IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-6 - Revision history

Laura at 08:54, 22 May 2026

2026-05-22T08:54:53Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 08:54, 22 May 2026
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			{{ChapterNavigation
			\| cover = Cover-WGIII.jpg
			\| reporturl = IPCC:AR6/WGIII
			\| reporttitle = WGIII
			\| prevurl = IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-5
			\| nexturl = IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-7
			}}

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Laura: Laura moved page IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-6 to IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-6 without leaving a redirect

2026-05-18T18:33:00Z

Laura moved page IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-6 to IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-6 without leaving a redirect

← Older revision	Revision as of 18:33, 18 May 2026
(No difference)

Laura: #119

2026-05-18T06:17:56Z

#119

← Older revision		Revision as of 06:17, 18 May 2026
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	[[File:5ec8b0d59f00b48c67dd6f5f48689909 IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Box_6_1_Figure_1.png]]		[[File:5ec8b0d59f00b48c67dd6f5f48689909 IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Box_6_1_Figure_1.png]]

	~~'''~~'''Box 6.1, Figure 1 \| Measuring access to energy.''' Source: with permission from ESMAP-World Bank 2015.~~'''~~		'''Box 6.1, Figure 1 \| Measuring access to energy.''' Source: with permission from ESMAP-World Bank 2015.

	Research indicates that decentralised and on-grid renewables are likely the least cost options to provide universal access to electricity by 2030 ( [[#6.4.2\|Section 6.4.2]] ). Natural gas, LPG, and improved biomass cookstoves are the most important options for cooking. Universal access to electricity and clean cooking requires a rapid shift from traditional biomass to cleaner fuels and/or clean cooking technologies ( [[#IEA--2020\|IEA et al. 2020]] ). It has been estimated that the provision of electricity and clean cooking for all would require USD786 billion in cumulative investment to 2030, equal to 3.4% of total energy sector investment over the period ( [[#IEA--2017\|IEA 2017]] ).		Research indicates that decentralised and on-grid renewables are likely the least cost options to provide universal access to electricity by 2030 ( [[#6.4.2\|Section 6.4.2]] ). Natural gas, LPG, and improved biomass cookstoves are the most important options for cooking. Universal access to electricity and clean cooking requires a rapid shift from traditional biomass to cleaner fuels and/or clean cooking technologies ( [[#IEA--2020\|IEA et al. 2020]] ). It has been estimated that the provision of electricity and clean cooking for all would require USD786 billion in cumulative investment to 2030, equal to 3.4% of total energy sector investment over the period ( [[#IEA--2017\|IEA 2017]] ).
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	[[File:efa6e743ecbd1a3e0a5776e6ed321118 IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Box_6_2_Figure_1.png]]		[[File:efa6e743ecbd1a3e0a5776e6ed321118 IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Box_6_2_Figure_1.png]]

	~~'''~~'''Box 6.2, Figure~~'''~~''' '''1 \| Retirement of coal-fired power plants to limit warming to 1.''' '''5°C and 2°C or lower. (a)''' Historical facility age at retirement, '''(b)''' the vintage year of existing units, '''(c)''' global coal capacity under different plant lifetimes, compared to capacity levels consistent with a well-below 2°C (green) and 1.5°C (blue) pathway assuming no new coal plants, and '''(d)''' and assuming plants currently under construction come online as scheduled, but those in planning or permitting stages are not built. Source: with permission from [[#Cui--2019\|Cui et al. (2019)]] .		'''Box 6.2, Figure''' '''1 \| Retirement of coal-fired power plants to limit warming to 1.''' '''5°C and 2°C or lower. (a)''' Historical facility age at retirement, '''(b)''' the vintage year of existing units, '''(c)''' global coal capacity under different plant lifetimes, compared to capacity levels consistent with a well-below 2°C (green) and 1.5°C (blue) pathway assuming no new coal plants, and '''(d)''' and assuming plants currently under construction come online as scheduled, but those in planning or permitting stages are not built. Source: with permission from [[#Cui--2019\|Cui et al. (2019)]] .

