Wallacea, New Guinea, New Caledonia, Polynesia and Micronesia and overlaps the global Small Islands category, which excludes Australia. The Small Islands category represents oceanic and continent-associated small islands, and thus overlaps with Oceania and continental data.		'''Figure CCP1.7 \|''' '''The projected impacts of climate change on species in 232 studies''' '''(a)''' '''terrestrial and''' '''(b)''' '''marine hotspots (adapted from Manes e''' '''t al.''' ''', 2021), illustrating the number and percentage of species showing positive (blue) and negative (orange) responses to climate change, and threatened with extinction (red).''' Note Oceania includes Australia, New Zealand, Wallacea, New Guinea, New Caledonia, Polynesia and Micronesia and overlaps the global Small Islands category, which excludes Australia. The Small Islands category represents oceanic and continent-associated small islands, and thus overlaps with Oceania and continental data.

	In Central and South America, risks have been assessed in at least 24 terrestrial hotspots, especially within the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, Mesoamerica and the Caribbean, the most studied hotspots in the world in terms of climate change impacts (H47, 44, 15, 16, 20, respectively) ( [[#Manes--2021\|Manes et al., 2021]] ). About 85% of projections for assessed species showed a negative impact of climate change ( ''high confidence'' ), with ~26% projecting species extinctions (Figure CCP1.7; [[#Manes--2021\|Manes et al., 2021]] ). Projected impacts include contraction or loss of species’ geographic range, loss of diversity and high species turnover ( ''high confidence'' ). Most studies had focused on vertebrates and plants in the Atlantic Forest (H47) and Cerrado (H44) ( [[#Loyola--2014\|Loyola et al., 2014]] ; [[#de%20Oliveira--2015\|de Oliveira et al., 2015]] ; [[#Vale--2018\|Vale et al., 2018]] ; [[#Vasconcelos--2018\|Vasconcelos et al., 2018]] ; [[#Hidasi-Neto--2019\|Hidasi-Neto et al., 2019]] ; [[#Lima--2019\|Lima et al., 2019]] ; [[#Lourenço-de-Moraes--2019\|Lourenço-de-Moraes et al., 2019]] ; [[#Vasconcelos--2019\|Vasconcelos and Prado, 2019]] ; [[#Velazco--2019\|Velazco et al., 2019]] ). Several insect species are projected to lose suitable climatic conditions, including moths in Cerrado (H44) ( [[#Khormi--2014\|Khormi and Kumar, 2014]] ). There were projected negative impacts on vegetation such as rupestrian grasslands in Cerrado (H44) ( [[#Fernandes--2018\|Fernandes et al., 2018]] ) and tropical and temperate forests in Mesoamerica (H15, H16) ( [[#Mendoza-Ponce--2018\|Mendoza-Ponce et al., 2018]] ; [[#Mendoza-Ponce--2019\|Mendoza-Ponce et al., 2019]] ). Endemic species face consistent risks of decrease in suitable habitat in the Atlantic Forest (H47) ( [[#Vale--2018\|Vale et al., 2018]] ), Cerrado (H44) ( [[#Vasconcelos--2014\|Vasconcelos, 2014]] ), Tumbes-Chocó-Magdalena (H28, H23) ( [[#Hermes--2018\|Hermes et al., 2018]] ), and Mesoamerica (H15, H16) ( [[#Garcia--2014\|Garcia et al., 2014]] ; [[#Ramírez-Amezcua--2016\|Ramírez-Amezcua et al., 2016]] ). Climate change may also benefit invasive plant species in terms of range expansion ( [[#Wang--2017\|Wang et al., 2017]] ) and physiology ( [[#de%20Faria--2018\|de Faria et al., 2018]] ) in the region.		In Central and South America, risks have been assessed in at least 24 terrestrial hotspots, especially within the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, Mesoamerica and the Caribbean, the most studied hotspots in the world in terms of climate change impacts (H47, 44, 15, 16, 20, respectively) ( [[#Manes--2021\|Manes et al., 2021]] ). About 85% of projections for assessed species showed a negative impact of climate change ( ''high confidence'' ), with ~26% projecting species extinctions (Figure CCP1.7; [[#Manes--2021\|Manes et al., 2021]] ). Projected impacts include contraction or loss of species’ geographic range, loss of diversity and high species turnover ( ''high confidence'' ). Most studies had focused on vertebrates and plants in the Atlantic Forest (H47) and Cerrado (H44) ( [[#Loyola--2014\|Loyola et al., 2014]] ; [[#de%20Oliveira--2015\|de Oliveira et al., 2015]] ; [[#Vale--2018\|Vale et al., 2018]] ; [[#Vasconcelos--2018\|Vasconcelos et al., 2018]] ; [[#Hidasi-Neto--2019\|Hidasi-Neto et al., 2019]] ; [[#Lima--2019\|Lima et al., 2019]] ; [[#Lourenço-de-Moraes--2019\|Lourenço-de-Moraes et al., 2019]] ; [[#Vasconcelos--2019\|Vasconcelos and Prado, 2019]] ; [[#Velazco--2019\|Velazco et al., 2019]] ). Several insect species are projected to lose suitable climatic conditions, including moths in Cerrado (H44) ( [[#Khormi--2014\|Khormi and Kumar, 2014]] ). There were projected negative impacts on vegetation such as rupestrian grasslands in Cerrado (H44) ( [[#Fernandes--2018\|Fernandes et al., 2018]] ) and tropical and temperate forests in Mesoamerica (H15, H16) ( [[#Mendoza-Ponce--2018\|Mendoza-Ponce et al., 2018]] ; [[#Mendoza-Ponce--2019\|Mendoza-Ponce et al., 2019]] ). Endemic species face consistent risks of decrease in suitable habitat in the Atlantic Forest (H47) ( [[#Vale--2018\|Vale et al., 2018]] ), Cerrado (H44) ( [[#Vasconcelos--2014\|Vasconcelos, 2014]] ), Tumbes-Chocó-Magdalena (H28, H23) ( [[#Hermes--2018\|Hermes et al., 2018]] ), and Mesoamerica (H15, H16) ( [[#Garcia--2014\|Garcia et al., 2014]] ; [[#Ramírez-Amezcua--2016\|Ramírez-Amezcua et al., 2016]] ). Climate change may also benefit invasive plant species in terms of range expansion ( [[#Wang--2017\|Wang et al., 2017]] ) and physiology ( [[#de%20Faria--2018\|de Faria et al., 2018]] ) in the region.

IPCC:AR6/WGII/Cross-Chapter-Paper-1 - Revision history

Laura at 08:49, 22 May 2026

Laura: Laura moved page IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Ccp1 to IPCC:AR6/WGII/Cross-Chapter-Paper-1 without leaving a redirect

Laura: #119

Laura: /* Cross-Chapter Paper 1: Biodiversity Hotspots */

imported>Design: /* Cross-Chapter Paper 1: Biodiversity Hotspots */