	Between 2015 and 2019, global coal power capacity grew by 146 GW, or 7.6%, as new builds offset retirements in some countries (Global Energy Monitor et al. 2021). Meanwhile, an increasing number of countries and regions have committed to or operationalised coal phase-outs ( [[#Jewell--2019\|Jewell et al. 2019]] ; [[#Watts--2019\|Watts et al. 2019]] ; [[#Littlecott--2021\|Littlecott et al. 2021]] ). Actions are being taken by various international and sub-national actors, including national and sub-national governments, public and private power companies, and financial institutions and pension funds that have committed not to fund new coal or coal-based infrastructure ( [[#yan%20Nie--2016\|yan Nie et al. 2016]] ; [[#Buckley--2019\|Buckley 2019]] ; [[#Auger--2021\|Auger et al. 2021]] ). Although these initial efforts are not yet sufficient in limiting warming to 1.5°C, and most have occurred in regions with older coal fleets, these examples provide insight into possible coal phase-out strategies ( [[#Spencer--2018\|Spencer et al. 2018]] ) and help identify the mechanisms driving the move away from coal, such as market, technology, policy, or other societal objectives. They also enable better understanding of the possible character of oil and gas phase-downs that would ultimately be needed to limit warming two well below 2°C ( [[#6.7.4\|Section 6.7.4]] ) ( [[#Raimi--2019\|Raimi et al. 2019]] ).		Between 2015 and 2019, global coal power capacity grew by 146 GW, or 7.6%, as new builds offset retirements in some countries (Global Energy Monitor et al. 2021). Meanwhile, an increasing number of countries and regions have committed to or operationalised coal phase-outs ( [[#Jewell--2019\|Jewell et al. 2019]] ; [[#Watts--2019\|Watts et al. 2019]] ; [[#Littlecott--2021\|Littlecott et al. 2021]] ). Actions are being taken by various international and sub-national actors, including national and sub-national governments, public and private power companies, and financial institutions and pension funds that have committed not to fund new coal or coal-based infrastructure ( [[#yan%20Nie--2016\|yan Nie et al. 2016]] ; [[#Buckley--2019\|Buckley 2019]] ; [[#Auger--2021\|Auger et al. 2021]] ). Although these initial efforts are not yet sufficient in limiting warming to 1.5°C, and most have occurred in regions with older coal fleets, these examples provide insight into possible coal phase-out strategies ( [[#Spencer--2018\|Spencer et al. 2018]] ) and help identify the mechanisms driving the move away from coal, such as market, technology, policy, or other societal objectives. They also enable better understanding of the possible character of oil and gas phase-downs that would ultimately be needed to limit warming two well below 2°C ( [[#6.7.4\|Section 6.7.4]] ) ( [[#Raimi--2019\|Raimi et al. 2019]] ).
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	[[File:a447ebe15e6bb3829482689cf40250db IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Box_6_11_Figure_1.png]]		[[File:a447ebe15e6bb3829482689cf40250db IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Box_6_11_Figure_1.png]]
	~~'''~~'''Box 6.11, Figure 1 \| Illustrative Mitigation ~~Pathw'''''' '''ay~~ 2.~~''' '''~~0-Neg: Latin America & Caribbean (LAM) in a scenario that limits warming to 2°C (>67%) (LAM net-zero economy 2040–2045, net-zero energy system 2045–2050).''' Supply-side focus with growing dependency on carbon dioxide removal and agriculture, forestry and other land-use (AFOLU), thus achieves net-zero CO 2 relatively early.
			'''Box 6.11, Figure 1 \| Illustrative Mitigation Pathway 2.0-Neg: Latin America & Caribbean (LAM) in a scenario that limits warming to 2°C (>67%) (LAM net-zero economy 2040–2045, net-zero energy system 2045–2050).''' Supply-side focus with growing dependency on carbon dioxide removal and agriculture, forestry and other land-use (AFOLU), thus achieves net-zero CO 2 relatively early.

	<div id="_idContainer011z" class="Boxes_Blue-Boxes_•-Box-body"></div>		<div id="_idContainer011z" class="Boxes_Blue-Boxes_•-Box-body"></div>

	[[File:39e5c3dc51e7db58657bd74842372431 IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Box_6_11_Figure_2.png]]		[[File:39e5c3dc51e7db58657bd74842372431 IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Box_6_11_Figure_2.png]]
	~~'''~~'''Box 6.11, Figure 2 \| Illustrative Mitigation ~~Pathwa'''''' '''y~~ 1.''' '''5-Renewables: Africa (AF) in a scenario that limts warming to 1.5°C (>50%) (AF net-zero economy, 2055–2060, AF net-zero energy system 2055–2060).''' Rapid expansion of non-biomass renewables, high electrification, and a fossil fuel phase-out.		'''Box 6.11, Figure 2 \| Illustrative Mitigation Pathway 1.''' '''5-Renewables: Africa (AF) in a scenario that limts warming to 1.5°C (>50%) (AF net-zero economy, 2055–2060, AF net-zero energy system 2055–2060).''' Rapid expansion of non-biomass renewables, high electrification, and a fossil fuel phase-out.

	<div id="_idContainer0113z" class="Boxes_Blue-Boxes_•-Box-body"></div>		<div id="_idContainer0113z" class="Boxes_Blue-Boxes_•-Box-body"></div>

	[[File:6cbcfefdce0ab46d5cc843d9b0a909b4 IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Box_6_11_Figure_3.png]]		[[File:6cbcfefdce0ab46d5cc843d9b0a909b4 IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Box_6_11_Figure_3.png]]
	~~'''~~'''Box 6.11, Figure 3 \| Illustrative Mitigation ~~Pathw'''''' '''ay~~ 1.~~''' '''~~5-Low Demand: Developed Countries (DEV) in a scenario that limits warming to 1.5°C (>50%) (DEV net-zero economy, 2055–2060, net-zero energy system 2075–2080).''' Major reduction of energy demand, high electrification, and gradual fossil fuel phase-out.
			'''Box 6.11, Figure 3 \| Illustrative Mitigation Pathway 1.5-Low Demand: Developed Countries (DEV) in a scenario that limits warming to 1.5°C (>50%) (DEV net-zero economy, 2055–2060, net-zero energy system 2075–2080).''' Major reduction of energy demand, high electrification, and gradual fossil fuel phase-out.

	<div id="_idContainer011zz" class="Boxes_Blue-Boxes_•-Box-body"></div>		<div id="_idContainer011zz" class="Boxes_Blue-Boxes_•-Box-body"></div>

	[[File:4b02c94c8dcb84edba0195cf66e605a7 IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Box_6_11_Figure_4.png]]		[[File:4b02c94c8dcb84edba0195cf66e605a7 IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Box_6_11_Figure_4.png]]
	''''''Box 6.11, Figure 4 \| Illustrative Mitigation Pa'''''' '''thway 1.''' '''5-Shifting Pathways:''' Asia and Pacific '''(''' '''APC) in a scenario that limits warming to 1.5°C (>50%) (APC net-zero economy, 2075–2080, net-zero energy system 2090–2095).''' Renewables, high electrification, fossil fuel phase-out and low agriculture, forestry and other land-use (AFOLU) emissions. Reaches net-zero CO 2 relatively late.

	''''''Box 6.11, Table 1 \| Summary of selected Illustrative Mitigation Pathways energy system characteristics in 2050 for the chosen regions.~~'''~~'''		'''Box 6.11, Figure 4 \| Illustrative Mitigation Pathway 1.5-Shifting Pathways:''' Asia and Pacific '''(''' '''APC) in a scenario that limits warming to 1.5°C (>50%) (APC net-zero economy, 2075–2080, net-zero energy system 2090–2095).''' Renewables, high electrification, fossil fuel phase-out and low agriculture, forestry and other land-use (AFOLU) emissions. Reaches net-zero CO 2 relatively late.

			'''Box 6.11, Table 1 \| Summary of selected Illustrative Mitigation Pathways energy system characteristics in 2050 for the chosen regions.'''

	{\| class="wikitable"		{\| class="wikitable"

Laura: /* Chapter 6: Energy systems */

2026-05-13T14:41:45Z

Chapter 6: Energy systems

← Older revision		Revision as of 14:41, 13 May 2026
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	<div id="chapter-authors"></div>		<div id="chapter-authors"></div>

	Coordinating Lead Authors:		'''Coordinating Lead Authors:'''

	Leon Clarke (the United States of America), Yi-Ming Wei (China)		Leon Clarke (the United States of America), Yi-Ming Wei (China)

	Lead Authors:		'''Lead Authors:'''

	Angel De La Vega Navarro (Mexico), Amit Garg (India), Andrea N. Hahmann (Chile/Denmark), Smail Khennas (Algeria), Inês Margarida Lima de Azevedo (the United States of America/Portugal), Andreas Löschel (Germany), Ajay Kumar Singh (India), Linda Steg (the Netherlands), Goran Strbac (Serbia/United Kingdom), Kenichi Wada (Japan)		Angel De La Vega Navarro (Mexico), Amit Garg (India), Andrea N. Hahmann (Chile/Denmark), Smail Khennas (Algeria), Inês Margarida Lima de Azevedo (the United States of America/Portugal), Andreas Löschel (Germany), Ajay Kumar Singh (India), Linda Steg (the Netherlands), Goran Strbac (Serbia/United Kingdom), Kenichi Wada (Japan)

	Contributing Authors:		'''Contributing Authors:'''

	Hossein Ameli (Germany), Nils Angliviel de La Beaumelle (France/the United States of America), John Bistline (the United States of America), Edward Byers (Austria/Ireland), Katherine Calvin (the United States of America), Kiran Chawla (India), Yiyun Ryna Cui (China), Steven J. Davis (the United States of America), Julianne DeAngelo (the United States of America), Subash Dhar (India/Denmark), Jacqueline Sophie Edge (South Africa/United Kingdom), Robert Germeshausen (Germany), Mohamad Hejazi (Syria/United States of America), Gokul Iyer (India), Louise Jeffery (United Kingdom), Matti Juhani Koivisto (Finland/Denmark), Gunnar Luderer (Germany), David McCollum (the United States of America), Matteo Muratori (Italy), Gregory F. Nemet (the United States of America/Canada), Omkar Patange (India), Mónica Santillán Vera (Mexico), Udayan Singh (India), Benjamin Kenneth Sovacool (Denmark/United Kingdom), Loreta Stankeviciute (Lithuania), Falko Ueckerdt (Germany), Cintia B. Uvo (Brazil/Sweden/Italy), Heleen van Soest (the Netherlands), Janet Veldstra (the Netherlands)		Hossein Ameli (Germany), Nils Angliviel de La Beaumelle (France/the United States of America), John Bistline (the United States of America), Edward Byers (Austria/Ireland), Katherine Calvin (the United States of America), Kiran Chawla (India), Yiyun Ryna Cui (China), Steven J. Davis (the United States of America), Julianne DeAngelo (the United States of America), Subash Dhar (India/Denmark), Jacqueline Sophie Edge (South Africa/United Kingdom), Robert Germeshausen (Germany), Mohamad Hejazi (Syria/United States of America), Gokul Iyer (India), Louise Jeffery (United Kingdom), Matti Juhani Koivisto (Finland/Denmark), Gunnar Luderer (Germany), David McCollum (the United States of America), Matteo Muratori (Italy), Gregory F. Nemet (the United States of America/Canada), Omkar Patange (India), Mónica Santillán Vera (Mexico), Udayan Singh (India), Benjamin Kenneth Sovacool (Denmark/United Kingdom), Loreta Stankeviciute (Lithuania), Falko Ueckerdt (Germany), Cintia B. Uvo (Brazil/Sweden/Italy), Heleen van Soest (the Netherlands), Janet Veldstra (the Netherlands)

	Review Editors:		'''Review Editors:'''

	Joseph Kow Essandoh-Yeddu (Ghana), Arthur Lee (the United States of America)		Joseph Kow Essandoh-Yeddu (Ghana), Arthur Lee (the United States of America)

	Chapter Scientists:		'''Chapter Scientists:'''

	Rong Han (China), Daniel Alejandro Pacheco-Rojas (Mexico), Biying Yu (China)		Rong Han (China), Daniel Alejandro Pacheco-Rojas (Mexico), Biying Yu (China)
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	<div id="chapter-citation"></div>		<div id="chapter-citation"></div>

	This chapter should be cited as:		'''This chapter should be cited as:'''

	Clarke, L., Y.-M. Wei, A. De La Vega Navarro, A. Garg, A.N. Hahmann, S. Khennas, I.M.L. Azevedo, A. Löschel, A.K. Singh, L. Steg, G. Strbac, K. Wada, 2022: Energy Systems. In IPCC, 2022: Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, R. Slade, A. Al Khourdajie, R. van Diemen, D. McCollum, M. Pathak, S. Some, P. Vyas, R. Fradera, M. Belkacemi, A. Hasija, G. Lisboa, S. Luz, J. Malley, (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA. doi: 10.1017/9781009157926.008.		Clarke, L., Y.-M. Wei, A. De La Vega Navarro, A. Garg, A.N. Hahmann, S. Khennas, I.M.L. Azevedo, A. Löschel, A.K. Singh, L. Steg, G. Strbac, K. Wada, 2022: Energy Systems. In IPCC, 2022: Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, R. Slade, A. Al Khourdajie, R. van Diemen, D. McCollum, M. Pathak, S. Some, P. Vyas, R. Fradera, M. Belkacemi, A. Hasija, G. Lisboa, S. Luz, J. Malley, (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA. doi: 10.1017/9781009157926.008.

imported>Design: /* References */

2026-05-11T09:34:17Z

References

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